Skip to main content

2013 | Buch

Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

herausgegeben von: Walter Leal Filho

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe : Climate Change Management

insite
SUCHEN

Über dieses Buch

​There has been some degree of reluctance in the past to consider disaster risk management within the mainstream of adaptation to climate variability and climate change. However, there is now wide recognition of the need to incorporate disaster risk management concerns in dealing with such phenomena. There is also a growing awareness of the necessity for a multi-sectoral approach in managing the effects of climate variability and climate change, since this can lead to a significant reduction of risk. This book presents the latest findings from scientific research on climate variation, climate change and their links with disaster risk management. It showcases projects and other initiatives in this field that are being undertaken in both industrialised and developing countries, by universities and scientific institutions, government bodies, national and international agencies, NGOs and other stakeholders. Finally, it discusses current and future challenges, identifying opportunities and highlighting the still unrealised potential for promoting better understanding of the connections between climate variation, climate change and disaster risk management worldwide.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

CATEGORY 1

Chapter 1. Addressing Interpretive Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management

Extreme floods are the most common type of natural disaster in Europe. It is projected that future floods may be exacerbated by the effects of climate change. The concept of managing rather than preventing floods is now being recognised as an effective approach and is engrained in both national and European policy. The use of effective flood warnings and communication is an essential cornerstone of flood risk management. Uncertainty is also a key aspect of effective flood risk management. The concept of “interpretive uncertainty”, defined as the differences in how people understand and interpret information, is emerging as a significant component in flood risk management and is the focus of this paper. The study involved extensive quantitative research of at-risk communities in four case study areas across Ireland, exposed to pluvial, fluvial and coastal risks as part of the ERA-Net CRUE UR-

flood

project. Approximately 2,200 postal questionnaires were administered across the four case study areas, with 436 returns; a response rate of 20 %. From an analysis of these results, the paper identifies barriers and obstacles to effective flood risk communication, focusing on before and during flood experiences such as risk perception, flood preparedness, information and warnings, communication methods and reacting to warnings. From these findings, recommendations are made on how these obstacles can be overcome.

Roisin A. Bradford, John J. O’Sullivan
Chapter 2. An Analysis of the Causes of Non-Responses to Cyclone Warnings and the Use of Indigenous Knowledge for Cyclone Forecasting in Bangladesh

This paper explores the causes of non-response to cyclone warning and unwillingness to seek refuge and identifies natural methods for predicting cyclones and storm surge through local knowledge, which could be integrated into a modern cyclone forecasting system in coastal Bangladesh. Despite significant progress in cyclone forecasting in Bangladesh, still it lacks in clear communication of warning information to people at risk at the local level, and also in terms of accuracy in the prediction of landfall timing as well as intensity factor. The study reveals that coastal inhabitants are frequently familiar with cyclones and aware of the potential risks; however, they do not respond to cyclone warnings proactively because of poor road networks, long distances between home and cyclone shelters, low capacity of cyclone shelters, fear of burglary and stealing of household assets and goods, disbelief and misinterpretation of warning information, etc. There is also a higher degree of fatalism among the people. There are other reasons why people do not respond to official warnings, such as poor understanding of cyclone warnings, past experience of the failure of warnings, no or limited income-earning opportunities during and after the cyclone if people decide to evacuate, pressure from employers to go fishing, etc. This study also explores the fact that coastal inhabitants can predict the onset of cyclones based on local indigenous knowledge gained through everyday life on the coast. This method of indigenous cyclone prediction is based on a combination of different factors, such as unusual animal behaviour, water and weather conditions, etc. The present study advocates building awareness of proactive responses to official cyclone early warnings while integrating local knowledge systems in order to improve the proactive response rate and establish reliable forecasting that would help in disaster mitigation and lessen the emergency management activities.

Shitangsu Kumar Paul, Jayant K. Routray
Chapter 3. Assessment of Climate and Human Induced Disaster Risk Over Shared Water Resources in the Balkhash Lake Drainage Basin

This paper aims to assess the implications of climate change and human activity on the disaster risk for water resources in the Balkhash Lake drainage basin, which are shared between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the People’s Republic of China. The long-term periodical fluctuations in the Balkhash Lake water levels demonstrate their intimate connection with components of its water regime, especially run-off from its main contributor, the Ili River, which flows from the Republic of China. A rapid increase in human activity in the Kazakh part of the drainage basin in the period 1970–1990 led to a significant drop in the Balkhash water level and devastating effects on wet ecosystems. The reduction of anthropogenic impact in the Balkhash Lake drainage basin after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 coincided with favourable climate conditions during the 1990s and 2000s. This led to a significant rise in the water level in the Balkhash Lake and to the rehabilitation of its degraded ecosystems. However, a new challenge for the sustainable use of Lake Balkhash water resources appeared during the last decade, posed by the development of large irrigated areas in the upper part of the Ili River in the Republic of China. China is planning to reduce considerably the outflow of the Ili into Kazakhstan. Moreover, contemporary climate change causes changes in precipitation and temperature in the drainage basin. The paper presents three different scenarios for the development of the Balkhash Lake in the twenty-first century. The scenarios were simulated with respect to changes in human activity and climate parameters in both parts (Kazakhstan and China) of the Balkhash Lake basin. Two of the scenarios lead to disaster-like changes in the Balkhash Lake.

Pavel Propastin
Chapter 4. Understanding the Links Between Climate Change and Disaster Management in Pacific Island Countries

Small island developing states (SIDS) are especially vulnerable to problems associated with climate change and, of course, with disasters, for two main reasons: (1) Their geographical location, in regions vulnerable to sea level rises; (2) Their limited capacity to adapt, as a result of constraints in respect of access to financial resources and technologies. This chapter discusses how Pacific Island Countries (PICs) address the challenges of climate change in the Pacific region. It shows some of the empirical evidence available and outlines some of the actions currently being taken on climate change and disaster risk management in the Pacific Island states. Finally, it summarises some of the lessons learned from the Pacific region and lists some of the challenges and measures that need to be implemented in order to achieve a better integration of climate change and disaster management in the Pacific Island Countries. This chapter is partly based on the experiences gained through the “Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network (DIREKT)”, which is a cooperation scheme involving universities from Germany, Fiji, Mauritius, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago. The aim of this project is to strengthen the science and technology capacity, in the field of renewable energy, of a sample of ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) small island developing states, by means of technology transfer, information exchange and networking. The project is funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region.

Pritika Bijay, Walter Leal Filho, Veronika Schulte
Chapter 5. Climate Change Induced Glacier Retreat and Risk Management: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Apolobamba Mountain Range, Bolivia

Due to global warming, tropical glaciers in the Bolivian Andes have lost about half of their volume and surface area since 1975. Throughout the Apolobamba mountain range, the retreat of glaciers has resulted in the formation of small and medium-sized lakes on the glacier terminus. Many of the glacial lakes are contained only by loose moraine debris: thus they can pose a significant threat to human settlements and infrastructure downstream. Considering the fact that the

Cordillera de Apolobamba

holds the largest continuous glaciated area in Bolivia, which measured 220 km² in the 1980s, there is a legitimate concern regarding the dangers that might affect this mountain region. Yet there is no documentation available on glacial lakes in the Apolobamba mountain range; indeed there is little awareness of the related risks. Only recently has glacial retreat, and climate change impacts in general, been given some importance in the planning and management of the Apolobamba National Protected Area for Integrated Management, thereby opening a discussion on natural hazard threats and the development of adaptation strategies with the objective of minimising risks for human populations and local infrastructure. This paper presents documentation of glacier retreat and the forming of glacial lakes in the

Cordillera

of Apolobamba over the last 35 years. In addition, the risk potential of glacial lake outburst floods and the risk awareness of the local population will be analysed in relation to park management options, and ideas outlined for more detailed studies of glacial lake outburst floods in Bolivia.

Dirk Hoffmann, Daniel Weggenmann
Chapter 6. Current and Future Impacts of Extreme Flood Events

Inadequate timber extraction management of forests, cattle farming, abusive recreational practices, and rapid urban expansion are all factors that create significant problems in the Cantabrian area watershed for the sustainable management of the hydrological ecosystem services. These problems, added to the consequences of climate change, are already causing tangible and intangible damage to human and natural systems. Particularly for this coastal area, it is necessary to analyse flooding on a local scale. Therefore, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation and its influence on discharge is researched in the Atlantic climate basin in the context of short, fast-flowing rivers. In this chapter, ENSEMBLES RT3 climate model outputs are analysed and calibrated with local observation data recorded daily. The hydrological/hydraulic coupling model (MikeShe-Mike11) is applied by forcing the validated model output. In order for results to remain spatially representative, basin and urban scales are studied. According to the results, under the medium greenhouse emission scenario (A1B), the Regional Climate Models HIRHAM (2001–2050) and RACMO (2051–2100) show an increase in extreme precipitation. The expected changes show spatial variability depending on local characteristics (topography, proximity to the coast, vegetation, etc.) and ranging between 6–26 % for HIRHAM and 11–12 % for RACMO. These changes in precipitation affect the river flow. An increase of 22 ± 2 % is expected in the HIRHAM climatic model for upstream peak discharge with a return period exceeding 50 years. The change in precipitation also causes an increase in flood damage. This is a result of the expected change in the river’s peak flow by 2,050 leading to an expansion of 3 % in the flood area as well as impacting the intensity of flooding. In this context, it has been necessary to define and assess the different adaptation options.

Maddalen Mendizabal, Roberto Moncho, Peter Torp
Chapter 7. Development Challenges of Multi-Functional Coastal System in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

As coastal populations in Africa continue to grow and pressures on the environment from land-based and marine human activities increase, coastal and marine living resources and their habitats are being lost or damaged in ways that are both decreasing livelihood opportunities and aggravating poverty. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level. While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Nigeria’s Niger Delta is widely recognised for its rich and diverse biological resources and these natural systems form the foundation of the economy of the country, from which the majority of the population derive their livelihood. Threatened terrestrial and marine ecosystems translate to threatened livelihoods in Africa. In the Niger Delta of Nigeria exploitation of these non-living resources has damaged the coastal environment and has caused civil conflict. This paper presents the different categories of this system’s coastal resources and highlights the different methods of exploitation and the consequences of these methods. The paper exposes the different challenges of this multi-functional ecosystem of Africa’s most populous country, which also ranks fourth in the world oil producer’s list. It concludes by suggesting various ways of managing this oil-rich environment.

Yemi Akegbejo-Samsons
Chapter 8. Disaster Risk Management Through a “Watershed Plus” Approach in the Western Orissa Rural Livelihoods Project (WORLP): Orissa, India

The Western Orissa Rural Livelihoods Project is a DFID-UK funded project and is implemented by Orissa’s Agriculture Department through the Orissa Watershed Development Mission. WORLP has been implemented in the four districts of western Orissa since 2000, namely Bolangir, Nuapada, Kalahandi and Bargarh. These four project districts are among the poorest in India, with 70 % of their population of four million living below the poverty line. On average, the drought in the state happens once in every 3–5 years. Rainfall in the WORLP districts is mostly erratic and punctuated generally by long dry spells. These districts suffer from frequent drought-like conditions resulting in crop failures. The small and marginal farmers, land-less and very poor households are most vulnerable to these conditions. WORLP followed a watershed plus approach to promote sustainable livelihoods. It operates on a watershed platform. Participatory planning with the community analysed the constraints and opportunities faced by vulnerable groups and identified the livelihood needs of the poorest. The community was organised into different grassroots organisations so as to build their social capitals. Investment priorities were identified through such planning to improve the productivity of land and water and improve drinking water and sanitation. For the poorest groups, provisioning of credits through revolving and grant funds and promotion of on-farm and non-farm micro-enterprise activities diversified the livelihood portfolios. Furthermore, the capacity of government organisations, local government, NGOs and community to work together in addressing poverty was strengthened. Widespread Natural Resources Management (NRM) interventions, augmented agricultural activities, and the evolution of sensitised farming communities indicated a strong resilience against natural disasters like drought. A recent study reveals that 86 % of the marginal and small farmers in the watershed area are able to cope with natural disasters.

Gala Bhaskar Reddy, Niranjan Sahu
Chapter 9. Identifying Drivers, Barriers and Opportunities for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Indonesia: An Analysis Based on the Earth System Governance Framework

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, severity and intensity of disasters. Indonesia is known to be one of the countries most vulnerable to natural hazards. It is located in the “Pacific Ring of Fire”—a highly active geological area and scene of many incidents of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. In addition, more than half of all disaster events in Indonesia are climate-related. There have been increasing and stronger propositions for integrated disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. This chapter utilises the Earth System Governance (ESG) framework to analyse the integration of DRR and CCA in Indonesia. Journal articles and organisational reports are reviewed. This chapter examines drivers, barriers and, most importantly, opportunities for institutional integration for DRR and CCA in Indonesia. It is argued that the Indonesian government’s institutional capacity and arrangements can be both the main barrier and driver for integration. It is established that the main barrier to integration is at the national government level where separation of government organisations and sectoral ministries leads to uncoordinated planning for CCA and DRR. Strong relationships between key government organisations in DRR and non-governmental and international organisations involved both in DRR and CCA hold the key to integration of policy and practice. Moreover, opportunity for integration is even greater at the local government and community level. However, more financial and technical support from the national, international and non-government sectors is needed at the local level in order to make use of this opportunity.

Riyanti Djalante
Chapter 10. Environmental Performance and Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study of India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan

Relatively little scholarly work has focused on a comparative evaluation of South Asian countries’ environmental performance (EP) in addressing issues of vulnerability to climate change. It is an accepted fact that climate change induced problems in South Asia have been increasing over many years, but their effects have largely been blamed on extreme poverty and uncontrolled population growth. Scholarly works and government reports indicate that the countries are both individually and collectively aware of the severity of climate change and have taken some initiative aimed at adaptation and mitigation. However, it is still unknown how effective those initiatives are and how they are being implemented. This research broadly examines these countries’ EP by modelling a comparative matrix in the global as well as in the regional context. The author is interested in how India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan actually engage in addressing environmental severity caused by climate change. This research utilises (plot) various years’ data from the public domain, e.g. Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI); Environmental Performance Index (EPI). EP is presented in the framework of comparative scores on (1) environmental burden of disease; (2) water resources for human health; (3) air quality for human health; (4) air quality for ecosystems; (5) water resources for ecosystems; (6) biodiversity and habitat; (7) forestry; (8) fisheries; (9) agriculture; and (10) climate change respectively. The specific findings of this research will reflect on the efforts of the respective countries and also provide an opportunity to evaluate the cause of success or failure.

Medani P. Bhandari
Chapter 11. Institutions Matter for Urban Resilience: The Institutional Challenges in Mainstreaming Climate Smart Disaster Risk Management in Bangladesh

The core issues of this chapter are institutions, climate smart disaster risk management, adaptive capacity, and the institutional adaptation capacity. Our main focus is to review policies and strategies and institutional settings in order to identify institutional challenges to mainstream climate smart disaster risk reduction strategies in cities of Bangladesh. Therefore, the key contributions of this chapter are that we (a) identify possible entry points for mainstreaming climate smart risk management strategies, and (b) recognise some broad institutional constraints to address effectively climate change risks. Cities are at risk of the impacts of climate change on infrastructure, human lives, human health, and environmental quality. These effects will deepen in coming decades. Climate smart disaster risk management (CSDRM) approach can be considered as a holistic approach, because it provides guidelines to build adaptive capacities of local people and also local institutions. This chapter deals with some important core concepts such as institution, climate smart disaster risk management, adaptation capacity, and the institutional adaptation capacity. This chapter focuses particularly on the institutional challenges to mainstream climate smart strategies in cities of Bangladesh. For this, the chapter reviews policies, institutional settings, and legal frameworks underway in Bangladesh that respond to climate change, and discusses what currently constrains this. The review reveals that national as well as local level institutions in Bangladesh are already grappling with large deficits which limit capacity of these institutions to mainstream climate smart risk reduction strategies.

Md. Zakir Hossain, Nazmul Huq
Chapter 12. Management of Climate Change and Disaster Risk: The Malaysian Perspective

Interactions between the climate change and disaster management communities in Malaysia have brought about significant progress in recent years. With the anticipation of increasing and changing nature of disaster risks due to climate change, the need for a holistic and integrated approach to climate and disaster management is recognised at the policy and institutional levels. As the top–down initiatives are progressing, local level studies, including case-specific research areas are being pursued to provide bottom-up inputs in laying adaptation roadmaps for national and sector-specific responses to mainstream climatic hazards. Future bridging of the climate change and disaster management communities in the country through the institutional and research platforms would require addressing several issues. Considering the uncertainty within climate projection, examining the biophysical sensitivity under exposure of projected future climates may be inadequate in gaining insight into their current adaptive capacity, and whether such adaptability will transform or facilitate actual adaptation in the future. As more adaptation initiatives will be implemented in the future, it is important to ensure adaptive capacity is drawn upon and translated into action by identifying and removing barriers to ensure successful adaptation. The provision of appropriate and easily understood information regarding vulnerable areas in the future will aid local stakeholders in making decisions that could incorporate elements of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

Ching Tiong Tan, Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Chapter 13. Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Disaster Risks Through Soil Ecosystem Services

Global change will cause marked climatic alterations on a local scale; however, it remains intensely debated and new insights into their impacts on soil biota are needed. Responses of soil ecosystem to climate change can also have a substantial impact on the carbon (C) cycle (soils are estimated to contain more than double the amount of C than in vegetation). Biodiversity and ecosystem functions are influenced by climate change and species ranges are shifting. Predictions for the agricultural land area (mainly for food, fibre and fuel) showed increases by 23 (cropland) and 16 % (pastures). The ecosystem services of soils are often not recognised and the impact of agriculture e.g. on soil structure (essential for facilitating water infiltration, success of sustainable agriculture, and preventing erosion) is an issue urgent to study. As biodiversity in all biomes is sensitive to global changes in environment and land use, as well as to mitigate the problems of climate change, ecosystem services of soils which are under high mismanagement and declining soil fertility (that have allowed water pollution in urban river basins) must be taken into account and more widely discussed. Communities living near waterways extensively modify riparian zones (important for reducing floods) and, in order to alleviate the problems of climate change taking into account biodiversity in riparian systems, changes in land use must be controlled. This chapter addresses this issue by drawing on soil properties, soil biota and on current thinking regarding ecosystem services, in order to attain a better understanding of ecosystems and disaster risk, especially in Brazil. For this purpose, a case study in the south-eastern region of Brazil has been analysed.

Marcela C. Pagano
Chapter 14. The Contributions of Climate Change Mitigating Policies to Poverty Reduction in the Sahel Region

Although there is a relationship between climate change and poverty reduction, some countries in the Sahel region of Africa are yet to incorporate a climate change risk management strategy into their poverty reduction programme. The aim of this research is therefore to evaluate the subjective and quantitative analysis of climate change risk management strategies in all the nine countries that constitute the Sahel region. Both a qualitative and a quantitative approach were used in the investigation. The qualitative approach was used to make a subjective analysis of the climate change mitigating framework with regard to poverty reduction issues at country level. It was based on a scoring system methodology by assessing the following criteria:

The consideration of climate change scenarios and the vulnerabilities of the countries;

The analysis of poverty-climate links;

The climate change institutional framework of each country.

The quantitative approach was based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This was done by applying DEA Solver to evaluate the efficiency of climate change mitigating frameworks and their impact on poverty reduction. The results of the investigation revealed that none of the Sahel countries, excluding Burkina Faso, included climate change risk management in their Poverty Reduction Strategy and Policies (PRSP). Burkina Faso’s National Adaptation Policies Action (NAPA) performs well. Burkina Faso is considered a model country which has included climate change policies in its PRSP. However, as with most countries in the region, the Burkina Faso climate change risk management policy is not comprehensive. This is a result of inadequate climate change risk management projects, exclusion of real needs and other exogenous parameters. However, in Senegal, more efforts are required in response to climate change risk management in order to reduce poverty. This is paramount for the following reasons: the inclusion of climate change risk management into PRSP important in increasing its understanding several challenges require to be addressed for good implementation and to ensure a good monitoring system. Stakeholders in the sector will be more effective and efficient in developing action plans for climate change management strategies and poverty reduction programmes.

Labintan Adeniyi Constant, Mignouna Babatima Djana, Ituma Chibueze Calistus
Chapter 15. Impacts of Cyclone Aila on Educational Institutions: A Study of South-Western Bangladesh

Bangladesh is considered one of the most disaster-prone countries in South Asia; the country is frequently threatened, mainly by floods and cyclones. Aila, a Category 1 cyclone, hit the south-western coastal region of Bangladesh on 25 May 2009. About 2.3 million people were affected by Aila. This paper is about the damage wreaked by Cyclone Aila on the educational institutions of Bangladesh. The study area is Khulna District’s affected Upazilas (Thana), namely Dacope, Koyra and Paikgachha. A rapid assessment was carried out by the education cluster in the three most affected Upazilas and it was estimated that a total of 365 schools out of 480 had been affected. This study selects three criteria to measure the damage to educational institutions. Most of the damage information was collected from secondary sources; impact information was collected by field survey. Simple random sampling is applied here. Generally, children are the most vulnerable group in all types of disaster, but there are no major educational programmes related to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in primary or secondary schools in Bangladesh. Thus, teaching DRR in schools will help raise awareness and give better understanding, not just for children and teachers but in the community at large. At the same time, investing in strengthening school building structures before disasters take place would help reduce long-term costs, protect the community and the children, and ensure educational continuity after the event. This study focuses on these points.

Sumana Sharmin, Rumana Naznin
Chapter 16. The Role of Mangroves in Disaster Mitigation: A Review

The aim of this chapter is to study the role played by mangrove ecosystems in minimising the impact of disasters like tsunamis, floods and cyclones. A comparison of the studies concerning effective mitigation of tsunamis and natural disasters by mangrove ecosystems was carried out for various countries, but with a special focus on India. A study of the role of mangroves across various states in India is also presented. The main findings based on the literature review are that mangroves occurring near the coast play an important role in the protection of the coast from the natural disasters like tsunamis, floods, cyclones, and rising sea levels, etc. The conclusion reached is that it is necessary for humans to realise the dangers and consequences of undermining the services provided by the coastal ecosystems in coastal protection and to conserve mangroves in every part of the world. The value of this chapter lies in presenting an exhaustive review of the role played by mangroves in mitigating disasters.

Seema Unnikrishnan, Anju Singh, Manoj Kharat
Chapter 17. Vulnerability Assessment for Rural Settings: Applicability to Developing Countries

It is now widely accepted that climate change will lead to intensification of the global hydrological cycle and will subsequently impact on regional water resources. Variability in climate conditions in Uganda is already having major impact on food security due to prolonged drought, high temperatures, floods and landslides that have lately been prevalent, especially in the northern region. This region has recorded consecutive years of crop failure and low livestock productivity due to erratic weather conditions and inadequate rainfall, which has impacted negatively on food security in the region with records of famine and hunger in some districts during the 2000s. With the smallest number of natural water resources, northern Uganda has been over-dependent on rainfall and ground water sources for its water requirements. Prolonged temperature increase is likely to exacerbate the problems of the already difficult water balance faced in the region and rainfall patterns have already started changing with precipitation being just above the evapotranspiration during the rainy season but the trend quickly reverses at the onset of the dry seasons. This paper aims to illustrate the practical applications of vulnerability assessment frameworks for rural settings in developing countries, based on an ongoing water harvesting project for rural smallholder farming systems in northern Uganda, whose main objective is to improve farm water management systems for enhanced agricultural productivity and poverty alleviation. This paper examines the applicability of vulnerability assessment frameworks and methodologies to such poverty-ridden rural settings in Uganda, which can be classified as a developing country. Participatory methods were used to collect data using a combination of adaptation and participatory tools from climate vulnerability and capacity analysis (CVCA) and community-based risk screening tools for adaptation and livelihoods (CRiSTAL) as decision support tools to analyse the vulnerability assessment. Results obtained by qualitative analysis show that there is high vulnerability to floods, HIV/AIDS, and anthropogenic activities, notably including civil wars and cattle rustling. The paper concludes that a combination of vulnerability assessment tools can give more rational and realistic results, and that efforts should be made to take stakeholder inputs into consideration while developing and applying the vulnerability assessment tools. It is recommended that vulnerability assessment tools for developing countries be standardised for ease of replication and applicability.

Abel Niyibizi, Aquila Mpeirwe, Susan Ajambo

CATEGORY 2

Chapter 18. A Sensitivity Study of Storm Surges Under the Conditions of Climate Change in the Elbe Estuary

For adequate adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg, a detailed understanding of the future hydrodynamic situation along the German Elbe is required. To achieve this aim, we will investigate the impact of a possible change in climate on storm surge water levels along the Tidal Elbe. The outcomes will help to identify vulnerabilities and aid the development of adaptation measures as part of the project KLIMZUG-Nord. A sensitivity study is carried out for probable future storm surge scenarios: based on historical events, the scenarios are derived by systematic variation of the key parameters influencing storm surge conditions in the estuary. A hydrodynamic numerical model is used to calculate water levels, currents and characteristic numbers in the Elbe whilst a meteorological model provides the local wind field. An increase of mean sea level, wind speed and river discharge influences the storm surge characteristics along the Tidal Elbe. A rise in mean sea level and wind speed leads to an increase in high water levels. Upstream of Hamburg, high water levels are mainly affected by river discharge. However, the sensitivity of water levels to the key parameters varies along the estuary. This behaviour is observed for two investigated storm surge types. The results enable us to identify vulnerabilities along the Tidal Elbe for a range of possible future storm surge conditions. It can be determined whether existing protection strategies will be effective or must simply be replaced by new concepts. In the future the present results can be assigned to climate change projections and estimations of occurrence.

Annette Schulte-Rentrop, Elisabeth Rudolph
Chapter 19. An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change for Management and Governance of the Antarctic Region

In recent years, great advances have been made in our understanding of Antarctic climate and environmental change. For lawyers, knowledge is relevant primarily because it reinforces decision-making. In some cases, a more in-depth knowledge and awareness leads to the fundamental rethinking of an approach to a situation or the respective legal construction. For a long time analysed as a “pole apart”, Antarctica is not treated in this article simply as proof of climate change and interconnectivity: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will use these data to integrate the results of the International Polar Year (IPY) in its Fifth Report (2014). Rather, in this article we analyse the region’s relationship with climate risk management, as Antarctic actors try to transform the IPY legacy into a more effective Antarctic regime. The extensive cooperation in Antarctica, centred on the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), is certainly a good foundation for achieving concrete results. From 2006, climate risk management has been given some attention by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM XXIX). Following the SCAR Report (2009), the Parties of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) met in 2010 in Norway. The meeting served to redefine the Antarctic Region as an element in and for climate-smart disaster risk management. It was recognised that the Antarctic Region offers a unique environment for the study of climate change, and the matter became a specific item within the ATS. The parties agreed to adopt a climate change response work programme. Improving protection for the Antarctic Region means acting on climate capacity building regarding in situ growth activities. A more regional approach to the application of environmental management tools is to be taken into particular consideration. However, according to an integrated interpretation of the Antarctic environment (holistic approach), is the federal cooperation strong enough to face up to concrete future challenges?

Danilo Comba
Chapter 20. An Analysis of the Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Crop Zones Classification for the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria

This study aims at analysing agro-climatological parameters and establishing a link between certain selected agro-climatological indices and the sustainability of agricultural production in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Two sets of data, climatic and crop yield data were collected and subjected to various agro-climatological analyses. Agro-climatological analyses include the derivation of onset, cessation and Length of rainy season (LRS), seasonality index, drought index and precipitation periodicity index. The statistical analyses include monthly and annual means, and deviation from the mean trend line. The result of moisture index in line with crops optimum moisture requirement was used to classify the territory into agro-climatic zones for crop production. The result of the climatic indices revealed that although rainfall has declined throughout the study period, the results from other derived rainfall parameters showed that the region has done well in terms of crop yield. Temperature and humidity levels have increased during the study period owing not just to global warming alone but also to some anthropogenic activities, particularly deforestation through the activities of using wood as a fuel and the charcoal business within the territory. The uniqueness of the rainfall pattern was very clear (increasing from south to north). Another important feature is the division of the region into two climatic zones by the PP Index. The result in the characterisation of the territory into crop-ecological zones revealed three ecological zones whose rainfall is zonal in orientation: (1) the southern humid zone, (2) the mid-central sub humid zone, and (3) the north-eastern humid zone. It is therefore recommended that further studies be carried out on trends of agro-climatic conditions in the study area.

Hassan Shuaib Musa
Chapter 21. Building Climate Resilience in Coastal Ecosystems in India: Cases and Trends in Adaptation Practices

Changes in precipitation, temperature, drought, and sea level rise a rise in sea level are increasingly being seen as affecting the world’s ecosystems and natural resource base. Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have provided ample evidence of the importance of climate variability in the changing nature of natural resource ecology, as well as the vulnerability of communities and their livelihoods. Climate variability and the rise in the incidents of extreme events and disasters like cyclones are major threats to the coastal and marine ecosystems in the Indian subcontinent, e.g. low-lying islands and coastal regions, some of which are already facing partial submergence, resulting in shoreline changes. Most of the coastal ecosystems in the South Asian region have a very high population density and are dependent on an agro-economy, whilst increasing changes to the weather have often led to adverse impacts on the local eco-diversity. Ecosystem-dependent communities are particularly vulnerable where single-crop agriculture, fishing and harvesting of other local resources are practised. These in turn could be adversely affected by changes such as sea level rise, increase in salinity, changing patterns of rainfall, and an increase in moisture content in the atmosphere leading to increasing incidences of vector-borne diseases. Addressing traditional knowledge systems with new research ideas and the development of innovative technologies is the need of the hour in order to provide a suitable adaptation response in the face of adverse climate impacts and natural disasters. The paper discusses approaches and trends for enhancing the coping capacity of coastal communities through two cases in India from the Sundarbans in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The paper also throws light on integrating national/state policies and programmes for mainstreaming climate adaptation practices in development planning.

Prakash Rao
Chapter 22. Climate-Change Refugees in Nepal: The Need for Climate-Smart Capacity Building

The Himalayan region of Nepal is relatively vulnerable to climate change. This is the first recognised case of climate change refugees in Nepal, affecting the village of Dhe in Upper Mustang in the western Himalayan region of Nepal. A total of 23 households are being relocated due to the adverse impact of climate change on the livelihoods of the people in the village. A feasibility study for possible resettlement with a water supply is underway. The new settlement would be the first model village for climate refugees. It would be solar-powered, have plenty of greenery and appropriate land allocation for public use, such as parks and a market. Dhe has been facing an acute shortage of water for drinking and irrigation over the last 6–7 years. There is hardly any greenery to be seen around the village. This chapter will examine possible alternatives for keeping people in the same location to which they have a sentimental attachment and have adapted in many other ways. Solar energy for pumping water from nearby sources, collection of rainwater from roofs for drinking (which provides about 5–10 L per person per day), collection of rainwater in ponds for irrigation, use of drip irrigation, and an EcoSan latrine can all be promoted. This chapter examines new thinking on preventing climate change refugees and enabling them to stay where they are with dignity and a more adaptive capacity using climate-smart technologies, and suggests how governments can invest in these areas, which contribute little to climate change but are more vulnerable to its adverse effects.

Nam Raj Khatri
Chapter 23. Effective Policy Communication Strategy to Enhance Capacity Building for the Diffusion of Innovation in Climate Change Mitigation for Sustainable Disaster Risk Management

The main objectives are to: present a brief synopsis of climate change communication initiatives in Uganda; describe the significance of an effective policy communication strategy in enhancing public awareness communication campaigns for climate change innovations and policy implementation; identify the key stakeholders who should be involved in the mitigations of the impacts of climate change in order to initiate policy innovations and dissemination for disaster risk management; establish the critical enabling factors and the practical challenges encountered in climate change policy innovations; discuss the lessons learned and make realistic recommendations, such as developing an effective national climate change policy communication strategy for sustainable indigenous communities in Uganda and the rest of Africa. This review collated published evidence on the use of, and effectiveness of, sustainability and behaviour change communications strategies for innovations in climate change awareness, adaptation, vulnerability, resilience, and mitigations among indigenous peoples in Uganda; using relevant search terms. Information was accessed using internet search engines and libraries. More data was sought from the databases of institutional, national, regional, and international agencies. Most of the severe problems of the increasing vulnerabilities related to the impacts of climate change in Uganda have come about because of the information gaps amongst most Ugandans about the correct use of environmental resources to curb climate change for sustainable development. All the key stakeholders in Uganda’s development research process are aware of this. UNFCC addresses sustainable development issues with a focus on environmental concerns, access to north–south disaster technology transfers, financial aid, capacity building, and accessible information for sustainable community development.

Wilson Okaka
Chapter 24. Local Adaptation as a Future Flood Management Strategy in Rotterdam

The areas outside the levees in Rotterdam, the so called unembanked areas, will face two important developments in the next few years. While climate change increases the risk of flooding of these unembanked areas, land use in these areas is also intensifying. The former port areas in Rotterdam are important inner city development zones and will fundamentally change the developed footprint of the Rotterdam floodplain over the next 50 years. Both developments aggravate the risks of future disasters, while at the same time the increased economic value could cause the possible consequences of flooding to become more severe.The city of Rotterdam has begun different studies (Veerbeek et al.

2010

; Veelen et al.

2010a

,

b

) to get better acquainted with the risk and consequences of the increased vulnerability to flooding. The present study, which started in February 2011, aims to develop a future water safety strategy for Rotterdam aimed at reducing the vulnerability by minimising the local consequences of flooding. This approach is set within the Dutch context, with a strong tradition of reducing the probability of flooding, considered to be a new and unexploited direction. This paper presents the results of an analysis of the vulnerability of the unembanked areas and presents the first principles to develop a local adaptive strategy in the case of Kop van Feijenoord in Rotterdam.

Peter van Veelen
Chapter 25. On the Way to a Flood Risk Management Plan

The Flood Directive EC 2007/60 specifies the structure and objectives of the flood risk management plan and the favourable mitigation measures to be taken for reducing the risk. However, little information is given about the strategy to develop and implement this management plan on a local level. There is an obvious need to find a good governance concept which best supports the implementation process and which will lead to acceptance and proper application of the new paradigm in flood risk management. Within the INTERREG IVb project SAWA (

http://www.sawa-project.eu/

) the authors have developed and implemented a participatory planning approach for the implementation of a flood risk management plan according to EC FD, which tries to meet the requirements of good governance through broad stakeholder involvement in the planning process. It uses Learning and Action Alliances (LAA) as a communication and decision making platform in which public and professional stakeholders can develop the plan together in a four-step cycle of awareness raising, understanding, experimenting, and evaluation. The software tool KALPYPSO Planer-Client, developed within SAWA, can be regarded as a corner stone in this decision-making process. It enables professional and public stakeholders to define their own scenarios of drivers, flood mitigation and adaptation measures, and to evaluate the impact and efficiency of these scenarios. This new governance approach will be demonstrated with a real case study—the Wandse urban catchment, Hamburg—and the results and experiences will be discussed.

Natasa Manojlovic, Niloufar Behzadina, Erik Pasche (posthumous)
Chapter 26. The Essential Role of Employment and the Workplace in Climate Change Policy and Effective Disaster Risk Management Planning

The transition to a low carbon economy will occur over the next generation. During this period governments will determine law and policy that includes greenhouse gas emission targets and defines emission management strategies and strategies to manage the consequences of the increased frequency of extreme weather events. This paper explores the implications of climate change policy for employment and the workplace, and its role in effective disaster risk management planning. Climate change is a significant concern being addressed both globally and domestically. Regulations will be designed to ensure consistency with government policy. Business and actors in the workplace will, by necessity, adapt to the new requirements. The challenge is to ensure regulators’ objectives are matched with the requirements for business continuity, the labour market, a just transition and in the context of disaster risk management the ability to earn sufficient income to meet the basic daily needs of the individual or family. Ecological modernisation theorists support the school of thought that environmental outcomes are achieved through the relationship between the nation state, the economy and innovation, and social movements. Ecological modernisation provides a suitable framework within which to analyse these relationships. This paper will address issues associated with climate change policy including disaster risk management in the context of ecological modernisation theory with a particular focus on the role of industry and the impact on employment and the workplace.

Peter J. Glynn, Roslyn Taplin
Chapter 27. Understanding the Dynamics of Climate Change Impacts on Forest-Dependent Livelihoods in Rural Ghana: Implications for Climate Change Resilient Policy

Forest resources and rain-fed agriculture play key roles in the livelihoods of the majority of rural dwellers in Ghana. Climate change and variability, characterised by several consequences, is expected to adversely affect forest dependent-livelihoods. This study was conducted to examine the impact of climate change on forest-dependent livelihoods and rural communities’ socio-economic vulnerability levels as well as their adaptation strategies. Questionnaires, interviews and direct observations were used to collect data from respondents in four ecological zones. The socio-economic vulnerability assessment of the four ecological zones was estimated using six socio-economic indicators and subsequently ranked using the “Three Category Ranking Method”. The Transition and Sudan Savannah zones were ranked the most vulnerable to climate change out of the four ecological zones. The zones’ vulnerability was due to interacting socio-demographic and socio-economic factors such as high illiteracy level, limited range of income sources, and low access to climate change information. Crop diversification, household income diversification, peri-urban migration and an increase in farm size are among the different measures adopted by communities to cope with the effects of climate change. To enhance rural communities’ resilience, fundamental issues such as illiteracy, options of non-climate dependent livelihoods, access to climate change information and sustainable agricultural practices are key areas for policy intervention.

William Kwadwo Dumenu, Elizabeth Asantewaa Obeng, Sparkler Brefo Samar, Ebenezer Owusu-Sekyere, Emmanuel Asiedu-Opoku

CATEGORY 3

Chapter 28. An Outline for Funding Adaptation and Disaster Management Schemes

This paper develops further a proposal to split continued climate negotiations into two separate blocks. The first block deals with historical emissions of greenhouse gases, including a mutual debt cancellation: the accumulated carbon debts of developed countries up to a cut-off year would be swapped for conventional monetary debts of developing countries. The second block deals with future emissions and how to finance adaption to climate change. Following the “polluter pays” principle, the funds should be collected in proportion to the responsibility for climate change and redistributed in proportion to the needs for adaption and management of climate-related risks. A system based on separate blocks ensures large flexibility. For example, the system of fund collection after the cut-off point could be taken from Oliver Tickell’s “Kyoto2”proposal, which puts forward a system for levying climate funds via fossil-fuel production permits. Peter Illig again provides a reminder of the important concepts of direct access, intended to establish a clearly defined and transparent system for delivering financial resources as close to the targeted impact as possible, and also highlighting the distinction between compensation and development aid. Finally, some incentives to join the proposed scheme are suggested.

Jan Kunnas
Chapter 29. How Effective is Small Dam Flood Safety Accountability and Assurance Policy in Vietnam?

This paper examines the effectiveness of small dam safety accountability, responsibility and assurance policy practices in Vietnam. Vietnam is of interest because of the catastrophic consequences of an increasing number of dam failures in recent years associated to floods. Yet the solutions necessary to minimise dam failure in Vietnamese floods remain unexplored. The effectiveness of the Vietnamese small dam safety accountability, responsibility and assurance policy practices was tested in three stages. First, international benchmarks were established based on available literature for comparison with the case study in Vietnam. Second, ten on-site dam surveys were undertaken in Tan Moc commune to explore prevalent dam safety problems. Third, fifteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with five key stakeholder groups to examine perceptions of the effectiveness of the current policy and associated practices. The surveys demonstrated that all ten dams surveyed were rated “High” hazard and were at high risk of failure because of physical and management inadequacies. Interview evidence confirmed floods were the dominant cause of dam safety deficiencies and dam failures. In addition, accountability and responsibility for dam safety was poorly implemented, giving low levels of assurance to communities. The comparison showed that Vietnam not only failed to satisfy international benchmarks but also performed far below the minimum level. This research provides an original contribution towards assessing the status of small dam safety management and assurance policy in developing countries such as Vietnam.

Tuyet Thi Dam, Roger L. Burritt, John D. Pisaniello
Chapter 30. Management of Disaster Risks Derived from Large Fuel Subsidies of Natural Gas in Argentina

Through a system of heavy subsidies, natural gas in Argentina has one of the lowest prices in the world. Residential users get the lowest price per m

3

delivered, but the price for businesses is also very low. In comparison, prices for residential use in 24 countries listed by the International Energy Agency (IEA,

2011a

) averages USD 0.79/m

3

; while in Argentina the price ranges from 0.02 to USD 0.10/m

3

, the lowest for the coldest regions where consumption in buildings is higher. Since 2003 the price per unit of energy of residential gas is 10–20 times lower than diesel, 5–10 times lower than firewood, and 10–20 times lower than electricity. As a consequence, customers have been misled by low bills and have solved the inefficiencies of buildings and appliances by very high consumption, postponing what otherwise would have been much-needed refurbishments. No public awareness exists on this situation. Attempts made by the government in 2009 to raise prices ended in public protests and court demands, and the largest increases had to be withdrawn. There are high risks of social unrest due to a lack of education and options related to fuel consumption. Recent serious social unrest as a result of higher gas tariffs in Punta Arenas, southern Chile, confirmed the behaviour observed in 2009 in Argentina. In both cases, no energy conservation measures have been done. Other risks include reduction or extinction of gas reserves, unsustainable budgets to support subsidies, discouragement of renewable energies, and pressure on native forests for firewood. Education and dedicated energy conservation measures are proposed to manage disaster risks derived from decades of subsidies.

Alejandro D. González
Chapter 31. Preventing Climate Disasters: Legal and Economic Aspects of the Implementation of the National Fund on Climate Change in Brazil

The scientific and technological development over the course of the 20th century has changed the conditions of human life substantially by creating new ways of social, communicational, and economic interaction around the world. However, this new way of life has altered the environment and generated the unwelcome phenomenon of climate change. Several environmental disasters are occurring around the world because of climate change. In Brazil, climate change has caused environmental disasters such as droughts and floods. Before this situation, many countries have enforced new legal norms at national and international level in order to face this challenge. According to this trend, Brazil is committed to enforce new environmental legal norms and has created the National Fund on Climate Change. Thus, the objective of this paper is to study the legal and economic aspects related to the National Fund on Climate Change taking into account Brazilian national policies and economic data available at the International Energy Agency and at the Brazilian Energy Balance.

Patricia Borba Villar Guimarães, Anderson Lanzillo
Chapter 32. The Economics of Climate Change, Urbanisation, and Long-Term Flood Protection

Heavily urbanised areas located in the low-lying deltas of Asia have been identified as being especially vulnerable to climate-related impacts (IPCC

2007

). It has been predicted that coastal cities in East and South Asia will face an increase in the exposure of population and assets to flooding (Nicholls et al.

2008

). Climate change projections suggest the possibility of an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods in these areas. At the same time, urban growth will increase the value of potential flood damages and vulnerability in the region. Given these changing disaster risks, coastal cities will need to revisit their long-term disaster risk management strategies with special consideration to flood protection investments and urban development plans. A balance will need to be found between the potential increases in flood damages and the economic benefits from growth in areas vulnerable to floods over the next decades. This paper presents an economic analysis of investments in flood protection infrastructure to mitigate increased disaster risk due to climate change and urbanisation based on hydrologic, engineering, and socio-economic considerations. The analysis is applied in the Ho Chi Minh City province of Vietnam, an area that is growing rapidly and is also subject to flooding. Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis is used to study the economic viability of alternative infrastructure designs for flood protection. The analysis improves upon traditional disaster risk planning by taking into account future changes in flood frequencies due to climate change and changes urban development due to economic growth. The framework presented illustrates the potential to incorporate economic methods in the evaluation of investments for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

David Corderi Novoa

CATEGORY 4

Chapter 33. Adapting to Climate Change in a High Mountain Environment: Developing a Monitoring Expert System for Hazardous Rock Walls

The research project MOREXPERT (“Monitoring Expert System for Hazardous Rock Walls”) investigates short and medium term responses of slope stability to climatic changes in high alpine rock walls. The study contributes to the question how man and infrastructure are potentially affected by these responses. Based on a combination of geophysical, geotechnical and borehole measurements, surface and subsurface conditions are monitored within the study area at the Kitzsteinhorn (3.203 m), Hohe Tauern, Austria. Factors controlling slope stability in steep bedrock, most notably freeze/thaw and permafrost dynamics, are identified and analysed with respect to changing climatic conditions. The fundamental goal of this research project is the development of a general decision support system for slope stability assessment in steep bedrock. Due to its flexible structure the decision support system is intended to be adaptable for application to rock walls of other regions.

Ingo Hartmeyer, Markus Keuschnig, Jan-Christoph Otto, Lothar Schrott
Chapter 34. Addressing Adaptation to Support Disaster Risk Reduction: A Framework for Supply Chain Inclusive Adaptation to Climate Change

Global climate change (GCC) presents serious challenges to agricultural systems as they strive to meet increasing demand over the coming decades. Within these systems, food value chains are increasingly recognised as being vital for development, yet relatively little is known about the vulnerability of such chains to GCC, or their capacity to adapt. This paper provides a framework to examine how food value chains are affected by the uncertain impacts posed by GCC and what this implies for adaptation. While intervention models mostly deal with measures for producers, the authors hypothesise that adaptation strategies must include the entire chain to achieve the scale needed to tackle GCC. The authors propose that comprehensive situation assessment is necessary to examine both behaviour and assets—two key attributes for adaptive capacities. This framework examines three sets of attributes: (1) The general setup and nature of the supply chain; (2) rural livelihoods’ and food supply systems’ vulnerability to GCC, including downscaled crop suitability modelling to assess precise impacts of GCC, and (3) the behaviour of people and entities involved in value creation and the institutions mediating them. The framework provides decision-makers with a scale, crop and site independent road map to design and evaluate adaptation strategies to changing climate conditions. The authors test the framework in three case studies with differing supply chain characteristics and geographical contexts.

Andreas Benedikter, Peter Läderach, Anton Eitzinger, Simon Cook, Michele Bruni
Chapter 35. An Analysis of the Connection Between Climate Change, Technological Solutions and Potential Disaster Management: The Contribution of Geoengineering Research

In this article, the author uses a critical political economy approach to provide a basic topology of the current state of geoengineering research, funding and testing. The central argument is that the material

and discursive

monopolisation of geoengineering research and discussion by elite groups—political, economic and scientific-technological—has led to the marginalisation of the public from this debate and has presented a distorted view of its (geoengineering’s) need. Its connection to the main theme of this conference is located in the very clear nexus between climate change, the potentially disastrous outcomes of increased global warming and an examination of the potentially equally dangerous consequences of technologically intensive solutions (like geoengineering) that do not address but disregard the core problem: overconsumption based a resource-extractive and energy-intensive economic system. This piece begins with a brief introduction to geoengineering technologies. I then outline the critical political economy approach which is, at its core, a historically and socially reflexive method that focuses on unpacking the “production and reproduction of…structures” (Mosco

1996

, 29) of privilege, followed by a brief justification of why it is pertinent in this context. Following this, the author delivers a critical snapshot of some of the most striking, and simultaneously troubling, geoengineering research currently taking place worldwide. The paper ends with a call for the public to get aggressively involved in learning about geoengineering and engaging in critically informed geoengineering activism, both online and offline.

Tina Sikka
Chapter 36. An Engineering/Accounting Tool for Minimising the Cumulative Flood Threats of Rural Catchment Dams

Small dam failures can be catastrophic. Small rural catchment dams pose failure threats at individual and cumulative levels and both must be accounted for during design of dams to minimise the flood risks to downstream communities and the environment. This chapter aims to address this need for an engineering/accounting tool through conceptual development of a cost-effective farm dam flood safety tool and its link to an international best practice dam safety assurance policy model. The tool’s development process involves generating catchment data representing “hydrologically homogenous” regions using complex best-practice dams/flood engineering, to derive simple regionalised flood capability prediction relationships of reliable accuracy. Preliminary development in the Australian State of Tasmania has enabled testing of the tool’s transferability to a wide range of hydrology-variant regions. Results demonstrate the tool’s successful transferability to different regions; how the prediction relationships would be refined by future research; and how the tool can link to Tasmania’s international best practice dam safety policy which includes “farmer friendly” elements. Overall the chapter shows how governments can provide adequate yet cost-effective dam safety accountability and assurance policy to ensure that individual potentially hazardous dams are kept safe and cumulative safety threats posed by rural catchment dams are minimised. Developing the tool in Tasmania, with its wide variety of regions, illuminates the potential for transferability of the development process to other regions worldwide.

John D. Pisaniello, Arthur Spassis, Roger L. Burritt
Chapter 37. Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management: Evidence-Based Planning at Two Foster Homes in Kalimantan

Under-served communities in developing countries are more vulnerable to impacts in natural resources caused by climate change. Variability in these resources has the potential to result in disasters. This paper describes a study undertaken by one NGO to assist two off-grid foster homes, BK and LW, in Kalimantan in addressing rainfall variability for their domestic and agricultural water supply. Two satellite rainfall datasets were considered: CMORPH and TRMM. Monthly totals were obtained from 2003 to 2010, and compared against meteorological data from the closest airport using Friedman’s test. Based on the results, the TRMM dataset was selected for analysis. Linear regression analysis was performed on the annual rainfall data at each foster home from 2003 to 2010 to analyse rainfall trends. The results for BK showed a marginal increasing trend (y = 20x + 3964), while LW showed an increasing trend (y = 180x + 2770). These results correlate well with reported observations, and the data reflected the El Niño drought in 2006 and 2009. Based on these findings and other studies to qualify alternative water supplies, BK will be encouraged to explore well water, while LW will be encouraged to expand rainfall harvesting.

Gerard Chew
Chapter 38. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010, and increases in storm surge levels of up to 0.8 m in 2100 are estimated. The changes in extreme catchment run-off and sea water level have a significant effect on the flood risk in the river system. While most parts today have a low risk of dike overtopping with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.1 % or less, the worst case scenario in 2100 show annual exceedance probabilities of 5 % or more in the downstream part of the river system.

Henrik Madsen, Maria Sunyer, Jacob Larsen, Mads N. Madsen, Bo Møller, Tobias Drückler, Martin Matzdorf, Jørgen Nicolaisen
Chapter 39. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Case of Coastal Cities in South East Asia

As climate change is likely to have negative impacts on coastal areas in many regions including South East Asia, improved knowledge on the understanding of assessment methods and results is gaining interest. Based on an on-going project implemented by the asian institute of technology (AIT) and partners in South East Asia, with the goal to enhance local adaptive capacities through learning from the cooperative research results on climate change impacts in coastal cities of the region, this paper provides overall information and progressive results of the project, including a review of climate change vulnerability and risk assessment processes, as well as available tools/techniques for the assessment, whilst also conducting a rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) with a case study. Conclusions and recommendations are also made for the next steps of the project and possible contributions to other related projects and cities.

Vilas Nitivattananon, Lam Vu Thanh Noi, Worapong Lohpaisankrit
Chapter 40. Conservation of Ligawasan Marsh in Mindanao, Philippines, Through an Indigenous Knowledge System: Climate Change Mitigation and Disaster Risk Management

The Ligawasan Marsh (LM) area, comprising 288,000 ha, is home to hundreds of thousands of Magindanawn Bangsamoro fishermen/rice farmers whose basic means of livelihood are wild fishing and traditional rice farming. This study assessed the indigenous knowledge system (IKS), laws and conservation practices in fishing and rice farming and the sustainability of the marshland for climate and disaster risk management. The fisher-farmers practised traditional fishing and farming beliefs/rituals, which promote sustainability. Indigenous laws banning electric and chemical fishing and fly catching were strictly enforced. A peaceful co-existence was preserved between the traditional and religious groups and the Bangsamoro mujahedeen leaders to enable them to work in unity despite their cultural differences. An exclusive open access regarding the rights to control over accessibility and utilisation of the marshland was practised. Aquatic wildlife with economic value remained abundant in the marshland (fish, crustaceans, molluscs, and other aquatic organisms). Values obtained on the physico-chemical properties of the marshland were within normal range, indicating that the area remains an ideal habitat for fish and other aquatic resources. The overall level of sustainability including factors such as ecological soundness, cultural acceptability, social justice, economic viability and technological appropriateness were rated moderate. This indicates that the marshland has gained some degree of degradation due to the occurrence of natural calamities and centuries of utilisation by the fishers-farmers. A sustainability framework is put forward to strike a balance between the socio-economic, bio-physical environment, IKS, and laws to enhance sustainability of the Ligawasan Marsh for climate and disaster risk management.

Harris M. Sinolinding, Fe L. Porciuncula, Onofre S. Corpuz
Chapter 41. Decision Support System for Small Reservoir Water Harvesting Technology in Drought-Prone Areas for Climate Change Adaptation

A computer-based decision support system was designed, developed and tested to address a range of advisory support for rain-fed farming, i.e. crop selection, scheduling, water management and optimisation. The system was utilised for agricultural planning on sustainable agriculture in the rain-fed ecosystem through the use of indigenous water harvesting technology for supplemental irrigation, thereby increasing production and at the same time managing soil and water resources for a climate change adaptive strategy. The application of the model was carried out using crop, soil, and climate and water resource data. With the analysis of 30-year rainfall data from an agro-meteorological station based at Echague, Isabela, simulations for Cagayan Valley conditions were undertaken on probabilities of wet and dry periods, and with various capacities of the water reservoir used for supplemental irrigation. Through the analysis, useful information was obtained to determine feasible project sites, suitable crops in the region, cropping schedule and pattern appropriate and optimisation of the use of the land and water resources that can be achieved in areas irrigated by small water harvesting systems.

Orlando F. Balderama
Chapter 42. Reading the Weather: Climate Risk Adaptation in Mongolia

This article investigates the underlying forces that have led to the disastrous impact of recent extreme climate events in Mongolia and explores strategies to better deal with such events. In-depth field research was carried out following the 2010 extreme winter known as

dzud

making use of a combination of participatory research techniques, individual and focus group interviews, and surveys. The harsh winter of 2010 was one of the worst of its kind resulting in the death of eight and a half million livestock. In the last decade, this kind of extreme weather event has been on the rise. Herders have encountered serious difficulties in coping with them, preparing for them and mitigating their impact. Following the transition from a Soviet-dominated regime to democracy and a free market, pastoral livelihoods have become much more exposed to three interrelated forces: climate change and weather dynamics, natural resource degradation, in particular of grasslands and water, and rapid societal change. Co-management of natural resources is a form of collective adaptive management that reduces risks related to climate and societal change. Co-management could benefit from the timely delivery of improved weather forecasting, in particular on a local level. The scaling-out of co-management would benefit from stronger government support in terms of legal protection of new organisational forms, technical and financial support, and improved rural services. The results of this research deepen our understanding of the complexity of the forces that have made herding much riskier. It also opens a window to the benefits of co-management which the government of Mongolia aims to scale out nationally as a means to deal with climate change and related risks.

Wang Xiaoli, Ronnie Vernooy
Chapter 43. The Potential of Latin American Coffee Production Systems to Mitigate Climate Change

A carbon footprint is used to define the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) that is emitted along supply chains and is the first step towards reducing GHG emissions. In the coffee sector specifically, there is little literature and data regarding the carbon footprints of different coffee production systems and supply chains. Therefore, GHG data from different coffee production systems has been compiled for this study and compared to on-farm carbon stocks and the relevant carbon footprint. To quantify on-farm carbon stocks and carbon footprints the cool farm tool (CFT) has been used. The CFT uses the Tier II methodology of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) and is based on empirical GHG quantification models built from hundreds of peer-reviewed studies. Field data has been collected in five countries across Latin America, from the following coffee production systems: (i) traditional polycultures, (ii) commercial polycultures, (iii) shaded monocultures, and (iv) unshaded monocultures. The results show low mean carbon footprints for coffee produced in traditional polycultures (3.7 kg CO

2

-ekg

−1

) and commercial polycultures (3.9 kg CO

2

-ekg

−1

), versus high carbon footprints for shaded monocultures (9.2 kg CO

2

-ekg

−1

) and unshaded monocultures (9.4 kg CO

2

-ekg

−1

). The same trend is observed with regard to mean on-farm carbon stocks; polycultures (70.9 t C ha

−1

) versus monocultures (17.8 t C ha

−1

). Based on these results a framework for site-specific mitigation has been developed to assist coffee farmers in defining climate friendly farm practices in order to accelerate climate change mitigation in Latin American coffee production.

Henk van Rikxoort, Peter Läderach, Jos van Hal
Chapter 44. Waterlogging Through Soil-Less Agriculture as a Climate Resilient Adaptation Option

Under the coastal embankment project (CEP) in the 1960s, a large number of cross-dams or polders have been constructed for irrigation purposes throughout Bangladesh, especially in coastal areas. But these have wreaked far-reaching changes in the ecosystems in those areas. The rivers have become silted up and natural drainage conditions have been disrupted. The main objective was to practise agriculture in wetlands all year round, but the projected areas have become waterlogged and this is worsening day by day. The effect of climate change has made this situation more complex, with devastating results. Soil-less agriculture is an effective means of dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change, especially waterlogging. Soil-less agriculture is an ancient method of agriculture in Bangladesh. As an environmentally friendly farming system, it minimises the reduction in the quality of soil, the deterioration of the natural environment and water pollution; it also saves energy and helps with carbon sequestration. Its products are fully organic, containing high nutritional value, and can be produced in the off-season. The productivity of this farming system is 3–7 times higher in some cases than traditional land-based agricultural production. This paper will present the potential of a soil-less agriculture farming system as a tool for adapting to climate change, detailing its construction and production mechanisms, maintenance, advantages and disadvantages, and replication; a cost-benefit analysis will also be carried out and the target market segmentation will be examined. Some case studies will also be included to portray the efficiency of this disaster-resilient farming practice.

Papon Kumar Dev
Metadaten
Titel
Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management
herausgegeben von
Walter Leal Filho
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN
978-3-642-31110-9
Print ISBN
978-3-642-31109-3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31110-9