An Application of Optimization to the Problem of Climate Change

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology whereby reductions of greenhouse gas emissions can be allocated on a regional level with minimal deviation from the “business as usual emission scenario”. The methodology developed employs a two stage optimization process utilizing techniques of mathematical programming. The stage one process solves a world emission reduction problem producing an optimal emission reduction strategy for the world by maximizing an economic utility function. Stage two addresses a regional emission reduction allocation problem via the solution of an auxiliary optimization problem minimizing disruption from the above business as usual emission strategies. Our analysis demonstrates that optimal CO₂ emission reduction strategies are very sensitive to the targets placed on CO₂ concentrations, in every region of the world. It is hoped that the optimization analysis will help decision-makers narrow their debate to realistic environmental targets.