Climate-altered Precipitation is more Important than Land Use when Modeling Ecosystem Services Associated with Surficial Processes

Ecosystem services (ESs) associated with surficial processes may change according to shifts in land use, land cover, and climate parameters. Estimating these shifts can be important for land development planning, as urbanization alters soil processes that can manifest legacy effects. We employed the InVEST suite of models for sediment retention, nutrient delivery, and carbon storage to postulate how these ESs will change in the Upstate of South Carolina under future precipitation and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios. We used the average precipitation from 1981–2010 and WorldClim precipitation projections for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 to embody climatic precipitation shifts. For our LULC scenarios, we used 2011 and 2016 NLCD landscapes, then projected future LULC to hypothesize four future scenarios. We found that for the ES models that included both precipitation and LULC as inputs, precipitation dictated ES delivery far more heavily than land use or land cover. LULC scenarios produced consistent changes in ES delivery for all models except sediment export. Phosphorus and sediment exports increased between 2011 and 2016 due to LULC change, while nitrogen export stayed the same and carbon storage decreased. Land development that prioritizes forest cover will cause the least change in ESs, but allowing for continued forest loss to low-density development will have the most intense implications for ESs. Prioritization of land uses that preserve ESs associated with surficial processes will be critical to the longevity of agriculture and ecosystem integrity in this rapidly developing region. Land development planners should integrate consideration of ESs associated with surficial processes into future regional planning.