Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Earthquakes

First it must be clarified that “prediction of earthquakes” means usually the estimate of time of origin, place and magnitude of an event, whereas “prediction of hazard” means assessment of the intensity of impact (ground motion) caused either by a single extreme event or by the whole family of events affecting a certain locality. The second category includes “prediction of seismicity”, i.e. the estimate of the level of future earthquake activity, e.g. in terms of the number of events of different magnitude and of the upper threshold magnitude event, during a given time interval.