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Über dieses Buch

This is the fourth version of a model that five years ago we set out to build and estimate along the lines of the continuous time approach clarified In chapter 1. Previous versions appeared in journal articles and conference proceedings, where the space is notoriously limited. Therefore we welcome the possibility of publishing a book-length treatment of this fourth version, so that we can describe its theoretical and empirical aspects in some detail. Although we have worked closely together and accept joint responsibility for the whole book, chs. 1 and 2 and appendix I have been written by G. Gandolfo, whilst chs. ] and 4 and appendix II have been written by P.c. Padoan. Different parts of this version of the model have been discussed In various lectures at the European University Institute (Florence) in 1984, In a seminar organized by the Bank of Italy (Sadiba, Perugia, Italy, February 16-18, 1984), in the second Viennese Workshop on Economic Applications of Control Theory (Vienna, May 16-18, 1984), and in the sixth annual Conference of the Society for Economic Dynamics and Control (Nice, France, June 13-15, 1984). In all of these we received helpful comments; similarly helpful were the comments of Clifford R .. Wymer, who, however, is absolved of any responsibility.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Methodological Problems

Abstract
Everyone knows that in econometric model building for a long time now there has been a tendency towards gigantism, in which one of the recommedantions for a model was its size (measured by the number of equations). This tendency still continues, but the careful observer will now have realized that another idea has been gaining ground, namely that macrodynamic medium-term econometric models, small in size (from one to a few dozen equations) and embodying considerably more economic theory than is usually possible, are complementary, or even preferable, to large models for the purposes of policy analysis and simulations: see, for example, Bergstrom and Wymer, 1976; Wymer, 1976, 1979; Reserve Bank of Australia, 1977; Comraittee on Policy Optimisation, 1978; Deleau et al., 1980, 1982; Masson, Rose and Selody, 1980; Richard, 1980; Gandolfo, 1981; Bergstrom, 1982; Kirkpatrick, 1983; Gandolfo and Padoan, 1982, 1983; and the references therein.
Giancarlo Gandolfo, Pietro Carlo Padoan

Chapter 2. The Model

Abstract
The model considers stock-flow behaviour in an open economy in which both price and quantity adjustments take place. Stocks are introduced with reference to the real sector (where adjustments of fixed capital and inventories to their respective desired levels are present) and to the financial sector which includes the stock of money, the stock of commercial credit, the stock of net foreign assets and the stock of international reserves. Real and financial feedbacks are, therefore, largely considered in the model. Government expenditure and revenues (taxation) are also present so that the effects of endogenous public deficits are included.
Giancarlo Gandolfo, Pietro Carlo Padoan

Chapter 3. Empirical Results

Abstract
The model was linearized in the logarithms about sample means in its non-linear parts — eqs. (1), (16), (17) and (21) —. The continuous log-linear model was then reduced to a stochastically equivalent discrete analogue according to the procedure explained in Gandolfo (1981, ch. 3, §3.3.2) which was estimated by using the FIML program “RESIMUL” developed by Clifford Wymer (sample period: 1960-I to 1981-IV).
Giancarlo Gandolfo, Pietro Carlo Padoan

Chapter 4. Policy Simulations

Abstract
The simulations that we present in the following pages are divided into four groups. The first and most numerous group includes seven antiinflationary policies. With the exception of the first one (the standard monetarist rule) they reflect alternative “ad hoc” antinflationary rules which have been proposed within the Italian economic policy debate and which, in different ways, aim to modify the full wage escalator clauses which were introduced into the Italian economy at the end of 1975.
Giancarlo Gandolfo, Pietro Carlo Padoan

Backmatter

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