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Erschienen in:
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2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

8. Validation of Computable General Equilibrium Based Models

verfasst von : Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole, Eric Warren

Erschienen in: Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters

Verlag: Springer Singapore

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Abstract

Model validation in economics is more difficult than in other disciplines, especially at the macroeconomic level. It is not subject to controlled experiments because it involves independent individual decision-makers and their interactions in the context of background conditions, such as changes business cycles and technological change, many of which are random or otherwise difficult to predict. Economics is more of an “observational” discipline like meteorology, astronomy, or sociology, and must therefore use approaches such as statistical analysis of data or simulation approaches.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Uncertainty Analysis
Nächstes Kapitel E-CAT User Interface Tool
Fußnoten
1
Econometric methods are often considered superior because they involve more extensive data (e.g., a time series, as opposed to data for a single year) and yield “goodness of fit” measures.
 
2
“Overfitting is an issue that exists in in statistics and machine learning. It occurs when a statistical model describes random error or noise instead of the underlying relationship. Overfitting generally occurs when a model is excessively complex, such as having too many parameters relative to the number of observations. A model that has been overfit will generally have poor predictive performance, as it can exaggerate minor fluctuations in the data.”
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Validation of Computable General Equilibrium Based Models
verfasst von
Adam Rose
Fynnwin Prager
Zhenhua Chen
Samrat Chatterjee
Dan Wei
Nathaniel Heatwole
Eric Warren
Copyright-Jahr
2017
Verlag
Springer Singapore
Buch
Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters

Print ISBN: 978-981-10-2566-2

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-10-2567-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2017

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9_8