Introduction
Literature review
Road traffic safety and accidents
HFACS
FMEA combined with MCDM
Research gap
The proposed hybrid model
HFACS
FMEA
Level | Severity | Occurrence | Detectability | Expected cost |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | No | Almost never | Almost certain | Almost no cost |
2 | Very slight | Remote | Very high | Very low |
3 | Slight | Very slight | High | Low |
4 | Minor | Slight | Moderately high | Slight |
5 | Moderate | Low | Medium | Moderate |
6 | Significant | Medium | Low | Moderately high |
7 | Major | Moderately high | Slight | High |
8 | Extreme | High | Slight | Very high |
9 | Serious | Very high | Remote | Extremely high |
10 | Hazardous | Almost certain | Almost impossible | Almost the same cost |
Z-BWM
Importance | Confidence | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
VL | L | M | H | VH | |
EI | (1, 1, 1) | (1, 1, 1) | (1, 1, 1) | (1, 1, 1) | (1, 1, 1) |
WI | (0.63, 0.95, 1.26) | (1.10, 1.64, 2.19) | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (1.90, 2.85, 3.79) |
FI | (1.26, 1.58, 1.90) | (2.19, 2.74, 3.29) | (2.83, 3.53, 4.24) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) |
VI | (1.90, 2.21, 2.53) | (3.29, 3.84, 4.38) | (4.24, 4.95, 5.66) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (5.69, 6.64, 7.59) |
AI | (2.53, 2.85, 2.85) | (4.38, 4.93, 4.93) | (5.66, 6.36, 6.36) | (6.69, 7.53, 7.53) | (7.59, 8.54, 8.54) |
Z- WASPAS
S, O, D, and E | Confidence | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Level | VL | L | M | H | VH | ||||
1 | (0.32, 0.32, 0.47) | (0.55, 0.55, 0.82) | (0.71, 0.71, 1.06) | (0.84, 0.84, 1.25) | (0.95, 0.95, 1.42) | ||||
2 | (0.47, 0.63, 0.79) | (0.82, 1.10, 1.37) | (1.06, 1.41, 1.77) | (1.25, 1.67, 2.09) | (1.42, 1.90, 2.37) | ||||
3 | (0.79, 0.95, 1.11) | (1.37, 1.64, 1.92) | (1.77, 2.12, 2.47) | (2.09, 2.51, 2.93) | (2.37, 2.85, 3.32) | ||||
4 | (1.11, 1.26, 1.42) | (1.92, 2.19, 2.47) | (2.47, 2.83, 3.18) | (2.93, 3.35, 3.76) | (3.32, 3.79, 4.27) | ||||
5 | (1.42, 1.58, 1.74) | (2.47, 2.74, 3.01) | (3.18, 3.53, 3.89) | (3.76, 4.18, 4.60) | (4.27, 4.74, 5.22) | ||||
6 | (1.74, 1.90, 2.06) | (3.01, 3.29, 3.56) | (3.89, 4.24, 4.60) | (4.60, 5.02, 5.44) | (5.22, 5.69, 6.17) | ||||
7 | (2.06, 2.21, 2.37) | (3.56, 3.84, 4.11) | (4.60, 4.95, 5.30) | (5.44, 5.86, 6.27) | (6.17, 6.64, 7.12) | ||||
8 | (2.37, 2.53, 2.69) | (4.11, 4.38, 4.66) | (5.30, 5.66, 6.01) | (6.27, 6.69, 7.11) | (7.12, 7.59, 8.06) | ||||
9 | (2.69, 2.85, 3.00) | (4.66, 4.93, 5.21) | (6.01, 6.36, 6.72) | (7.11, 7.53, 7.95) | (8.06, 8.54, 9.01) | ||||
10 | (3.00, 3.16, 3.16) | (5.21, 5.48, 5.48) | (6.72, 7.07, 7.07) | (7.95, 8.37, 8.37) | (9.01, 9.49, 9.49) |
Illustration in a real case study
Identifying the failure modes through HFACS
Level | Code | Failure mode | Description |
---|---|---|---|
External factors | FM1 | Regulatory omissions | 1. Laws and regulations are not rigorous or precise enough 2. Regulations are out-of-date and need amendment to meet industry and social circumstance demands |
FM2 | Administrative omissions | 1. The government department has not implemented the relevant laws and regulations or carried out its supervisory and management responsibilities 2. Failure to strengthen policy advocacy or insufficient safety subsidy policies | |
Organizational influence | FM3 | Human resources | 1. Drivers demonstrate unsuitable personality traits, such as hostility, emotional, nervous, aggressive etc 2. The shortage of drivers in the work force affects the quality and safety of transportation services |
FM4 | Financial resources | 1. Insufficient budgeting for regular vehicle renewal and equipment maintenance 2. Inappropriate salary and bonus system | |
FM5 | Equipment and resources | 1. Lack of regular vehicle inspection and maintenance 2. Using inappropriate vehicle or maintenance equipment | |
FM6 | Safety atmosphere | 1. Safety-related issues are not frequently or actively discussed 2. Lack of mutual encouragement to drive safely | |
FM7 | Organizational operation | 1. No regular review of safety plans and procedure 2. No rigorous working hour rules or violation record system | |
Unsafe supervision | FM8 | Insufficient supervision | 1. Failure to conduct regular safety inspections of drivers and vehicles 2. Failure to conduct on-the-job training for drivers and strengthen driving safety education and training |
FM9 | Insufficient supervision | 1. Inappropriate management resulting in non-compliance or improper working hours 2. Lack of standardization of working procedures and risk assessment mechanisms | |
FM10 | Failure to correct known errors | 1. Failure of the company's administrative division to issue warnings and initiate improvement measures for known defects in the system 2. Failure to correct improper driving habits | |
FM11 | Regulatory violations | Managers ignore safety regulations and fail to follow procedures in the execution of daily operating tasks | |
Pre-conditions for unsafe behavior | FM12 | Personal readiness | 1. Drivers have insufficient rest between shifts 2. Drivers are not familiar with road conditions 3. Driver's personal health is poor |
FM13 | Human resource management CRM | 1. Poor communication between management staff and drivers 2. Interpersonal relationships in the work team are not harmonious | |
FM14 | Poor mental state | 1. Attitude or personality problems, such as carelessness or impatience 2. Fatigue causing inattention | |
FM15 | Poor physical state | Loss of driving control due to illness, medications, physical discomfort or dizziness | |
FM16 | Physical/psychological limitations (intelligence) | 1. Work load exceeds the level that the driver can bear physically/mentally 2. Deterioration of vision or physical response | |
Unsafe behavior | FM17 | Driver decision-making error | 1. Misjudging the driving status of other vehicles and responding to emergencies 2. Misjudgment of road conditions |
FM18 | Driver operating error | 1. Improper driving behavior, such as incorrect lane changing, deviating from lanes, failure to maintain safe driving distance, etc 2. Failure to check vehicle condition before departure | |
FM19 | Driver perception error | 1. Monotonous road conditions lead to perception errors 2. Poor vision at night | |
FM20 | Driver violations | 1. Violation of road traffic regulations or drunk driving 2. Distracted driving, for example, using a mobile phone or tablet device while driving |
Weighted RPN elements through Z-BWM
Expert no | Best | S | O | D | E |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (7.59, 8.54, 8.54) | (4.24, 4.95, 5.66) |
2 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) | (2.83, 3.53, 4.24) |
3 | D | (6.69, 7.53, 7.53) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) | (1, 1, 1) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) |
4 | D | (1.90, 2.21, 2.53) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (1, 1, 1) | (2.83, 3.53, 4.24) |
5 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (5.69, 6.64, 7.59) |
6 | E | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (1.90, 2.85, 3.79) | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (1, 1, 1) |
7 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (5.69, 6.64, 7.59) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) |
8 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) |
9 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) |
10 | S | (1, 1, 1) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) |
Expert no | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Worst | D | O | S | O | E |
S | (7.59, 8.54, 8.54) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (1, 1, 1) | (2.83, 3.53, 4.24) | (5.69, 6.64, 7.59) |
O | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (1, 1, 1) | (2.83, 3.53, 4.24) | (1, 1, 1) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) |
D | (1, 1, 1) | (1.90, 2.85, 3.79) | (6.69, 7.53, 7.53) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) |
E | (4.24, 4.95, 5.66) | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (5.02, 5.86, 6.69) | (1, 1, 1) |
Expert no | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
Worst | S | E | E | D | E |
S | (1, 1, 1) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (3.79, 4.74, 5.69) |
O | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (4.24, 4.95, 5.66) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) |
D | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (1.10, 1.64, 2.19) | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (1, 1, 1) | (1.67, 2.51, 3.35) |
E | (3.35, 4.18, 5.02) | (1, 1, 1) | (1, 1, 1) | (1.41, 2.12, 2.83) | (1, 1, 1) |
Risk factor | Weight | Rank |
---|---|---|
S | (0.381, 0.419, 0.451) | 1 |
O | (0.136, 0.166, 0.204) | 4 |
D | (0.199, 0.235, 0.271) | 2 |
E | (0.157, 0.180, 0.202) | 3 |
Ranking failure modes through Z-WASPAS
Failure mode | S | O | D | E |
---|---|---|---|---|
FM1 | (3.538, 3.948, 4.388) | (2.851, 3.210, 3.599) | (5.073, 5.512, 5.952) | (4.027, 4.466, 4.906) |
FM2 | (5.109, 5.550, 5.991) | (4.683, 5.121, 5.559) | (3.686, 4.127, 4.567) | (3.799, 4.226, 4.667) |
FM3 | (6.233, 6.677, 7.121) | (4.423, 4.867, 5.311) | (2.347, 2.713, 3.109) | (4.469, 4.913, 5.357) |
FM4 | (4.793, 5.228, 5.663) | (3.069, 3.427, 3.814) | (2.763, 3.165, 3.597) | (4.824, 5.258, 5.693) |
FM5 | (5.636, 6.074, 6.512) | (2.496, 2.841, 3.232) | (1.592, 1.881, 2.185) | (3.753, 4.176, 4.614) |
FM6 | (5.016, 5.454, 5.892) | (4.088, 4.496, 4.934) | (3.413, 3.792 4.186) | (3.440, 3.864, 4.302) |
FM7 | (4.543, 4.978, 5.413) | (2.983, 3.388, 3.823) | (2.323, 2.696, 3.084) | (2.974, 3.393, 3.829) |
FM8 | (5.131, 5.572, 6.013) | (3.706, 4.131, 4.572) | (2.207, 2.602, 3.043) | (2.405, 2.817, 3.260) |
FM9 | (4.768, 5.200, 5.633) | (3.530, 3.932, 4.364) | (2.343, 2.745, 3.177) | (2.867, 3.252, 3.637) |
FM10 | (4.730, 5.157, 5.584) | (3.614, 3.979, 4.358) | (1.853, 2.172, 2.506) | (2.851, 3.216, 3.595) |
FM11 | (4.559, 4.980, 5.415) | (3.213, 3.618, 4.053) | (2.379, 2.752, 3.140) | (2.060, 2.389, 2.732) |
FM12 | (6.261, 6.694, 7.126) | (4.860, 5.292, 5.725) | (4.375, 4.807, 5.240) | (3.729, 4.147, 4.580) |
FM13 | (4.377, 4.812, 5.247) | (3.416, 3.836, 4.271) | (3.510, 3.916, 4.352) | (2.592, 2.965, 3.353) |
FM14 | (5.440, 5.869, 6.299) | (4.438, 4.867, 5.297) | (3.436, 3.835, 4.265) | (2.974, 3.328, 3.713) |
FM15 | (5.100, 5.530, 5.959) | (3.264, 3.664, 4.093) | (2.559, 2.988, 3.418) | (2.672, 3.072, 3.502) |
FM16 | (4.963, 5.395, 5.827) | (3.217, 3.649, 4.082) | (2.9949 3.397, 3.829) | (2.337, 2.755, 3.187) |
FM17 | (6.057, 6.493, 6.928) | (3.231, 3.667, 4.102) | (3.840, 4.276, 4.711) | (3.198, 3.589, 3.979) |
FM18 | (6.133, 6.576, 7.020) | (4.436, 4.879, 5.323) | (2.615, 2.998, 3.397) | (3.105, 3.533, 3.977) |
FM19 | (5.677, 6.121, 6.565) | (4.388, 4.832, 5.275) | (2.949, 3.334, 3.733) | (2.876, 3.289, 3.733) |
FM20 | (5.874, 6.312, 6.750) | (4.245, 4.683, 5.121) | (1.707, 2.087, 2.525) | (2.648, 3.086, 3.524) |
Failure mode | \(\otimes SQ_{i}\) | \(\otimes PQ_{i}\) | \(\varphi_{i}\) | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
FM1 | (0.338, 0.429, 0.531) | (0.430, 0.422, 0.422) | 0.4269 | 11 |
FM2 | (0.391, 0.491, 0.601) | (0.492, 0.486, 0.488) | 0.4900 | 4 |
FM3 | (0.414, 0.513, 0.621) | (0.493, 0.485, 0.485) | 0.5005 | 2 |
FM4 | (0.355, 0.445, 0.545) | (0.444, 0.434, 0.430) | 0.4408 | 9 |
FM5 | (0.339, 0.421, 0.512) | (0.396, 0.380, 0.371) | 0.4018 | 16 |
FM6 | (0.369, 0.462, 0.566) | (0.465, 0.456, 0.455) | 0.4604 | 8 |
FM7 | (0.307, 0.389, 0.483) | (0.388, 0.377, 0.374) | 0.3848 | 18 |
FM8 | (0.328, 0.414, 0.512) | (0.401, 0.392, 0.392) | 0.4047 | 15 |
FM9 | (0.321, 0.406, 0.502) | (0.403, 0.393, 0.390) | 0.4009 | 17 |
FM10 | (0.311, 0.391, 0.481) | (0.384, 0.370, 0.363) | 0.3820 | 19 |
FM11 | (0.297, 0.376, 0.467) | (0.372, 0.360, 0.355) | 0.3697 | 20 |
FM12 | (0.450, 0.556, 0.672) | (0.551, 0.546, 0.549) | 0.5527 | 1 |
FM13 | (0.324, 0.411, 0.509) | (0.414, 0.405, 0.403) | 0.4092 | 14 |
FM14 | (0.383, 0.477, 0.582) | (0.474, 0.465, 0.464) | 0.4724 | 6 |
FM15 | (0.332, 0.418, 0.515) | (0.412, 0.402, 0.399) | 0.4115 | 12 |
FM16 | (0.329, 0.416, 0.514) | (0.411, 0.402, 0.400) | 0.4104 | 13 |
FM17 | (0.401, 0.498, 0.604) | (0.490, 0.481, 0.479) | 0.4908 | 3 |
FM18 | (0.395, 0.491, 0.597) | (0.473, 0.465, 0.465) | 0.4795 | 5 |
FM19 | (0.380, 0.474, 0.580) | (0.465, 0.456, 0.456) | 0.4668 | 7 |
FM20 | (0.357, 0.447, 0.548) | (0.415, 0.407, 0.408) | 0.4286 | 10 |
Discussion
Management implications
Model comparison
Z-WASPAS | Original FMEA | Z-ARAS | Z-TOPSIS | Z-VIKOR | Z-GRA | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\varphi_{i}\) | Rank | RPNi | rank | Ki | Rank | cci | Rank | Qi | Rank | ri | Rank | |
FM1 | 0.427 | 11 | 312.864 | 9 | 0.048 | 11 | 0.245 | 19 | 0.653 | 20 | 0.825 | 12 |
FM2 | 0.490 | 4 | 495.901 | 2 | 0.055 | 4 | 0.411 | 7 | 0.530 | 7 | 0.881 | 5 |
FM3 | 0.501 | 2 | 433.910 | 3 | 0.057 | 2 | 0.510 | 2 | 0.498 | 3 | 0.926 | 2 |
FM4 | 0.441 | 9 | 299.008 | 10 | 0.050 | 10 | 0.328 | 11 | 0.573 | 12 | 0.840 | 10 |
FM5 | 0.402 | 16 | 136.155 | 19 | 0.047 | 12 | 0.359 | 10 | 0.575 | 13 | 0.834 | 11 |
FM6 | 0.460 | 8 | 360.114 | 6 | 0.052 | 8 | 0.366 | 9 | 0.552 | 8 | 0.852 | 9 |
FM7 | 0.385 | 18 | 154.788 | 17 | 0.044 | 19 | 0.247 | 18 | 0.618 | 18 | 0.789 | 19 |
FM8 | 0.405 | 15 | 169.639 | 16 | 0.046 | 15 | 0.315 | 13 | 0.571 | 10 | 0.817 | 14 |
FM9 | 0.401 | 17 | 183.092 | 15 | 0.046 | 17 | 0.279 | 15 | 0.597 | 15 | 0.805 | 16 |
FM10 | 0.382 | 19 | 143.673 | 18 | 0.044 | 18 | 0.260 | 17 | 0.607 | 16 | 0.795 | 18 |
FM11 | 0.370 | 20 | 118.878 | 20 | 0.042 | 20 | 0.237 | 20 | 0.625 | 19 | 0.780 | 20 |
FM12 | 0.553 | 1 | 706.614 | 1 | 0.062 | 1 | 0.587 | 1 | 0.430 | 1 | 0.961 | 1 |
FM13 | 0.409 | 14 | 214.885 | 11 | 0.046 | 16 | 0.263 | 16 | 0.616 | 17 | 0.804 | 17 |
FM14 | 0.472 | 6 | 365.714 | 4 | 0.053 | 6 | 0.417 | 6 | 0.520 | 6 | 0.872 | 7 |
FM15 | 0.412 | 12 | 186.542 | 13 | 0.047 | 13 | 0.318 | 12 | 0.572 | 11 | 0.818 | 13 |
FM16 | 0.410 | 13 | 184.661 | 14 | 0.047 | 14 | 0.309 | 14 | 0.580 | 14 | 0.814 | 15 |
FM17 | 0.491 | 3 | 365.275 | 5 | 0.056 | 3 | 0.495 | 3 | 0.474 | 2 | 0.901 | 4 |
FM18 | 0.480 | 5 | 340.479 | 7 | 0.055 | 5 | 0.479 | 4 | 0.502 | 4 | 0.901 | 3 |
FM19 | 0.467 | 7 | 325.000 | 8 | 0.053 | 7 | 0.429 | 5 | 0.508 | 5 | 0.875 | 6 |
FM20 | 0.429 | 10 | 191.174 | 12 | 0.050 | 9 | 0.403 | 8 | 0.554 | 9 | 0.861 | 8 |
Z-WASPAS | Original FMEA | Z-ARAS | Z-TOPSIS | Z-VIKOR | Z-GRA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z-WASPAS | 1 | 0.956 | 0.980 | 0.895 | 0.875 | 0.956 |
Z-RPN | 0.956 | 1 | 0.911 | 0.777 | 0.765 | 0.862 |
Z-ARAS | 0.980 | 0.911 | 1 | 0.928 | 0.893 | 0.988 |
Z-TOPSIS | 0.895 | 0.777 | 0.928 | 1 | 0.979 | 0.950 |
Z-VIKOR | 0.875 | 0.765 | 0.893 | 0.979 | 1 | 0.914 |
Z-GRA | 0.956 | 0.862 | 0.988 | 0.950 | 0.914 | 1 |
Sensitivity analysis
S | O | D | E | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Run 1 | (0.084, 0.093, 0.1) | (0.211, 0.258, 0.317) | (0.310, 0.365, 0.422) | (0.245, 0.281, 0.314) |
Run 2 | (0.169, 0.186, 0.2) | (0.190, 0.232, 0.285) | (0.279, 0.328, 0.379) | (0.220, 0.252, 0.282) |
Run 3 | (0.253, 0.279, 0.3) | (0.168, 0.206, 0.252) | (0.247, 0.291, 0.336) | (0.195, 0.223, 0.250) |
Run 4 | (0.338, 0.372, 0.4) | (0.147, 0.179, 0.220) | (0.216, 0.254, 0.293) | (0.170, 0.195, 0.218) |
Run 5 | (0.422, 0.465, 0.5) | (0.125, 0.153, 0.188) | (0.184, 0.216, 0.250) | (0.145, 0.166, 0.186) |
Run 6 | (0.507, 0.558, 0.6) | (0.104, 0.127, 0.155) | (0.152, 0.179, 0.207) | (0.120, 0.138, 0.154) |
Run 7 | (0.591, 0.651, 0.7) | (0.082, 0.100, 0.123) | (0.121, 0.142, 0.164) | (0.095, 0.109, 0.122) |
Run 8 | (0.675, 0.744, 0.8) | (0.061, 0.074, 0.091) | (0.089, 0.105, 0.121) | (0.070, 0.080, 0.090) |
Run 9 | (0.760, 0.837, 0.9) | (0.039, 0.048, 0.059) | (0.057, 0.068, 0.078) | (0.045, 0.052, 0.058) |