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Social Indicators Research

Erschienen in:

01.11.2007

The inter-temporal aspect of well-being and societal progress

verfasst von: Pavle Sicherl

Erschienen in: Social Indicators Research | Ausgabe 2/2007

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Abstract

The perceptions on well-being and societal progress are influenced also by the quantitative indicators and measures used in the measurement, presentation and semantics of discussing these issues. The article presents a novel generic statistical measure S-time-distance, with clear interpretability that delivers a broader concept to look at data, to understand and compare situations. This methodology can provide a new insight to many problems, an additional statistical measure, and a presentation tool for policy analysis and debate expressed in time units, readily understood by policy makers, media and general public. The benefits of this new view in comparisons, competitiveness issues, benchmarking, target setting and monitoring for economic, employment, social, R&D and environment indicators at the world, OECD, EU, country, regional, city, sector, socio-economic groups, company, project, household and individual levels could be immediately applied to a wide variety of substantive fields at macro and micro levels using existing data and indicator systems from international, national, state, city and local sources. These suggestions are illustrated by comparisons between EU15 and USA.

Vorheriger Artikel Measuring longevity achievements under welfare interdependencies: a case for joint life expectancy indicators

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The generic concept of S-time-distance has a wide area of possible application (see e.g. Sicherl, 1994, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c). Granger finds the concept a useful addition to the present state-of-the-art (Granger & Jeon, 1997). They used the idea of time distance as a criterion for evaluating forecasting models (Granger & Jeon, 2003a, 2003b).

See also Sicherl (2004c).

For details see Sicherl (2002), also on possible multiple time intersections.

‘As Sicherl (1973, 1993) proposes ... observed time distance is a dynamic measure of temporal disparity between the two series intuitively clear, readily measurable, and in transparent units ... It is suggested that one should complement conventional vertical measures with horizontal measures’. …‘Sicherl’s several works have presented a non-technical discussion of the theory of time-distance. This concept can help us to think more clearly about the forecastibility of series’ (Granger & Jeon, 1997). They also analysed four models of inflation in the USA not only with the standard method of average squared deviations between the projected and actual values, but also with the time distance method deviations, which produced significantly different results (Granger & Jeon, 2003b).

For instance, for GDP per capita for the EU15 and US are compared in such a way that for any level of the EU15 one searches in the time series for the US in which year the same level was achieved and subtracts the two times involved (level for EU15 in 2003 equals level of the US in 1985, S-time-distance being 18 years as time lag for the EU15 or −18 years as time lead for the US for that level of the indicator).

The value judgment that people attach to the time dimension of disparities and to the static dimension of disparity is an open question for interdisciplinary research. However, it may be safe to assume that a situation with 50% static difference and time distance of 10 years is preferable to the situation with the same static difference and time distance of 40 years displayed in Fig. 1. As mentioned before, the conventional analysis based on only ratios, percentage differences, Gini coefficients or Theil indexes alone does not distinguish such situations as different degrees of disparity.

The simultaneous two-dimensional comparisons of time series data, vertically (standard measures of static difference) as well as horizontally (Sicherl-time-distance), can be also a very practical application tool for monitoring Lisbon and Growth and Jobs Strategy targets in the EU. The results for the 2001–2004 period have shown that the Barcelona target for R&D in GDP was nearly 4 years behind the implied path to target; for employment rate and GDP growth about 2 years behind the original Lisbon targets. The time distance information complements the conventional percentage difference in providing a realistic perception of the progress in implementation or the lack of it. The application for monitoring implementation of the UN Millennium Development Goals in the time dimension is underway.

Atkinson, A. B., & Brandolini, A. (2004, August). Global world inequality: Absolute, relative or intermediary? (Paper presented at the 28th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Cork, Ireland), http://www.iariw.org

Cairncross, F. (1998). The death of distance, how the communications revolution will change our lives. (London: Orion Business Books)

Giovannini, E. (2005). ‘Foreword’ in Statistics, knowledge and policy: Key indicators to inform decision making. (Paris: OECD)

Granger, C. W. J., & Jeon, Y. (1997). Measuring lag structure in forecasting models: The introduction of time distance, Discussion paper No. 97–24. (San Diego: University of California)

Granger, C. W. J., & Jeon, Y. (2003a). A time-distance criterion for evaluating forecasting models. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 199–215CrossRef

Granger, C. W. J., & Jeon, Y. (2003b). Comparing forecasts of inflation using time distance. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 339–349

Kakwani, N. C. (1980). Income inequality and poverty, methods of estimation and policy applications. (New York: Oxford University Press)

Martinho, G. (2005). Interview with Pavle Sicherl in the Semanario Economico, Lisbon, March 18, 2005

OECD (2005). OECD world forum on key indicators: Proposals for follow-up, STD/DO(2005)60, Chief Statistician and Director, Statistics Directorate, Paris

Sen, A. K. (1973). On economic inequality. (Oxford: Clarendon Press)

Sicherl, P. (1973). Time distance as a dynamic measure of disparities in social and economic development. Kyklos XXVI, Fasc, 3, 559–575

Sicherl, P. (1989). Methods of measuring disparity between men and women: A technical report. (Santo Domingo: United Nations International Research and Training Institute for the Advancement of Women)

Sicherl, P. (1992). Integrating comparisons across time and space: Methodology and applications to disparities within Yugoslavia. Journal of Public Policy, 12, 4CrossRef

Sicherl, P. (1993). Integrating comparisons across time and space, methodology and applications to disparities within Yugoslavia. Studies in Public Policy, No. 213. (Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde)

Sicherl, P. (1994). Time distance as an additional measure of discrepancy between actual and estimated values in time series models. International Symposium on Economic Modelling, Washington D.C., The World Bank. (Ljubljana: Sicenter)

Sicherl, P. (1997). Time distance measure in economic modelling. International Symposium on Economic Modelling in London, University of London, July 23–25. (Ljubljana: Sicenter)

Sicherl, P. (1999). A new view in comparative analysis. IB Revija, XXXIII, 1

Sicherl, P. (2002, July). Time distance: A missing link in comparative analysis. (Paper presented at the XV. World Congress of Sociology, Brisbane)

Sicherl, P. (2004a). Time-distance analysis: Method and applications, eWisdom, Vol. 2a

Sicherl, P. (2004b). Comparing in two dimensions: A broader concept and a novel statistical measure of the time dimension of disparities. European Societies, 6(2), 181–203CrossRef

Sicherl, P. (2004c, August). Time distance: A missing link in comparative analysis. (Paper presented at the 28th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. (Cork, Ireland), http://www.iariw.org)

Sicherl, P. (2005). A comparison of European and US economies based on time distances. (Brussels: Eurochambres)

Whitman, W. (1973). [1945], On the beach at night alone. (In Mark van Doren (Ed.), The portable Walt Whitman. (New York: The Viking Press))

Titel: The inter-temporal aspect of well-being and societal progress
verfasst von: Pavle Sicherl
Publikationsdatum: 01.11.2007
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in: Social Indicators Research / Ausgabe 2/2007
Print ISSN: 0303-8300
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-0921
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-006-9083-1

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