The driving forces behind the Caspian Sea mean water level oscillations

Closed basins such as the Caspian Sea rapidly respond to variations in atmospheric and geological events. This study has been conducted to deduce the role of natural and anthropogenic influences on the Caspian Sea mean water level fluctuations for the period of 1998–2005. It is recognized that climate is the primary mechanism of the Caspian Sea mean water level variations based on the relatively small differences of the Caspian Sea hydrologic budget residuals and the Caspian Sea mean water level fluctuations. This is further supported by the similarity in water-level variations of the Caspian Sea with those of Lake Van and Lake Urmia. On the other hand, the Caspian Sea needed to lose some of its water to attain water balance equilibrium in 2000 and 2001. The year 2000 showed anomalous seismic activity particularly in the southwestern part of the Caspian Sea. Two significant earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.8 and 6.5 M_w occurred on November 25, 2000. The focal mechanisms of these earthquakes and numerous aftershocks indicated normal faulting and, therefore, caused the Caspian Sea lake level to decline in 2000. The contribution of submarine mud volcano eruptions to the Caspian Sea lake level could be insignificant based on the comparison of water budget residuals and the mean water level variations. Neither crustal deformation (based on the GPS measurements) nor the offshore oil and natural gas production activities in the Caspian Sea are responsible for noticeable changes to the level of the Caspian Sea.