Analyzing climate change and its effects on drought and water scarcity (case study: Ardabil, Northwestern Province of Iran, Iran)

Drought is a phenomenon that annually affects agriculture, tourism, and other areas. In recent years, a lot of research has been done on climate change and drought in various ways, but in relation to this phenomenon has not been done with appropriate methods. For this purpose, in this study, drought analysis and its prediction using the climate model of atmospheric circulation for years to come in Ardabil were dealt with. The data used in this study are precipitation, sunshine, minimum temperature and maximum temperature in monthly and daily intervals for the period of 29 years from 1990 to 2018. According to the findings of the present study, in Ardabil station, very severe drought on a 12-month scale has been repeated 5 times and severe drought has been repeated 12 times in the statistical period under study. But on a 3-month scale, very severe drought occurred 3 times while severe drought occurred 8 times. On a 12-month scale, it shows a higher drought index but is less pronounced in severe and very severe drought during the 3-months’ period. According to the HadCM3 atmospheric circulation model and scenario (A2), the precipitation parameter was more than observed in comparison with observations in March, January, and November, and in the other months, it has been decreasing. Maximum temperature: In this scenario, the climatic parameter of the maximum produced temperature has increased in all the months relative to observation data, and in the winter months (December, January, and February) it does not show a significant change for the next 40 years. It is worth noting that the sunshine parameter does not reveal a satisfactory answer with positive accuracy.