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2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Can the Paris Agreement Support Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals?

verfasst von : Lorenza Campagnolo, Enrica De Cian

Erschienen in: Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policy

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter provides an ex-ante, quantitative assessment of the synergies and trade-offs between the implementation of the Paris Agreement and sustainable development. It develops a framework for comparing historical and future sustainability performance that combines a Computable General Equilibrium model for describing future global and regional baseline and policy scenarios to 2030 with empirically-estimated relationships between macroeconomic variables and sustainability indicators. Results indicate that the commitments submitted within the Paris Agreement reduce the gap toward a sustainable 2030 in all regions, but heterogeneity across regions and sustainability indicators call for complementary sustainable development polices.

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Fußnoten
1
SDG5 on gender inequality is not explored.
 
2
The Palma Ratio is defined as the ratio of the top 10% of population’s share of Gross National Income (GNI), divided by the poorest 40% of the population’s share of GNI (Cobham et al. 2016).
 
3
Our future sustainability scenarios are built under the assumption that the estimated relationships will hold also into the future up to 2030.
 
4
A more detailed description of this step and a table with benchmarks can be found in Annex I.
 
5
A more detailed description of this step can be found in Annex I.
 
6
It is worth remembering that the score in each SDG and in the ASDI index is restricted to the 27 selected indicators and not to all other dimensions encompassed by the UN Agenda 2030.
 
7
SDG13 summarises three indicators: the concentration of emissions from agriculture, forestry and land sue (AFOLU), the distance from achieving NDC emissions, and the gap from equitable and sustainable GHG emissions per capita. In spite of being closer to sustainable and equitable emissions per capita than Rest of Europe and Pacific, the EU28 is characterised by a higher AFOLU emission concentration and results farther from achieving its NDC due to a more ambitious target.
 
8
Asia’s score in SDG7 depends on a cleaner energy system (lower growth of primary energy intensity and higher renewable electricity share), but also on the expansion of access to electricity.
 
9
Egypt and Bolivia do not have a quantitative NDC, therefore, we assume the two countries are not implementing any mitigation policy.
 
10
LACA region is fully sustainable in this dimension (score 100) also in the baseline scenario, therefore, an improvement of this indicator does not translate into a higher score.
 
11
Ibidem.
 
12
ICES model further specifies renewable energy sources in electricity production, namely wind, solar and hydro-electricity, splitting them from the original electricity sector. The data collection refers to physical energy production in Mtoe (Million tons of oil equivalent) from different energy vectors and for each GTAP 8 country/region. The data source is Extended Energy Balances (both OECD and Non-OECD countries) provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA). We complemented the production in physical terms with price information (OECD-IEA 2005; Ragwitz et al. 2006; GTZ 2009, IEA country profiles and REN21).
 
13
Hanoch’s constant difference elasticity (CDE) demand system (Hanoch 1975) has the following formulation: \(1=\sum B_{i}U^{Y_{i}R_{i}}(\frac {P_{i}}{X})^{Y_{i}} \) where U denotes utility, Pi the price of commodity i, X the expenditure, Bi are distributional parameters, Yi substitution parameters, and Ri expansion parameters. The CDE in principle does not allow to define explicitly direct utility, expenditure, or indirect utility functions. Accordingly, also explicit demand equations could not be defined. Fortunately, in a linearized equation system such as that used in GTAP, it is possible to obtain a demand function with price and expenditure elasticities.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Can the Paris Agreement Support Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals?
verfasst von
Lorenza Campagnolo
Enrica De Cian
Copyright-Jahr
2020
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30978-7_2

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