Why History Repeats Itself
You got to be careful if you don’t know where you’re going, because you might not get there.—Yogi Berra
On Safe Silence, Bias, and Dissent
To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a postmortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of.—Ronald Fisher
When personal judgment is inoperative (or forbidden), men’s first concern is not how to choose, but how to justify their choice.—Ayn Rand
In the space of two days I had evolved two plans, wholly distinct, both of which were equally feasible. The point I am trying to bring out is that one does not plan and then try to make circumstances fit those plans. One tries to make plans fit the circumstances.—George Patton
There’s No Risk of Accident for Someone Who Is Dead
Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.—Mohandas K. Gandhi
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Settle on a period, in months or years, after which it might be known whether a plan was well formulated. Imagine the period has expired: the plan is a fiasco and has spawned dire consequences; what could have caused this?
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Request each team member to suggest 10 reasons for failure, particularly those that he or she would never bring up for fear of being impolite—sensitive issues might be divulged anonymously. Reasons can also be found in the external environment, not just the organizational context, organizational knowledge, and inter-and intra-organizational relationship to which priority attention is habitually given. Starting with the team leader, ask each team member to voice one reason from his or her list. Everyone should mention a reason in turn until all have been revealed and recorded.
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After the session is over, gather and prioritize the comprehensive list of reasons that grew out of collective knowledge.
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Look for ways to strengthen the plan by avoiding or mitigating essential drivers of failure, beginning with the two or three items deemed of greatest concern.