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Earth Science Informatics

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17.11.2021 | Research Article

An ensemble method to forecast 24-h ahead solar irradiance using wavelet decomposition and BiLSTM deep learning network

verfasst von: Pardeep Singla, Manoj Duhan, Sumit Saroha

Erschienen in: Earth Science Informatics | Ausgabe 1/2022

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Abstract

In recent years, the penetration of solar power at residential and utility levels has progressed exponentially. However, due to its stochastic nature, the prediction of solar global horizontal irradiance (GHI) with higher accuracy is a challenging task; but, vital for grid management: planning, scheduling & balancing. Therefore, this paper proposes an ensemble model using the extended scope of wavelet transform (WT) and bidirectional long short term memory (BiLSTM) deep learning network to forecast 24-h ahead solar GHI. The WT decomposes the input time series data into different finite intrinsic model functions (IMF) to extract the statistical features of input time series. Further, the study reduces the number of IMF series by combining the wavelet decomposed components (D1-D6) series on the basis of comprehensive experimental analysis with an aim to improve the forecasting accuracy. Next, the trained standalone BiLSTM networks are allocated to each IMF sub-series to execute the forecasting. Finally, the forecasted values of each sub-series from BiLSTM networks are reconstructed to deliver the final solar GHI forecast. The study performed monthly solar GHI forecasting for one year dataset using one month moving window mechanism for the location of Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. For the performance comparison, the naïve predictor as a benchmark model, standalone long short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), BiLSTM and two other wavelet-based BiLSTM models are also simulated. From the results, it is observed that the proposed model outperforms other models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) & mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R²) and forecast skill (FS). The proposed model reduces the monthly average RMSE by range from 26.04–58.89%, 5.17–31.35%, 23.26–56.06% & 21.08–57% in comparison with benchmark, standalone BiLSTM, GRU & LSTM networks respectively. On the other hand, the monthly average MAPE is reduced by range from 9 to 51.18%, 12.59–28.14%, 30.43–59.19% & 26.54–58.92% in comparison to benchmark, standalone BiLSTM, GRU & LSTM respectively. Further, the proposed model obtained the value of R² equal to 0.94 and forecast skill (%) of 47% with reference to the benchmark model.

Vorheriger Artikel Regional climate fluctuation analysis using convolutional neural networks

Nächster Artikel Reverting rupture processes based on fast synthesized 3D Green’s functions: application to the 2010 EI mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake

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Titel: An ensemble method to forecast 24-h ahead solar irradiance using wavelet decomposition and BiLSTM deep learning network
verfasst von: Pardeep Singla
Manoj Duhan
Sumit Saroha
Publikationsdatum: 17.11.2021
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: Earth Science Informatics / Ausgabe 1/2022
Print ISSN: 1865-0473
Elektronische ISSN: 1865-0481
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-021-00723-1

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