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2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Brexit and Trade

verfasst von : Philip B. Whyman, Alina Ileana. Petrescu

Erschienen in: The Economics of Brexit

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The impact of Brexit upon trade has been the primary concern for most economists since the lowering of trade barriers and resulting reductions in trade costs are viewed as overwhelmingly positive. The economic theory relating to trade integration and growth is considered, before noting the results of those studies which have sought to estimate the impact of EU membership over time. One conclusion drawn from the evaluation of the evidence is that trade integration would appear to have positive economic results, but that the UK has had a much lower rate of benefit than other EU member states, perhaps due to the fact that most of its exports are destined for other parts of the globe and hence it is less tightly integrated into the European market. Potential effects arising from the re-imposition of tariff and non-tariff barriers are examined, noting that different sectors are likely to experience quite different effects. Finally, the conclusions reached by a range of studies into the possible trade effects of different variants of Brexit are examined and broad conclusions reached.

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Vorheriges Kapitel The Fiscal Impact of Brexit

Nächstes Kapitel Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) After Brexit

Rotterdam’s position as a major shipping hub complicates data because UK exports destined for India may first be shipped to Rotterdam and is recorded as trade with the Netherlands rather than the ultimate destination, whilst oil imports from the Middle East may be similarly shipped via Rotterdam and be recorded as an EU import. The degree of distortion is uncertain; however, the ONS adopts what it terms as a “realistic assumption” that half of all UK trade with the Netherlands masks non-EU origination (for imports) or destination (for exports) (Webb et al. 2015: 7–8).

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This topic is explored in more detail in Chap. 7.

It perhaps should be noted that this same study estimated that the expansion in trade ascribed to other FTAs enacted in more recent times was in the region of 64.5%, whilst the EEA produced a lesser but still creditable 52.5% boost to trade. Placed in this relative context, the study suggests that EU membership produced a slightly larger expansion in trade than FTA alternatives, but interestingly, that FTAs would appear to boost trade more than the closest form of economic integration with the EU outside full membership, namely joining the EEA.

When countries join the WTO, they make certain commitments as to the maximum tariff they will charge for each commodity line. These are then described as final bound tariffs. If the country charges tariffs above this level, they can be taken to WTO dispute settlement. Tariffs can be set below this level as long as this is non-discriminatory, unless via a PTA (such as an FTA or customs union). For the UK, the MFN tariff rates will be the most relevant figure to consider.

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Titel: Brexit and Trade
verfasst von: Philip B. Whyman
Alina Ileana. Petrescu
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: The Economics of Brexit
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-55947-2

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-55948-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55948-9_3

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