An Integrated Model of Transport and Urban Evolution

This paper offers some background thoughts on recent changes in China, seen from a spatial and transportation viewpoint. It calls attention to a great many uncertainties involved in depicting the future of the Chinese spatial economy and argues that scenario analysis is a meaningful research strategy for coping with an uncertain future. The paper then sets out to explain a systematic approach to scenario analysis and the design of future images. The paper concludes with a multicriteria analysis of various possible spatial development trajectories in China.

The city of Nanjing (the old capital of six dynasties of ancient southern China) is located about 300 km to the north-west of Shanghai at the Yangtse-River (31° north latitude, 118° east meridian). Nanjing City is an important traffic node, as it has the biggest river port in China that links Nanjing with the sea. Furthermore, in Nanjing there is located one of the few bridges that crosses the Yangtse River. Hence, it connects Xuzhou (and farther away Beijing) in the north and Zhengzhou in the north-west, Hefei (the capital of Anhui Province) in the west, and Wuxi, Suzhou and Shanghai in the east. Nanjing City is the capital of Jiangsu Province. It has about 2.61 million inhabitants and is therefore one of the biggest cities in China.

The impact of transport infrastructure on regional development has been difficult to verify empirically in Europe (Wegener in WP 7, EUROSIL, 1998). There seems to be a clear positive correlation between transport infrastructure endowment or the location in interregional networks and the levels of economic indicators such as GDP per capita (e.g. Biehl, 1986; 1991; Keeble et al. , 1982, 1988). However, this correlation may merely reflect historical agglomeration processes rather than causal relationships effective today (cf. Brocker and Peschel, 1988). Attempts to explain changes in economic indicators, i.e. economic growth and decline, by transport investment have been much less successful. The reason for this failure may be that in countries with an already highly developed transport infrastructure further transport network improvements bring only marginal benefits. The conclusion is that transport improvements have strong impacts on regional development only where they result in removing a bottleneck (Blum, 1982; Biehl, 1986; 1991). In China the situation is quite different. There is a growing need for an expansion of transport infrastructure on the urban level, the regional and national levels.

The statistical significance of the results of the project depends on the data base. Therefore, we draw our attention in the next section to the quality and quantity of data.

In the case of Nanjing any mathematical model must be adapted to the specific data situation of the configuration space. All parameters and variables of the model have to be specific to the sectors in which data exist in such a way that the model is able to describe the historical situation. With these results one obtains a calibration of the model for the period 1986 – 1996. Taking the calibrated model, forecast scenarios can thereupon be set up. In those sectors where no yearly data exist, one has to modify the model by making plausible assumptions.

The spatial sciences are still far away from a comprehensive theory of urban development.

This chapter gives an overview of the results of the analysis in the transportation and the urban/regional sector.

The present chapter describes three scenarios A, B and C. On the one hand we do not only want to simulate the traffic with respect to bikes, buses and pedestrians but also and above all the car traffic. On the other hand there are only rather limited data available concerning the cars. Under this data situation in subsection 10.1 a possibility of a simulation of the car traffic is worked out. This simulation is used in the basic scenario (scenario E) as well as in the three scenarios A, B and C which are described in detail in subsection 10.2. Subsection 10.3 gives an overview over the results of the simulations of scenarios A, B and C in comparison to the basic scenario E. The corresponding figures describing details of the scenarios are found in the appendix A4. In the text of the subsection 10.4 the references to the figures are given. Finally, in 10.5 the results of 10.4 are summarized and detailed conclusions are drawn which complement the more general conclusions and recommendations of chapter 11.

By the year 2000, more than half of the world’s population will live in cities. This means that not only an extensive exchange of population, goods and information in a globalised world within this system of cities can be expected but also that the transport of goods, population and information must be effectively managed. A city which wants to represent an important node in this network must provide beside appropriate economic, social and cultural conditions and political stability, qualified labour, and an urban as well as an internationally operating interurban system of transport. Moreover, all cities face a common problem: they must possess the capacity to sustain unprecedented numbers of citizens within limited budgets and severe environmental constraints.