nach oben

Erschienen in:

2024 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

5. Climate Change Impact Analysis

verfasst von : Vijay P. Singh, Rajendra Singh, Pranesh Kumar Paul, Deepak Singh Bisht, Srishti Gaur

Erschienen in: Hydrological Processes Modelling and Data Analysis

Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

The pursuit of creating a developed world with high living standards has led to numerous human activities that have resulted in climate change. Despite improvements in living standards, the repercussions of climate change have threatened the world's sustainability. One significant impact is on water resources, as climate change alters water dynamics and distribution across space and time. Many organisations have developed state-of-the-art climate models to understand climate change better, and collective efforts are being made to improve our understanding of various Earth processes to refine existing models. With advancements in scientific understanding and computational power, new developments are being made in climate modelling and climate change studies. These include designing mechanisms for future trajectories in a warming world and regularly supplementing them with new information. The efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), from their First Assessment Report (FAR) to their most recent Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are evidence of this scientific development. Understanding climate change and climate data handling is now a prerequisite for researchers in water resources. This chapter provides an overview of various concepts related to climate change, climate models, climate data downscaling, and the state and fate of water resources in the changing climate.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Driven Data Analysis

Nächstes Kapitel Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change Analysis

Aloysius NR, Sheffield J, Saiers JE, Li H, Wood EF (2016) Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:130–152. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023656CrossRef

Bhambri R, Sain K, Chand P, Srivastava D, Tiwari SK, Yadav JS (2023) Frontal Changes of Gangotri Glacier, Garhwal Himalaya, between 1935 and 2022. J Geol Soc India 99:169–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/S12594-023-2283-3/METRICSCrossRef

Bisht DS, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS, Sridhar V (2018) Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins. Theor Appl Climatol 132:419–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2095-8CrossRef

Bisht DS, Sridhar V, Mishra A, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS (2019) Drought characterization over India under projected climate scenario. Int J Climatol 39:1889–1911. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5922CrossRef

Bisht DS, Mohite AR, Jena PP, Khatun A, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS, Singh R, Sahoo B (2020) Impact of climate change on streamflow regime of a large Indian river basin using a novel monthly hybrid bias correction technique and a conceptual modeling framework. J Hydrol 590:125448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125448CrossRef

Bisht DS, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS, Sridhar V (2017) Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins. Theor Appl Climatol, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2095-8

Boé J, Terray L, Habets F, Martin E (2007) Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies. Int J Climatol 27:1643–1655. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1602CrossRef

Challinor AJ, Osborne T, Morse A, Shaffrey L, Wheeler T, Weller H, Vidale PL (2009) Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:836–848. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2403.1CrossRef

Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103

Chen J, Li X, Martel JL, Brissette FP, Zhang XJ, Frei A (2021) Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change. J Clim 34:465–478. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0424.1CrossRef

Chong-hai X, Ying X (2012) The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 5:527–533. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2012.11447042CrossRef

CWC (2019) Reassessment of water availability in basins using space inputs. Basin Planning and Management Organisation, New Delhi, India. https://doi.org/10.1044/leader.ppl.24062019.28

Dhage PM, Raghuwanshi NS, Singh R, Mishra A (2016) Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1743-8CrossRef

Dickinson RE, Errico RM, Giorgi F, Bates GT (1989) A regional climate model for the western United States. Clim Chang 153:383–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00240465CrossRef

Fahad MGR, Saiful Islam AKM, Nazari R, Alfi Hasan M, Tarekul Islam GM, Bala SK (2018) Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias-corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high-emission pathways. Int J Climatol 38:1634–1648. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5284CrossRef

Gadgil S, Vinayachandran PN, Francis PA, Gadgil S (2004) Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 31. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019733

Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2007) Nonparametric methods for modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty in drought assessment. Water Resour Res 43:1–19. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005351CrossRef

Giorgi F (2019) Thirty years of regional climate modeling: where are we and where are we going next? J Geophys Res Atmos 124:5696–5723. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030094CrossRef

Giorgi F, Gutowski WJ (2015) Regional dynamical downscaling and the CORDEX initiative. Annu Rev Environ Resour 40:467–490. https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ENVIRON-102014-021217CrossRef

Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob Planet Change 100:172–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014CrossRef

GOI (2018) Economic Survey 2017–18. Minsitry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs, New Delhi, India

GOI (2020) Annual Report 2019–20. Minsitry of Jal Shakti, Department of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation, New Delhi, India

Gosain AK, Rao S, Basuray D (2006) Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins. Current Sci 90:346–353. https://doi.org/10.2307/24091868CrossRef

Goyal MK, Surampalli RY (2018) Impact of climate change on water resources in India. J Environ Eng 144:04018054. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)ee.1943-7870.0001394CrossRef

Gutowski WJ, Ullrich PA, Hall A, Leung LR, O’Brien TA, Patricola CM et al (2020) The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: process understanding and stakeholder information. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 101:E664–E683. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0113.1CrossRef

Harrison S, Kargel JS, Huggel C, Reynolds J, Shugar DH, Betts RA et al (2018) Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods. Cryosphere 12:1195–1209. https://doi.org/10.5194/TC-12-1195-2018CrossRef

Hasson S, Pascale S, Lucarini V, Böhner J (2016) Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: a review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmos Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008CrossRef

Hrudya PH, Varikoden H, Vishnu R (2020) A review on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, variability and its association with ENSO and IOD. Meteorol Atmos Phys 1331:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00703-020-00734-5CrossRef

IPCC (2000) Summary for policymakers. In: Emission Scenario, a special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based, pp. 1–27

IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai, X, Maskell K, Johnson CA eds]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 881

IPCC (2007) Climate Chnage 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. In: Parry ML, Canziani, OFF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) International encyclopedia of human geography. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-008044910-4.00250-9

IPCC (2012a) Summary for policymakers. In: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781139177245

IPCC (2012b) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245

IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y eds]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

IPCC (2021) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC-TGICA (2007) General guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Version 2. Prepared by T.R. Carter on behalf of the IPCC, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment

Jain SK, Nayak PC, Singh Y, Chandniha SK (2017) Trends in rainfall and peak flows for some river basins in India. Curr Sci 112:1712–1726CrossRef

Jena PP, Chatterjee C, Pradhan G, Mishra A (2014) Are recent frequent high floods in Mahanadi basin in eastern India due to increase in extreme rainfalls? J Hydrol 517:847–862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.021CrossRef

Knutson TR, Manabe S, Gu D (1997) Simulated ENSO in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model: multidecadal amplitude modulation and CO₂ sensitivity. J Clim 10:138–161. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3c0138:SEIAGC%3e2.0.CO;2CrossRef

Krysanova V, Vetter T, Eisner S, Huang S, Pechlivanidis I, Strauch M et al (2017) Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrologic models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis. Environ Res Lett 12:105002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359CrossRef

Mallya G, Mishra V, Niyogi D, Tripathi S, Govindaraju RS (2016) Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region. Weather Clim Extrem 12:43–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002CrossRef

Maurer JM, Schaefer JM, Rupper S, Corley A (2019). Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the past 40 years. Sci Adv 5. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7266

Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Covey C, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2000) The coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:313–318CrossRef

Mishra V, Lilhare R (2016) Hydrologic sensitivity of Indian sub-continental river basins to climate change. Glob Planet Change 139:78–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.01.003CrossRef

Mishra AK, Singh VP (2009) Analysis of drought severity-area-frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty. J Geophys Res 114:D06120. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010986CrossRef

Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823CrossRef

Navarro-Racines C, Tarapues J, Thornton P, Jarvis A, Ramirez-Villegas J (2020) High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments. Sci Data 71:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0343-8CrossRef

O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Ebi KL, Kemp-Benedict E, Riahi K, Rothman DS et al (2017) The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Glob Environ Chang 42:169–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004CrossRef

Pai DS, Sridhar L(2015) Long term trends in the extreme rainfall events over India, high-impact weather events over the SAARC region. Springer International Publishing, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10217-7

Prasad V, Kulkarni AV, Pradeep S, Pratibha S, Tawde SA, Shirsat T et al (2019) Large losses in glacier area and water availability by the end of twenty-first century under high emission scenario, Satluj basin. Himalaya. Curr. Sci. 116:1721–1730CrossRef

Rummukainen M (2010) State-of-the-art with regional climate models. Wires Clim Chang 1:82–96. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.008CrossRef

Salvi K, Kannan S, Ghosh S (2013) High-resolution multisite daily rainfall projections in India with statistical downscaling for climate change impacts assessment. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:3557–3578. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50280CrossRef

Salvi K, Ghosh S (2016) Projections of extreme dry and wet spells in the 21st century India using stationary and non-stationary standardized precipitation indices. Clim Change, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1824-9

Santoso H, Idinoba M, Imbach P (2008) Climate scenarios: what we need to know and how to generate them. Working paper

Smitha PS, Narasimhan B, Sudheer KP, Annamalai H (2018) An improved bias correction method of daily rainfall data using a sliding window technique for climate change impact assessment. J Hydrol 556:100–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2017.11.010CrossRef

Tabari H, Talaee PH (2011) Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005. J Hydrol 396:313–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.11.034CrossRef

Tabari H, Paz SM, Buekenhout D, Willems P (2021) Comparison of statistical downscaling methods for climate change impact analysis on precipitation-driven drought. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 25:3493–3517. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021CrossRef

Thornton PK, Ericksen PJ, Herrero M, Challinor AJ (2014) Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review. Glob Chang Biol 20:3313–3328. https://doi.org/10.1111/GCB.12581CrossRef

Turral H, Burke J, Faures JM (2008) Climate change, water and food security, food and agriculture organization of the United nations (FAO)

UNFCC (1992) United Nations framework convention on climate change. United Nations, General Assembly, New York

USGCRP (2017) Climate science special report: fourth national climate assessment, vol I [Wuebbles DJ, Fahey DW, Hibbard KA, Dokken DJ, Stewart BC, Maycock TK, eds]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811213953_0022

Vinnarasi R, Dhanya CT (2016) Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:2146–2160. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024310CrossRef

Wang X, Yang T, Li X, Shi P, Zhou X (2016) Spatio-temporal changes of precipitation and temperature over the Pearl River basin based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31:1077–1089. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1286-7CrossRef

Wilby RL, Wigley TML (1997) Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Prog Phys Geogr Earth Environ 21:530–548. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339702100403CrossRef

Wilby RL, Troni J, Biot Y, Tedd L, Hewitson BC, Smith DM, Sutton RT (2009) A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. Int J Climatol 29:1193–1215. https://doi.org/10.1002/JOC.1839CrossRef

WMO (2017) Guidelines on the calculation of climate normals. WMO-No. 1203:29

Wood AW, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier DP (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Change 62:189–216. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9eCrossRef

Yu JY, Mechoso CR (2001) A coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM study of the ENSO cycle. J Clim 14:2329–2350. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c2329:ACAOGS%3e2.0.CO;2CrossRef

Zhang Z, Li J (2020) Big data mining for climate change, 1st edn. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/c2018-0-00973-1

Titel: Climate Change Impact Analysis
verfasst von: Vijay P. Singh
Rajendra Singh
Pranesh Kumar Paul
Deepak Singh Bisht
Srishti Gaur
Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore
Buch: Hydrological Processes Modelling and Data Analysis
Print ISBN: 978-981-9713-15-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-9713-16-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-1316-5_5

Premium Partner

Marktübersichten

Die im Laufe eines Jahres in der „adhäsion“ veröffentlichten Marktübersichten helfen Anwendern verschiedenster Branchen, sich einen gezielten Überblick über Lieferantenangebote zu verschaffen.

Zur Marktübersicht