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2022 | Buch

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Brazil - Emerging Forever?

A Case Study of the Mid-Level Development Trap

verfasst von: Dr. Victor Krasilshchikov

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Societies and Political Orders in Transition

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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Über dieses Buch

This book discusses the social and economic problems currently faced by Brazil as one of the largest “emerging countries”. It examines the prospects of Brazilian development from an interdisciplinary perspective, and studies both socio-economic and political variables.
The book embraces the large period of Brazil's development in the 20th and the first decades of the 21st Century. The peculiar attention is drawn to the short period of prosperity under the left-centrist governments as a continuation of the previous conservative modernisation model, which produced an increased dependency on China and a premature deindustrialisation of the economy. Assessing Brazilian statistics on households’ incomes and consumption, the book subsequently discusses the lack of strong social actors as the main problem in today’s Brazil. In closing, it examines probable scenarios for the country’s development and compares the situation to other “emerging countries”, including the Asian giants, China and India.
The book addresses the needs of researchers in the fields of political science, economics and sociology who are seeking a better understanding of emerging countries, and the Brazilian case in particular.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction: Why Brazil?

Abstract

The introduction explains why the author has chosen Brazil as the subject of his studies. In the author’s opinion, Brazil distils within itself all the main features of the contemporary world: it combines the main elements of advanced societies and also the least developed ones, so therefore an analysis of Brazilian development trends helps to comprehend many processes evolving in various other countries. In the introduction the author mentions the most important problems considered in the book: a lack of social actors in new development, the conservative character of Brazilian modernisations and the insignificance of the seemingly positive changes that took place under the Left-centrist governments. Finally, as with any introduction, it also describes the content of each chapter of the book.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 2. The ‘Multi-Polar World’, BRICS and the Coming Chinese Hegemony: Prognoses and Daydreams

Abstract

The chapter observes various prognoses about the Great Divergence of the East and West, as well as the concept of the BRICS countries. It refers to historical reminiscences concerning the past superiority of China to Western countries. That superiority hid the principal differences between the East and West in productive forces. The author presupposes that the apparent dynamism of some emerging countries, primarily China, hides the difference between the advanced Western countries and the so-called emerging powers, in the character of their productive forces again: the post-industrial, knowledge-based economies in the West and the industrial productive forces in emerging countries. Meanwhile, this difference is the main obstacle to the attempts of China and other emerging countries to become the new economic centre of the world.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 3. Thunderclouds Over the Emerging Countries and the Middle-Income Trap

Abstract

The chapter discusses the shortcomings and vulnerabilities of non-Western countries’ success stories over the last years. According to the author, the development of knowledge-based economies in emerging countries, including China, is under question today due to various socioeconomic and socio-cultural reasons. The author points to ‘the great advice’ of Alexander Gerschenkron—to study unsuccessful modernisations—and asserts that Brazil gives us a good example of such a case. The chapter places emphasis on the Brazilianisation of China and the West. The middle-income trap concept and its interpretations are also scrutinised. Such consideration allows approaching Brazil from the point of view of the middle-income trap problem, taking into account the significance of social actors who are capable of finding an escape from the aforementioned trap.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 4. The Rise to Modernity via Conservative Modernisation

Abstract

As the author shows, the specific features of conservative modernisation in Brazil were rooted in plantation slavery. This circumstance predetermined the elitist character of Brazilian modernisation, which was oriented towards encouraging prestigious consumption for privileged groups.

A big part of the chapter is devoted to the period of import substitution industrialisation which is treated as continuation of conservative modernisation, with a set of compromises between the new rising urban classes and old oligarchy.

In addition, the chapter demonstrates that such trends, such as the premature deindustrialisation and financialisation of the Brazilian economy, have their sources in the economic ‘miracle’ of 1967–1974, that took place under the aegis of the authoritarian regime of 1964–1985.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 5. The New Model of Development or Conservative Modernisation in the Left-Centrist Arrangements (1995–2015)?

Abstract

The author considers the implementation of the Real Plan that suppressed destructive inflation and was aimed at the integration of the country into the process of globalisation. It is important that the policies of the governments of F.H. Cardoso, L.I. Lula da Silva and D. Rousseff are scrutinised together, with the focus on the continuity rather than the differences between them. Both political tracks combined a neoliberal financial-economic policy with a social-democratic approach to social problems. The main achievements of this policy, the evident reduction of poverty and decrease of income inequality, as well as the diminution of the interregional disparities, are also considered in the chapter. However, reality was much harder than initial expectations for change, the obvious achievements in social policy notwithstanding.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 6. The Costs of Success and Return to the Past

Abstract

Explaining the differences between mature and premature deindustrialisation, the author draws attention to the costs of the social policy of the Left-centrist governments: the premature deindustrialisation and the return of Brazil to the position of a primary goods’ supplier, vulnerable to market fluctuations.

The chapter underlines that the reorientation of Brazil’s economic ties to China succeeded in making Brazil dependent on Chinese demand for primary goods. It slowed down the pace of agrarian reform under the Lula presidency, due to compromises with agribusiness: the main beneficiary of the commodities exports, for the sake of financing social programmes.

The attempts to somewhat initiate an industrial policy are scrutinised in the chapter too. However, as the author demonstrates, these attempts did not succeed in expected outcomes.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 7. How Did the Incomes of Brazilians Change Under the Left Government?

Abstract

Krasilshchikov critically evaluates the social policy achievements under the Left-centrist governments, using Brazilian household statistics. These achievements have been moderate; they consisted mainly of an eradication of extreme poverty, the transformation of the very poor into ‘ordinary poor’. The author supports this assertion through tables composed of household income and expenditure. He concludes that the positive social changes (reduction of poverty, decrease of income inequality, etc.) have been insufficient to give rise to a ‘crucial mass’ of labourers capable of becoming the actors of ‘new development’ or stimulating, by their wages, entrepreneurs to create innovations. In addition, as noted in the chapter, mass education in Brazil is of a poor quality, the efforts of the Left-centrist governments to change this situation notwithstanding.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 8. Brazilian Society as the Obstacle to Self-Modification

Abstract

The author observes the debates among Brazilian sociologists around the growth of a new middle class in Brazil. In reality, it was the growth of a new working class employed mostly in the service sector with low wages and precarious employment.

The author explains why the conservative financial-economic policy of the former Left-centrist governments corresponded to the interests of poor social groups that made up the mass base of those governments. In this connection, the phenomenon of coincidence between conservatisms of the poor and rich is the focus of the chapter.

Finally, Krasilshchikov scrutinises the problem of effectiveness in social expenditure. He underlines that the old approaches to this issue should be reconsidered according to the role of households in formation of human capital.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Chapter 9. Concluding Remarks: Some Prospects for Brazil and Other Emerging Countries or the Myth of Emergence?

Abstract

Krasilshchikov presents his concluding remarks as a set of questions concerning the future prospects of Brazil and other emerging countries in the light of their current problems. In particular, what are the opportunities for Brazil to abandon the current path of conservative modernisation? Will it occur as a result of the external shock, like in the 1930s? Will Brazil be able to leverage USA-China controversies for useful development? As the author argues, the answers to these questions will depend, to a large extent, on the attitudes of the country’s elite and the activity of opposition mass movements. At the same time, the case of Brazil dispels the naïve belief in the ‘bright future’ of emerging countries and shows such sentiments to be wishful thinking.

Victor Krasilshchikov

Titel: Brazil - Emerging Forever?
verfasst von: Dr. Victor Krasilshchikov
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-50208-9
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-50207-2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50208-9