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2015 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Application of a Numerical Statistical Model to Estimate Potential Oil Spill Risk

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Abstract

Both deterministic and probabilistic strategies are employed in numerical oil spill model to estimate potential oil spill risk. The deterministic model simulates transport and weathering processes by means of a particle tracking method. While a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation approach is run for multiple scenarios, spill size, oil type, and environmental conditions (meteorological and hydrological data) combinations, to characterize the consequences of spills for a specified potential spill location. The statistically-defined oil spill map does not demonstrate the probabilities of oil-slick presence for each grid area, but also provide the information of the shortest arrival time which is quite vital for oil contingency plan.

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Metadaten
Titel
Application of a Numerical Statistical Model to Estimate Potential Oil Spill Risk
verfasst von
Weijun Guo
Tiaojian Xu
Copyright-Jahr
2015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16459-5_6

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