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Empirical Economics

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03.07.2023

Assessing progress in decoupling transport CO₂ emissions from GDP growth since 1970

verfasst von: Steven Parker

Erschienen in: Empirical Economics | Ausgabe 1/2024

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Abstract

Decarbonization of economies is seen as a high priority for many countries to reduce the impact of climate change. As such, policy makers need robust and reliable decoupling indicators to assess decarbonization progress. This paper utilizes a regression-based approach to estimate decoupling indicators and identify decoupling states in the transport sector. The proposed method is easy to use, data driven, providing robust and reliable estimates of decoupling elasticities and fits within existing policy frameworks. Analyzing the transport sector for 59 countries from across the world beginning 1970, only 16 are weakly decoupling. Most of these have been identified as being part of a group with sustained economy-wide CO₂ reductions. Stronger and localized green transport policy action is needed to meet emissions targets for most countries.

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When we refer to the decoupling elasticity or elasticity henceforth, we refer to the GDP elasticity of _CO2 (decarbonization). Tapio also used other elasticities in his framework which relate to dematerialization (underlying activity to CO₂ emissions) and immaterialization (underlying activity to GDP) (Tapio et al. 2007).

Economists may note that the type of change point regression we use corresponds to structural break time series modelling. Occasionally we refer to either change point or structural change, but they mean the same thing in the context of this paper.

Many of the non-OECD papers listed take this approach.

Loo and Banister (2016) provide an alternative framework to assess transport decoupling using elasticities and intensities of a negative externality. They also provide a framework to interpret the results (see their Table 1).

Five-year blocks to 2015, then a three-year block. The elasticity is computed as the ratio of the percentage changes in negative externality to percentage changes in national income (GNI).

See Table 1 next section for a description of the states in the Tapio framework.

Unfortunately, individual country breakdown over time was not provided.

The province was the decision-making unit.

As far as the author can tell.

Tapio (2005) used 10-year periods in his presentation.

Tapio (2005) slightly modified the framework provided in Vehmas et al. (2003).

Calculations were done in the R software environment with the package ‘regsc’ written by Qian and Su.

Inference can proceed for each regime assuming the breaks are correctly estimated, see Theorem 3.6 in Qian and Su (2016).

All changes in GDP were positive for each period, while the same was the case for _CO2 emissions except for the second periods for Germany and Switzerland.

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Titel: Assessing progress in decoupling transport CO2 emissions from GDP growth since 1970
verfasst von: Steven Parker
Publikationsdatum: 03.07.2023
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: Empirical Economics / Ausgabe 1/2024
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02459-x

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