Characteristic analyses, simulations and predictions of land use in poor mountainous cities: a case study in the central area of Chengde County, China

Mountainous areas account for approximately 69% of the land area in China, and these areas are prone to poverty. Thus, analyzing the land use characteristics and conducting simulations and prediction studies of poor cities in mountainous areas are important research topics. The land use change processes and characteristics in Chengde County, Hebei Province, China were analyzed in this paper based on the spatial distributions and temporal changes of land use types. Fourteen driving factors and five land use types were used in performing binary logistic regression analysis. The dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model was used to simulate the land use distributions, which were further simulated under three scenarios in 2021: natural growth, ecological conservation and accelerated development. The results show that the ecological conservation scenario optimized the land use distribution and effectively protected the environment, thereby increasing the suitability of future development. Based on the research results, this paper concludes that the correct development directions in the future should include preparing accurate and effective policies, promoting industrial structure reform, driving economic transformations and improvements, and improving the land use efficiency. The experimental results provide significant technical support for preparing and revising land use plans in poor mountainous cities.