5. Climate Change and Forest Values

Interactions between changes in biophysical environments (climate, disturbance, and ecological function) and human responses to those changes (management and policy) will determine the effects of climate change on human communities. Effects of climate change on forests could result in a ripple effect of policy and economic response on economic sectors and human communities. The United States produces more timber than any other nation, and although timber volume nearly doubled between 1945 and the late 1980s, production since then has declined. Per capita consumption of wood products has declined since the late 1980s, but population growth has continued to increase consumption to 0.57 billion m³ in the 2000s. Increased production will be concentrated on a smaller land base with a projected net loss of 9.3 million ha of forest land in the United States over the next 50 years, mostly on private lands subject to urbanization. In natural resource-based communities, socioeconomic relationships based on commodities (e.g., timber) or amenities (e.g., recreation) will be disproportionately affected by climate-forest interactions. Anticipated climate changes, coupled with population growth, strongly increase the value of urban trees in providing ecosystem services and for mitigating climate change impacts at fine scales. Policies targeting climate mitigation directly influence forest extent and use, and responses may include more harvesting (a result of new product markets such as biofuels) and altered forest management (responding to demands for forest-based C storage). Preparation for future climate stresses in rural, urban, and wildland-urban interface communities will be enhanced by ensuring that present-day communities have diverse economies and are capable of adapting to change.