Assessing sustainability when data availability limits real-time estimates: using near-time indicators to extend sustainability metrics

The goal of this paper is to highlight the problem of time lags in data releases that are necessary for calculating sustainability metrics and its effect on making informed management decisions. We produced a methodology to assess whether a regional system is on a sustainable path and tested it in south-central Colorado. We identified key components of the system and selected four sustainability metrics that measure those components. Metrics included: (1) ecological footprint (i.e., environmental burden), (2) green net regional product (GNRP) (i.e., economic well-being), (3) emergy (i.e., energy flows), and (4) Fisher information (i.e., dynamic order). Having calculated these metrics, we identified future research recommendations and limitations. One limitation was the delay between when an event occurred and when data on the event were released. Given, the recent push in government agencies for calculating sustainability metrics, finding solutions for the time lag will be important. To address this limitation, we explore the potential of using both sustainability metrics and indicators that are available near-time to provide decision makers with better decision support. For the pilot study in Colorado, the metric calculations were 3 years behind present. Using near-time indicators that are publicly available before the metrics can be calculated might help to predict the path of the metric. As an example, we examine if specific near-time indicators are correlated with ecological balance (a component of ecological footprint) and GNRP. We use Spearman rank correlations and scatter plots to identify the relationship of the metrics and near-time indicators in an exploratory analysis. We offer research recommendations to consider.