16. Budget Uncertainty and the Quality of Nonprofit Charter School Enrollment Projections

Rarely can outsiders assess the accuracy of business planning efforts by nonprofit organizations. We examine the relationship between nonprofit charter school characteristics and the accuracy of enrollment projections, which are the primary driver of organizational revenues and costs. Overall, we find that while the average charter school organization’s enrollment projection is quite accurate, there is wide variation in the quality of forecasts. School and organizational factors are especially prominent determinants of projection quality, with larger and older organizations less likely to make and present overly optimistic enrollment projections. Governance structure, including the presence of a charter management organization and different authorizer types, also matter for the quality of projections. As with all plans, the ability of charter schools to accurately project enrollments worsens dramatically in the later years of extended forecasts.