Transitions in land use and cover and their dynamic mechanisms in the Haihe River Basin, China

In this study, 1-km gridded land use maps from 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 were used to analyze transitions in the spatial distribution and land use/cover in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) of China. The patterns of changes in land use/cover were characterized by an increase in rural–urban industrial lands and decreases in cropland, forestland, grassland, water, and unused land. Meanwhile, the land use/cover in 93% of the area in the HRB remained unchanged from 1980 to 2015. The results of a multi-temporal analysis of transition pathways from and to different land use/cover classes clearly revealed the transitional process of each class. Further analysis of the dynamic mechanisms underlying the five most common transitions showed that croplands in the areas with better locations (proximal to a city), traffic (near roads), topography (low altitude and flat terrain), and hydrology (close to a river) and rapid economic and population growth were likely to be changed into construction lands. Grasslands in areas at low altitude, over flat terrain, near a city, and with decreasing rainfall were easily changed to croplands, and croplands and forestlands in areas with unfavorable topographic (high altitude and uneven terrain) and hydrological (far from a river) conditions were likely to be converted into grasslands.