Skip to main content

2022 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Adaptive Weather Forecasting Based on Local Characteristics of the Territory

verfasst von : R. V. Sharapov

Erschienen in: Advances in Automation III

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

At present, global models describing the dynamics of the atmosphere, such as GFS, NAM, ECMWF, UkMet and others, are actively used to compile weather forecasts. Modern global models make it possible to build weather forecasts of a sufficiently high accuracy. Nevertheless, for local territories, errors often arise related to the peculiarities of a particular area. It is rather difficult to provide the proper level of detail for global models - it is necessary to set an extended description of the territory for the entire model, which is quite difficult (especially for poorly explored areas). At the same time, the volumes of the initial data increase and the complexity of the calculation algorithms increases. For this reason, the use of adaptive models that allow adjusting forecasts from global models for specific territories seems quite attractive.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Bjerknes, V.: The problem of weather prediction, considered from the viewpoints of mechanics and physics. Meteorol. Z. 21, 1–7 (1904) Bjerknes, V.: The problem of weather prediction, considered from the viewpoints of mechanics and physics. Meteorol. Z. 21, 1–7 (1904)
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Richardson, L.: Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, p. 236. The University Press, Cambridge (1922)MATH Richardson, L.: Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, p. 236. The University Press, Cambridge (1922)MATH
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Skamarock, W.C.: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, p. 113 (2008) Skamarock, W.C.: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, p. 113 (2008)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Hamill, T.M., Whitaker, J.S.: Increasing NOAA’s computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling. A NOAA White Paper (2010) Hamill, T.M., Whitaker, J.S.: Increasing NOAA’s computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling. A NOAA White Paper (2010)
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Deshpande, M., Johny, C.J., Kanase, R.: Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at 12km Resolution. Contribution from IITM Technical Report No.TR-06 ESSO/IITM/MM/TR/ 02(2020)/200 Deshpande, M., Johny, C.J., Kanase, R.: Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at 12km Resolution. Contribution from IITM Technical Report No.TR-06 ESSO/IITM/MM/TR/ 02(2020)/200
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Liu, Q., Marchok, T., Pan, H.L., Bender, M., Lord, S.: Improvements in hurricane initialization and forecasting at NCEP with global and regional (GFDL) models. TPB 472, National Weather Service, US Department of Commerce, p. 7 (2000) Liu, Q., Marchok, T., Pan, H.L., Bender, M., Lord, S.: Improvements in hurricane initialization and forecasting at NCEP with global and regional (GFDL) models. TPB 472, National Weather Service, US Department of Commerce, p. 7 (2000)
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Andersson, E., Hollingsworth, A.: Typhoon bogus observations in the ECMWF data assimilation system. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 148, ECMWF, Reading, UK (1988) Andersson, E., Hollingsworth, A.: Typhoon bogus observations in the ECMWF data assimilation system. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 148, ECMWF, Reading, UK (1988)
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Arakawa, A., Mintz, Y.: The UCLA atmospheric circulation model. Department of Meteorology, California (1974) Arakawa, A., Mintz, Y.: The UCLA atmospheric circulation model. Department of Meteorology, California (1974)
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Tracton, M.S., Mo, K., Chen, W., Kalnay, E., Kistler, R., White, G.: Dynamical extended range forecasting (DERF) at the national meteorological center. Mon. Wea. Rev. 117, 1604–1635 (1989)CrossRef Tracton, M.S., Mo, K., Chen, W., Kalnay, E., Kistler, R., White, G.: Dynamical extended range forecasting (DERF) at the national meteorological center. Mon. Wea. Rev. 117, 1604–1635 (1989)CrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Yu, T.-W., Iredell, M., Keyser, D.: Global data assimilation and forecast experiments using SSM/I wind speed data derived from a neural network application. Wea. and Fcst. 12, 859–865 (1997) Yu, T.-W., Iredell, M., Keyser, D.: Global data assimilation and forecast experiments using SSM/I wind speed data derived from a neural network application. Wea. and Fcst. 12, 859–865 (1997)
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Pegion, P., Whitaker, J., Hamill, T., Bates, G., Gehne, M., Kolcynski, W.: Stochastic parameterization development in the NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System. In: ECMWF, Reading, UK (2016) Pegion, P., Whitaker, J., Hamill, T., Bates, G., Gehne, M., Kolcynski, W.: Stochastic parameterization development in the NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System. In: ECMWF, Reading, UK (2016)
13.
Zurück zum Zitat LeMarshall, J., et al.: Improving global analysis and forecasting with AIRS. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 87, 891–894 (2006)CrossRef LeMarshall, J., et al.: Improving global analysis and forecasting with AIRS. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 87, 891–894 (2006)CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Kiehl, J.T., Hack, J.J., Bonan, G.B., Boville, B.A., Williamson, D.L., Rasch, P.J.: The national center for atmospheric research community climate model CCM3. J. Climate 11, 1131–1149 (1998)CrossRef Kiehl, J.T., Hack, J.J., Bonan, G.B., Boville, B.A., Williamson, D.L., Rasch, P.J.: The national center for atmospheric research community climate model CCM3. J. Climate 11, 1131–1149 (1998)CrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Ji, M., Kumar, A., Leetma, A.: A multiseason climate forecast system at the national meteorological center. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 569–577 (1994)CrossRef Ji, M., Kumar, A., Leetma, A.: A multiseason climate forecast system at the national meteorological center. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 569–577 (1994)CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Admassu, A., Teshome, A., Wondifraw, D., Scher, S., van der Burgt, F., de Wit, A.: Validation of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) short-range forecasts over Ethiopia. National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia and CommonSense project (2017) Admassu, A., Teshome, A., Wondifraw, D., Scher, S., van der Burgt, F., de Wit, A.: Validation of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) short-range forecasts over Ethiopia. National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia and CommonSense project (2017)
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Rogers, D., Tsirkunov, V.V.: Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. World Bank (2013) Rogers, D., Tsirkunov, V.V.: Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. World Bank (2013)
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Yoshida, H., Terai, T.: Modeling of weather data by time series analysis for air conditioning load calculations. ASHRAE Trans. 98, 328–345 (1992) Yoshida, H., Terai, T.: Modeling of weather data by time series analysis for air conditioning load calculations. ASHRAE Trans. 98, 328–345 (1992)
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Kawashima, M., Dorgan, C.E., Mitchell, J.W.: Hourly thermal load prediction for the next 24 hours by ARIMA, EWMA, LR, and an Artificial neural network. ASHRAE Trans. 101, 186–200 (1995) Kawashima, M., Dorgan, C.E., Mitchell, J.W.: Hourly thermal load prediction for the next 24 hours by ARIMA, EWMA, LR, and an Artificial neural network. ASHRAE Trans. 101, 186–200 (1995)
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Bartok, J., Habala, O., Bednar, P., Gazak, M., Hluchy, L.: Data mining and integration for predicting significant meteorological phenomena. Procedia Computer Science 1, 37–46 (2010)CrossRef Bartok, J., Habala, O., Bednar, P., Gazak, M., Hluchy, L.: Data mining and integration for predicting significant meteorological phenomena. Procedia Computer Science 1, 37–46 (2010)CrossRef
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Henze, G.P., Kalz, D.E., Felsmann, C., Knabe, G.: Impact of forecasting accuracy on predictive optimal control of active and passive building thermal storage inventory. HVAC & R Res. 10, 153–178 (2004)CrossRef Henze, G.P., Kalz, D.E., Felsmann, C., Knabe, G.: Impact of forecasting accuracy on predictive optimal control of active and passive building thermal storage inventory. HVAC & R Res. 10, 153–178 (2004)CrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Chen, T.Y., Athienitis, A.K.: Ambient temperature and solar radiation prediction for predictive control of HVAC systems and a methodology for optimal building heating dynamic operation. ASHRAE Trans. 102, 26–36 (1996) Chen, T.Y., Athienitis, A.K.: Ambient temperature and solar radiation prediction for predictive control of HVAC systems and a methodology for optimal building heating dynamic operation. ASHRAE Trans. 102, 26–36 (1996)
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Allen, G., LeMarchall, J.: An evaluation of neural networks and discriminant analysis methods for application in operational rain forecasting. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 43, 17–28 (1994) Allen, G., LeMarchall, J.: An evaluation of neural networks and discriminant analysis methods for application in operational rain forecasting. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 43, 17–28 (1994)
24.
Zurück zum Zitat McGullagh, J., Choi, B., Bluff, K.: Genetic evolution of a neural networks input vector for meteorological estimations. In: ICONIP 1997, New Zealand, pp. 1046–1049 (1997) McGullagh, J., Choi, B., Bluff, K.: Genetic evolution of a neural networks input vector for meteorological estimations. In: ICONIP 1997, New Zealand, pp. 1046–1049 (1997)
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Solomatine, D., Dulal, K.N.: Model trees as an alternative to neural networks in rainfall-runoff modelling. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 399–411 (2003)CrossRef Solomatine, D., Dulal, K.N.: Model trees as an alternative to neural networks in rainfall-runoff modelling. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 399–411 (2003)CrossRef
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Jareanpon, C., Pensuwon, W., Frank, R.J.: An adaptive RBF network optimised using a genetic algorithm applied to rainfall forecasting. In: International Symposium on Communications and Information Technologies 2004 (ISCK 2004), pp. 1005–1010 (2004) Jareanpon, C., Pensuwon, W., Frank, R.J.: An adaptive RBF network optimised using a genetic algorithm applied to rainfall forecasting. In: International Symposium on Communications and Information Technologies 2004 (ISCK 2004), pp. 1005–1010 (2004)
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Kemmoku, Y., Orita, S., Nakagawa, S., Sakakibara, T.: Daily insolation forecasting using a multi-stage neural network. Sol. Energy 66, 193–199 (1999)CrossRef Kemmoku, Y., Orita, S., Nakagawa, S., Sakakibara, T.: Daily insolation forecasting using a multi-stage neural network. Sol. Energy 66, 193–199 (1999)CrossRef
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Pan, X., Wu, J.: Bayesian neural network ensemble model based on partial least squares regression and its application in rainfall forecasting. In: 2009 International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, Chine, pp. 49–52 (2009) Pan, X., Wu, J.: Bayesian neural network ensemble model based on partial least squares regression and its application in rainfall forecasting. In: 2009 International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, Chine, pp. 49–52 (2009)
Metadaten
Titel
Adaptive Weather Forecasting Based on Local Characteristics of the Territory
verfasst von
R. V. Sharapov
Copyright-Jahr
2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94202-1_26