Tools for Estimation of “Deterministic Chaos” of Economic Sectoral Mesodynamic

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the methodology and develop tools for evaluating the indicators’ dynamics of Russian regions’ industries. Sectoral mesodynamic is considered as open, nonlinear and weakly structured. The synergetic principle of “deterministic chaos” and the econophysics models are implemented for modeling. Approbation by the authors on the exploration mesodynamic data of 12 main sectors over 78 Russian regions during the period from 2005 to 2017. Tre results demonstrate a great adequacy of the applied tools, outlined a set of directions for its development and areas of possible application, including socio-dynamics. The prospects of applying nonlinear trends, mainly logistic ones, are shown. E.Slutsky’s theorem on modeling medium-term business cycles by the sum of three harmonics with non-multiple frequencies is confirmed. The adequacy of trajectories’ modeling is provided by supplementing the known structures of mesodynamic trajectories with additive-multiplicative interactions, and considering the stochastic component as a mixture of distributions with heavy tails. Exploratory results showed heterogeneity of institutional and economic development of regions, which creates imbalances in economic cycles, allowing to make forecasts for the development of regional economies, to form knowledge bases to characterize the cause-and-effect relationships of economic theory.