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2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Analysis of Complex Natural Processes Activation with Catastrophic Consequences Using Bayesian Belief Network

verfasst von : Victoria N. Taran

Erschienen in: Futuristic Trends in Network and Communication Technologies

Verlag: Springer Singapore

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Abstract

The article presents an analysis of factors on which the activation of complex natural processes with catastrophic consequences depends. The model for forecasting catastrophic consequences of natural processes using the Bayesian belief network is proposed. The tops of the Bayesian network have been singled out, the expert estimation of possible values of indicators and training of the Bayesian network based on expert estimations has been carried out. The factor “Investments” was proposed as a managing influence on the network. Modeling and forecasting of possible development scenarios of complex natural processes and their catastrophic consequences were carried out. It is proposed to use Bayesian networks in building a decision support system for forecasting and assessment of risks of catastrophic consequences from damage caused by hazardous natural processes.

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Titel: Analysis of Complex Natural Processes Activation with Catastrophic Consequences Using Bayesian Belief Network
verfasst von: Victoria N. Taran
Verlag: Springer Singapore
Buch: Futuristic Trends in Network and Communication Technologies
Print ISBN: 978-981-16-1482-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-16-1483-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1483-5_30

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