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2010 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Behavioral Economists, and Psychologists’ Challenges to Rational Behavior

verfasst von : Prof. Richard B. McKenzie

Erschienen in: Predictably Rational?

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

Behavioral economics has emerged as a subdiscipline in economics over the last half of the twentieth century because of the work of scholars whose main contributions were outside the strict boundaries of economics, most prominently Herbert Simon and Daniel Kahneman. Simon won the 1978 Nobel prize in economics for his work on “bounded rationality” applied to firm organization, collected in his three-volume set published in 1982, and Kahneman received the 2002 Nobel prize in economics, for his work on “prospect theory” developed largely in collaboration with the late Amos Tversky (Kahneman and Tversky 1979, 2000a, among a host of citations). Behavioral economics now covers a massive scholarly literature and, more recently, a growing list of widely read trade books on the subject. In this chapter, I seek to cover only a portion of the literature, but enough to establish credibility of the formidable challenge that behavioral economics and behavioral psychology present to conventional, neoclassical economics. Mainly, reservations and criticisms regarding this literature are covered in Chap. 10.

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Fußnoten
1
In passing, it needs to be noted that Becker’s demonstration that downward sloping demand curves could be obtained from people acting randomly was a matter of intense debate between Becker and Austrian economists Israel Kirzner in the early 1960s, with Kirzner stressing that an assumption of random behavior on the part of economic actors was missing a major part of the process underlying rational behavior, which is that people are expected to revise in systematic ways their plans when confronted with new information as they interact with others who are continually revising their plans to new information. See Becker (1962; 1963) and Kirzner (1962; 1963).
 
2
Although the thrust of my critique of the behavioral literature will be deferred until Chap. 10, I need to note a minor point here: In his report on his surveys Ariely does not report whether the two sets of prices were offered the same group or totally different groups of students and whether the number of customers was greater when the two prices were lowered, with the possibility that the greater percentage emerged largely from additional students taking the Kisses, not buyers switching from the truffle to the Kiss.
 
3
Behavioral economists Jones and Cullis (2000, p. 82) observe, “Increasingly, evidence suggests that ‘homo-economicus rationality’ fails to describe adequately the behavior of individuals. To rely on such behavioral assumptions when evaluating social policy options may prove misleading.” Nevertheless, as behavioral economist Thaler (1994, p. xvi) has noted, “No matter how strange a particular action might seem to be, some economist can usually construct a rational explanation.”
 
4
Tversky and Kahneman summarize their view of prospect theory:
“Prospect theory departs from the tradition that assumes the rationality of economic agents; it is proposed as a descriptive, not a normative, theory. The idealized assumption of rationality in economic theory is commonly justified on two grounds: the conviction that only rational behavior can survive in a competitive environment, and the fear that any treatment that abandons rationality will be chaotic and intractable. Both arguments are questionable. First, the evidence indicates that people can spend a lifetime in a competitive environment without acquiring a general ability to avoid framing effects or to apply linear decision weights. Second, and perhaps more important, the evidence indicates that human choices are orderly, although not always rational in the traditional sense of this word” (Tversky and Kahneman 2000, p. 65).
 
5
According to Kahneman and Tversky, “Prospect theory distinguishes two phases in the choice process: an early phase of editing and a subsequent phase of evaluation. The editing phase consists of preliminary analysis of the offered prospects, which often yield a simpler representation of these prospects. In the second phase, the edited prospects are evaluated [with a subject weight applied to each choice option] and the highest value is chosen” (Kahneman and Tversky 2000b, p. 28, reprinted from Kahneman and Tversky 1979).
 
6
When sixty-six subjects were given a choice between $6,000 with a probability of 0.45 and $3,000 with a probability of 0.90, 86 percent of the subjects took the second option, even though both options have the same expected value. However, when (presumably) same sixty-six subjects were given a choice between an option of $6,000 with a probability of 0.001 and $3,000 with a probability of 0.002, with the expected values of both being the same, 73 percent took the $6,000 option – showing, according to Kahneman and Tversky that the option taken depends not just on the expected value but added weighting of the discount rate and/or the size of the payoff (Kahneman and Tversky 2000b, p. 21–22).
 
7
Risk aversion occurs when people choose a sure-thing gain that is of lower monetary value than a gamble involving gains. Risk seeking is when people turn down a sure thing in favor of a gamble with a lower expected value. Again, risk seeking is observed when losses are at stake.
 
8
For a review of various explanations for queues, see McKenzie (2008).
 
9
For an array of behavioral finance studies, see Thaler (1993 and 2005).
 
10
U.S. Census Bureau historical data accessed December 22, 2008 from http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/index.html.
 
11
See reports in The New York Times (Norris and Bajaj 2008), the Los Angeles Times (Vikas 2008), and The Wall Street Journal (Mollenkamp et al. 2008).
 
12
A distinguished advocate of massive federal stimulus packages (even greater than the stimulus package proposed by President Barack Obama) that would have a multiplied effect in the neighborhood of 1.5 was Nobel laureate and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman who insisted that the country, and world, had fallen into Keynesian “liquidity trap,” reminiscent of Keynes’ analysis of conditions of the 1930s (2008 and 2009).
 
13
For accounts of the unfolding policy events in late 2008, see Lewis (2008), Gosselin and Reynolds (2008), Andrews (2008), Herszenhorn et al. (2008), Solomon and Paletta (2008), Hitt et al. (2008), Anderson et al. (2008), Hitt and Solomon (2008), Herszenhorn (2008a,b), Simon and Gaouette (2008).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Behavioral Economists, and Psychologists’ Challenges to Rational Behavior
verfasst von
Prof. Richard B. McKenzie
Copyright-Jahr
2010
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01586-1_6

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