5. Biodiversity Sector: Risks of Temperature Increase to Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Climate change poses risks to biodiversity and to the socioecological systems dependent on it in Brazil. However, the country’s natural wealth, its biodiversity and ecosystems, are simultaneously among the main source of alternatives for mitigation and adaptation. This review shows that increase in temperature of >2^oC, towards the end of this century, will have severe impacts upon biodiversity in Brazil. Impacts include high rates of species extinction, geographic dislocation of species (particularly towards the south), savannization of forests and impoverishment of savanna and other open vegetation, significant reductions in the number of days of growth per year for tropical forest species, and impacts on agriculture due to decline in populations of important pollinators. Most Brazilian biomes are particularly sensitive to climate change and ecosystem such as those at high-altitude, coastal and marine, and urban areas are largely vulnerable. Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change emerges as a key option for Brazil to reduce societal vulnerability. Science and policy related to biodiversity conservation and ecological restoration will need to incorporate climate change background on prioritisation efforts and implementation. The main conclusion of this review is that bringing biodiversity and ecosystems to the centre of the development process of Brazil, rather than treating them as an obstacle to development, will be a strategic step both to fight climate change and to promote a sustainable and inclusive development.