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2014 | Buch

Bayesian Essentials with R

verfasst von: Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert

Verlag: Springer New York

Buchreihe : Springer Texts in Statistics

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Über dieses Buch

This Bayesian modeling book provides a self-contained entry to computational Bayesian statistics. Focusing on the most standard statistical models and backed up by real datasets and an all-inclusive R (CRAN) package called bayess, the book provides an operational methodology for conducting Bayesian inference, rather than focusing on its theoretical and philosophical justifications. Readers are empowered to participate in the real-life data analysis situations depicted here from the beginning. The stakes are high and the reader determines the outcome. Special attention is paid to the derivation of prior distributions in each case and specific reference solutions are given for each of the models. Similarly, computational details are worked out to lead the reader towards an effective programming of the methods given in the book. In particular, all R codes are discussed with enough detail to make them readily understandable and expandable. This works in conjunction with the bayess package.

Bayesian Essentials with R can be used as a textbook at both undergraduate and graduate levels, as exemplified by courses given at Université Paris Dauphine (France), University of Canterbury (New Zealand), and University of British Columbia (Canada). It is particularly useful with students in professional degree programs and scientists to analyze data the Bayesian way. The text will also enhance introductory courses on Bayesian statistics. Prerequisites for the book are an undergraduate background in probability and statistics, if not in Bayesian statistics. A strength of the text is the noteworthy emphasis on the role of models in statistical analysis.

This is the new, fully-revised edition to the book Bayesian Core: A Practical Approach to Computational Bayesian Statistics.

Jean-Michel Marin is Professor of Statistics at Université Montpellier 2, France, and Head of the Mathematics and Modelling research unit. He has written over 40 papers on Bayesian methodology and computing, as well as worked closely with population geneticists over the past ten years.

Christian Robert is Professor of Statistics at Université Paris-Dauphine, France. He has written over 150 papers on Bayesian Statistics and computational methods and is the author or co-author of seven books on those topics, including The Bayesian Choice (Springer, 2001), winner of the ISBA DeGroot Prize in 2004. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Society. He has been co-editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, and in the editorial boards of the Journal of the American Statistical Society, the Annals of Statistics, Statistical Science, and Bayesian Analysis. He is also a recipient of an Erskine Fellowship from the University of Canterbury (NZ) in 2006 and a senior member of the Institut Universitaire de France (2010-2015).

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
1. User’s Manual
Abstract
The Roadmap is a section that will start each chapter by providing a commented table of contents. It also usually contains indications on the purpose of the chapter.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
2. Normal Models
Abstract
This chapter uses the standard normal \(\mathcal{N}(\mu,{\sigma }^{2})\) distribution as an easy entry to generic Bayesian inferential methods. As in every subsequent chapter, we start with a description of the data used as a chapter benchmark for illustrating new methods and for testing assimilation of the techniques. We then propose a corresponding statistical model centered on the normal distribution and consider specific inferential questions to address at this level, namely parameter estimation, model choice, and outlier detection, once set the description of the Bayesian resolution of inferential problems. As befits a first chapter, we also introduce here general computational techniques known as Monte Carlo methods.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
3. Regression and Variable Selection
Abstract
Linear regression is one of the most widely used tools in statistics for analyzing the (linear) influence of some variables or some factors on others and thus to uncover explanatory and predictive patterns. This chapter details the Bayesian analysis of the linear (or regression) model both in terms of prior specification (Zellner’s G -prior) and in terms of variable selection, the next chapter appearing as a sequel for nonlinear dependence structures. The reader should be warned that, given that these models are the only conditional models where explicit computation can be conducted, this chapter contains a fair amount of matrix calculus. The photograph at the top of this page is a picture of processionary caterpillars, in connection (for once!) with the benchmark dataset used in this chapter.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
4. Generalized Linear Models
Abstract
Generalized linear models are extensions of the linear regression model described in the previous chapter. In particular, they avoid the selection of a single transformation of the data that must achieve the possibly conflicting goals of normality and linearity imposed by the linear regression model, which is for instance impossible for binary or count responses. The trick that allows both a feasible processing and an extension of linear regression is first to turn the covariates into a real number by a linear projection and then to transform this value so that it fits the support of the response. We focus here on the Bayesian analysis of probit and logit models for binary data and of log-linear models for contingency tables.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
5. Capture–Recapture Experiments
Abstract
This chapter deals with a very special case of survey models. Surveys are used in many settings to evaluate some features of a given population, including its main characteristic, the size of the population. In the case of capture–recapture surveys, individuals are observed and identified either once or several times and the repeated observations can be used to draw inference on the population size and its dynamic characteristics.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
6. Mixture Models
Abstract
This chapter covers a class of models where a rather simple distribution is made more complex and less informative by a mechanism that mixes together several known or unknown distributions. This representation is naturally called a mixture of distributions, as illustrated above. Inference about the parameters of the elements of the mixtures and the weights is called mixture estimation, while recovery of the original distribution of each observation is called classification (or, more exactly, unsupervised classification to distinguish it from the supervised classification to be discussed in Chap. 8).
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
7. Time Series
Abstract
At one point or another, everyone has to face modeling time series datasets, by which we mean series of dependent observations that are indexed by time (like both series in the picture above!). As in the previous chapters, the difficulty in modeling such datasets is to balance the complexity of the representation of the dependence structure against the estimation of the corresponding model—and thus the modeling most often involves model choice or model comparison. We cover here the Bayesian processing of some of the most standard time series models, namely the autoregressive and moving average models, as well as extensions that are more complex to handle like stochastic volatility models used in finance.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
8. Image Analysis
Abstract
This final chapter covers the analysis of pixelized images through Markov random field models, towards pattern detection and image correction. We start with the statistical analysis of Markov random fields, which are extensions of Markov chains to the spatial domain, as they are instrumental in this chapter. This is also the perfect opportunity to cover the ABC method, as these models do not allow for a closed form likelihood. Image analysis has been a very active area for both Bayesian statistics and computational methods in the past 30 years, so we feel it well deserves a chapter of its own for its specific features.
Jean-Michel Marin, Christian P. Robert
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Bayesian Essentials with R
verfasst von
Jean-Michel Marin
Christian P. Robert
Copyright-Jahr
2014
Verlag
Springer New York
Electronic ISBN
978-1-4614-8687-9
Print ISBN
978-1-4614-8686-2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8687-9

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