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2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

5. The Impact of the EU Cohesion Policy Spending: A Model-Based Assessment

verfasst von : János Varga, Jan in ’t Veld

Erschienen in: Does EU Membership Facilitate Convergence? The Experience of the EU's Eastern Enlargement - Volume II

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

EU cohesion policy supports investment in infrastructure, R&D and human capital in Europe’s poorer regions. This chapter summarises model-based assessments of the potential macro-economic impact of these fiscal transfers using a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium model with semi-endogenous growth and human capital accumulation. It gives an overview of total cohesion spending over the three programme periods from 2000 to 2020. The simulations show the potential benefits of Structural Funds with significant output gains in the long run due to sizeable productivity improvements.

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Vorheriges Kapitel The Impact of EU Cohesion Funds on Macroeconomic Developments in the Visegrád Countries After the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis

Nächstes Kapitel Models of Financial Integration: The Experience of the Baltics and Central Eastern Europe

Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich

The QUEST III model is used by the Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission for economic policy analysis. For further references, see: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/research/macroeconomic_models_en.htm

In earlier applications the model has been applied in an evaluation of Cohesion Policy over the 2000–06 and 2007–13 programme periods (see Varga and in ’t Veld, 2011a, b).

The EU11 includes Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland (all joined in 2004), Bulgaria, Romania (joined in 2007) and Croatia (joined in 2013). Cyprus and Malta also joined in 2004 but are excluded from the EU11 aggregate of formerly communist countries.

For illustrative purposes, it is also more representative to focus on a single programming period for two reasons. First, the classification of spending subcategories had changed between the programming periods; second, due to the delayed transfers of the funds, there is an overlap between the spending across the programming periods. For these two reasons, the comparison of spending categories is not straightforward across the programming periods.

One difference with previous applications of this model to cohesion spending is the assumed share of liquidity-constrained households. In Varga and in ’t Veld (2011b) this was set equal to the share of low-skilled workers, but due to cross-country differences in skill definitions this yielded large variations in this parameter. Currently, we set this share to 0.4, which is at the top end of the range of estimated values for the share of non-Ricardian behaviour in DSGE models which typically ranges from 0.25 to 0.4. A sensitivity analysis reported in Varga and in ’t Veld (2011b) showed that the values of this parameter had no significant impact on results, because the spending is financed by transfers from abroad and hence does not affect expected future tax liabilities.

Note that high-skilled labour in the final goods sector L_HYt is total high-skilled employment minus the high-skilled labour working in the R&D sector (L_{A, t}).

See Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995).

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D’Auria F., A. Pagano, M. Ratto and J. Varga (2009), “A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states: Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth”. European Economy Economic Paper no. 392. Brussels.

Dixit, A. K. and Stiglitz, J. E. (1977). Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity. American Economic Review, 67(3):297–308.

European Commission. (2017). My Region, My Europe, Our Future. Sixth Report on Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.

Herve, Y., & Holzmann, R. (1998). Fiscal Transfers and Economic Convergence in the EU: An Analysis of Absorption Problems and an Evaluation of the Literature. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft.

in ’t Veld, J, Varga, J., & Roeger, W. (2018). The Impact of Structural Reforms in the EU. In J. de Haan & J. Parlevliet (Eds.), Structural Reforms. Cham: Springer. 10.1007/978-3-319-74400-1_4.

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Jones, C. I. (2002). Source of U.S. economic growth in a world of ideas. American Economic Review, 92(1):220–239.

Roeger W, Varga J, & in ’t Veld J. (2008). Structural Reforms in the EU: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the QUEST Model with Endogenous Growth. European economy Economic Papers 351. Brussels.

Tóth, I. J., & Hajdu, M. (2020). Chapter 9: Corruption, Institutions and Convergence. In M. Landesmann & I. P. Székely (Eds.), Does EU Membership Facilitate Convergence? The Experience of the EU’s Eastern Enlargement (Vol. II). Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.

Varga, J., & in ’t Veld, J. (2011a). Cohesion Policy Spending in the New Member States of the EU in an Endogenous Growth Model. Eastern European Economics, 49(5), 29–54. 10.2753/EEE0012-8775490502. Also published as ECFIN European Economy Economic Paper, no. 422. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp422_en.pdf.

Varga, J., & in ’t Veld, J. (2011b). A Model-based Analysis of the Impact of Cohesion Policy Expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III Endogenous R&D Model. Economic Modelling, 28, 647–663. Also Published as ECFIN European Economy Economic Paper, no. 387.

Titel: The Impact of the EU Cohesion Policy Spending: A Model-Based Assessment
verfasst von: János Varga
Jan in ’t Veld
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Does EU Membership Facilitate Convergence? The Experience of the EU's Eastern Enlargement - Volume II
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-57701-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-57702-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57702-5_5

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