2. An Analysis of the Causes of Non-Responses to Cyclone Warnings and the Use of Indigenous Knowledge for Cyclone Forecasting in Bangladesh

This paper explores the causes of non-response to cyclone warning and unwillingness to seek refuge and identifies natural methods for predicting cyclones and storm surge through local knowledge, which could be integrated into a modern cyclone forecasting system in coastal Bangladesh. Despite significant progress in cyclone forecasting in Bangladesh, still it lacks in clear communication of warning information to people at risk at the local level, and also in terms of accuracy in the prediction of landfall timing as well as intensity factor. The study reveals that coastal inhabitants are frequently familiar with cyclones and aware of the potential risks; however, they do not respond to cyclone warnings proactively because of poor road networks, long distances between home and cyclone shelters, low capacity of cyclone shelters, fear of burglary and stealing of household assets and goods, disbelief and misinterpretation of warning information, etc. There is also a higher degree of fatalism among the people. There are other reasons why people do not respond to official warnings, such as poor understanding of cyclone warnings, past experience of the failure of warnings, no or limited income-earning opportunities during and after the cyclone if people decide to evacuate, pressure from employers to go fishing, etc. This study also explores the fact that coastal inhabitants can predict the onset of cyclones based on local indigenous knowledge gained through everyday life on the coast. This method of indigenous cyclone prediction is based on a combination of different factors, such as unusual animal behaviour, water and weather conditions, etc. The present study advocates building awareness of proactive responses to official cyclone early warnings while integrating local knowledge systems in order to improve the proactive response rate and establish reliable forecasting that would help in disaster mitigation and lessen the emergency management activities.