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2014 | Buch

The Social and Ecological Limits to Growth Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future

Volume 2

verfasst von: Grzegorz W. Kolodko

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

The study deals with challenging questions of long-term future of global economy and the mankind. Focusing not only on what happens in the economic sphere but also on cultural, social, political, demographic, technological, and ecological processes. It employs a holistic approach to answer fundamental questions about the course of the future.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Threats and Opportunities: Which Prevail?

Frontmatter
8. The Social and Ecological Limits to Growth
Abstract
The world must slow down. This may sound bizarre at a time of crisis but when the present one is over, to avoid the next one being even bigger, we’d better not try to aim for an exaggerated pace of growth as this can trigger an utter loss of balance. The rate and limits to economic growth is the fifth of the Great Issues for the Future. Why? Perhaps technological progress will indeed prove to be so powerful that we can walk into the future the same way we went through the past: more and faster, but with a falling material intensity and declining energy consumption? Perhaps the economic and environmental Cassandras are wrong to foretell that we will run short of one thing or another?
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
9. One More Völkerwanderung
Abstract
Just as the outlines of respective countries would be changing on the economic map if country areas were based on the volume of their output, the situation would be similar for a demographic map. If the population of countries and continents determined their sizes, then the future territories shown on such a map would have significantly different shape to what they have today. Some, like India and Pakistan, would be growing very fast, others, like Europe or Indonesia, almost imperceptibly, and the area of yet some others, like that of Japan and Canada, would be shrinking, as the dynamic of population processes will be unfolding differently for different countries. This stems from a number of cultural and economic reasons, on the one hand, and has far-reaching consequences, also political ones, on the other hand. Demographic processes and human migration is the Seventh Great Issue for the Future.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
10. The Poor and the Rich
Abstract
What matters most is to have nothing to be ashamed of. There’s a wise saying attributed to Confucius that in a country that is well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of, in a country that is badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of. Who should be ashamed then and where? Who should be proud and of what? If we look at the world as a whole, a lot of the rich should be ashamed of themselves as the world is very badly “governed”.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
11. Salvation in Technological Progress?
Abstract
Nothing will save us if we don’t save ourselves. Yet there is something that can help us a lot in that endeavor: scientific and technological progress. This is already the Ninth Great Issue for the Future. And although one of the most popular old sayings tells us that necessity is the mother of invention, we shouldn’t be fooled by the misconceived notion of technological determinism, no matter how many inventions and innovations there are. We can expect a lot from the scientific and technological progress, but not too much. Also in this case, moderation makes the best advisor.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
12. Knowledge Trumps All, or the Role of Wisdom, Know-how and Skills
Abstract
There is a saying that to push forward you should use a trick rather than force. So what is this trick when it comes to reaching out for the future? It’s wisdom, knowledge and skills. And so we have made it to the issue of knowledge-based economy and society, the tenth Great Issue for the Future. It’s a unique conglomerate, which may help overcome many other difficulties, especially since in the future knowledge will not only be viewed as an instrument to acquire money but also as its equivalent. More and more people will increasingly prefer ever greater knowledge over ever greater money. This is a natural long-term consequence of societies continuing to get richer. And as nations get richer, their values change. The importance of material goods is in relative decline, while the prestige of non-material values, also those that money can’t buy, is rising.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
13. Before Peace Breaks Out
Abstract
Conflicts and security, war and peace. We could start painting a panorama of the future world from these issues but it’s better to save them for last, as all Great Issues for the Future involve those matters, which brings us to the 12th point.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko

Escaping Forward

Frontmatter
14. An Asian Era with the Euro-Atlantic Civilization as a Background?
Abstract
The times are peaceful and yet wars continue. Luckily, those waged between the titans of the world are bloodless. Still, unfortunately, the cold trade war is turning into a hot one, the discreet and quiet disputes are being replaced by an open and loud confrontation. This is mainly happening because the West is afraid of the growing competition from the East and, when it’s playing fair, more and more often it cannot keep up with it.1 Therefore the scale of hypocrisy — for the United States best illustrated by the “Do what we tell you, not what we do” slogan — is on the rise. Sheer self-righteousness. Talking constantly of free trade and liberal economy, of technology transfer and direct investment, while resorting to protectionist maneuvers, whether open ones or those hidden behind a political rhetoric.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
15. The New Pragmatism, or an Economics of Moderation
Abstract
How do we reconcile a practical approach to economy with an uncompromising attitude? Can you be both an economic pragmatist and a man of principles? Is it worthwhile? It is both possible and worthwhile. If we want the world of the future to be a world of peace and of a reasonably harmonious development — and we do want that very much — we need to introduce new values to economic reproduction processes but, at the same time, we shouldn’t, even for a moment, forget pragmatism, which is the fundamental, indispensable feature of rational economic activity. We need a pragmatism that favors multiculturalism and comes from a system of values that promotes inclusive globalization, social cohesion and sustainable development.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
16. In for a Happy Ending?
Abstract
One of the outstanding economists, when he learnt that I was writing a book entitled Whither the World: Political Economy of the Future, reacted: “Intriguing. Just tell me: does the book have a happy ending?” Then I replied that I don’t know but I don’t think so. I should know it by now. Well, it doesn’t because even though the book is about to end, the process it describes is and will remain permanently open-ended; it’s a never-ending story.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
An Even More Upbeat Afterword
Abstract
Let’s be glad then that there’s no happy ending as it’s better when such a fascinating story never ends. Some say that the prospect of no cataclysm happening is in itself very optimistic. At the time of turmoil we are undergoing, a skeptic would say that the fact that this whole changing world has not come tumbling down on our heads is already a great reason to be happy. It could have and it didn’t! Let’s be pleased but let’s worry a bit from time to time knowing that, as the saying goes, all is not yet lost that is delayed… This has to be prevented and, all the more so, we can’t put off solving the most essential problems facing humanity.
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future
verfasst von
Grzegorz W. Kolodko
Copyright-Jahr
2014
Verlag
Palgrave Macmillan UK
Electronic ISBN
978-1-137-47025-6
Print ISBN
978-1-349-49971-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137470256

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