2. The Diffusion of Mobile Phones in the Historical Context of Innovations from Developed Countries

This first chapter on diffusion is a broad introduction to the topic in the historical context of innovations from the developed countries. The analytical framework comprises the well-known s-shaped curve associated with Rogers, which posits that the diffusion process goes through a number of different phases, ending up with ‘late adopters’ (i.e. the lowest deciles of the population). But whereas this curve well approximates what occurs in the developed countries, it is not an adequate representation of diffusion in the developing world. For there, typically, the process is aborted much earlier and innovations rarely penetrate beyond a quarter of the population (a narrow group in the urban, formal sector of the economy). It is against this background that the near diametrically opposite experience of mobile phones needs to be viewed. Even in the poorest countries, for example, the subscription rate for this technology is on average more than 50 %. This unusual experience is attributed here mainly to leapfrogging—that is, the bypassing of older generations of technology and moving straight to the new. This proposition is examined further in Chap. 4.