1 Introduction
Station | Lata (°) | Longb (°) | Altitc (m) | Ariditylimits | aid (km2) | Average | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No | ID | Tme (°C) | Pf (mm) | PETg (mm) | ||||||
Upper | Lower | |||||||||
1 | Razi | 38.48 | 44.35 | 1980 | 1.435 | 0.352 | 638.512 | 5.36 | 661.53 | 860.18 |
2 | Koozerash | 38.15 | 44.46 | 1344 | 1.205 | 0.382 | 5703.939 | 5.18 | 754.73 | 912.79 |
3 | Ravand Urmia | 37.75 | 44.76 | 1290 | 0.735 | 0.262 | 2340.584 | 7.70 | 495.90 | 1008.03 |
4 | Mirbad Azarbayjan | 36.98 | 45.01 | 1650 | 1.445 | 0.482 | 433.351 | 8.82 | 1099.06 | 1103.28 |
5 | Soran | 36.87 | 44.63 | 1132 | 0.955 | 0.342 | 6712.594 | 9.76 | 812.22 | 1192.39 |
6 | Duhook | 36.86 | 43.00 | 276 | 0.985 | 0.252 | 1325.940 | 16.57 | 844.86 | 1275.51 |
7 | Aqra | 36.73 | 43.86 | 555 | 0.574 | 0.212 | 12,049.926 | 19.54 | 844.86 | 1529.02 |
8 | Piranshahr | 36.70 | 45.13 | 1350 | 0.634 | 0.202 | 1096.630 | 12.25 | 1107.69 | 1309.73 |
9 | Salahddin | 36.38 | 44.20 | 1088 | 0.554 | 0.171 | 2027.142 | 18.11 | 645.63 | 1499.26 |
10 | Bashur | 36.37 | 44.37 | 977 | 0.554 | 0.171 | 1766.900 | 18.11 | 645.63 | 1497.10 |
11 | Mosul | 36.31 | 43.11 | 223 | 0.544 | 0.151 | 668.228 | 20.61 | 586.75 | 1646.54 |
12 | Erbil | 36.15 | 44.00 | 1088 | 0.795 | 0.293 | 3634.029 | 20.17 | 571.68 | 1664.42 |
13 | Makhmoor | 35.75 | 43.60 | 306 | 0.313 | 0.072 | 3634.029 | 21.26 | 360.79 | 1567.47 |
Basin | – | – | – | 0.765 | 0.253 | 42,031.8 | 14.85 | 727.12 | 1348.48 |
2 Data and Methodology
2.1 Illustrative Case Study Region
2.2 Data Availability, Collection and Analysis Techniques
2.3 Meteorological Drought
2.3.1 Reconnaissance Drought Index
2.3.2 Standardised Precipitation Index
2.3.3 Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
3 Results and Discussion
3.1 Analysis of Climate Data
Station | Mean air temperature (°C) | Precipitation (mm) | Potential evapotranspiration (mm) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | ID | M-Ka | p value | Sb | M-Ka | p value | Sb | M-Ka | p value | Sb |
1 | Razi | −0.356* | <0.05 | −0.053 | −0.311* | <0.05 | −9.898 | 0.052 | 0.653 | 0.348 |
2 | Koozerash | −0.368* | <0.05 | −0.047 | −0.343* | <0.05 | −13.903 | 0.059 | 0.614 | 0.295 |
3 | Ravand Urmia | −0.149 | 0.207 | −0.016 | −0.342* | <0.05 | −10.417 | 0.256* | <0.05 | 1.386 |
4 | Mirbad Azarbayjan | −0.083* | 0.490 | −0.009 | −0.543* | <0.05 | −23.798 | 0.221 | 0.058 | 2.096 |
5 | Soran | 0.213 | 0.070 | 0.017 | −0.492* | <0.05 | −17.752 | 0.475* | <0.05 | 3.766 |
6 | Duhook | 0.444* | <0.05 | 0.045 | −0.444* | <0.05 | −17.172 | 0.634* | <0.05 | 4.339 |
7 | Aqra | 0.216 | 0.066 | 0.036 | −0.444* | <0.05 | −17.172 | 0.399* | <0.05 | 2.594 |
8 | Piranshahr | 0.152 | 0.197 | 0.015 | −0.530* | <0.05 | −25.88 | 0.519* | <0.05 | 3.043 |
9 | Salahddin | 0.175 | 0.139 | 0.025 | −0.225 | 0.055 | −9.567 | 0.535* | <0.05 | 3.471 |
10 | Bashur | 0.175 | 0.139 | 0.025 | −0.225 | 0.055 | −9.567 | 0.526* | <0.05 | 2.961 |
11 | Mosul | 0.286 | <0.05 | 0.027 | −0.629* | <0.05 | −18.895 | 0.456* | <0.05 | 2.630 |
12 | Erbeel | 0.171 | 0.146 | 0.020 | −0.451* | <0.05 | −13.776 | 0.491* | <0.05 | 3.134 |
13 | Makhmoor | 0.184 | 0.118 | 0.019 | −0.537* | <0.05 | −10.276 | 0.367* | <0.05 | 0.966 |
Month | Mina | Maxb | Meanc | SDd | % | CVe (%) | M-Kf | p-vaue | Sen’s slope |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.01 | 111.26 | 34.09 | 29.25 | 5.17 | 85.82 | −0.241* | <0.05 | −0.896 |
Nov | 0.00 | 196.75 | 77.99 | 55.55 | 11.82 | 71.23 | −0.263* | <0.05 | −1.998 |
Dec | 13.52 | 239.10 | 92.44 | 52.95 | 14.01 | 57.28 | −0.137 | 0.247 | −1.194 |
Jan | 17.93 | 327.21 | 103.16 | 55.29 | 15.63 | 53.59 | 0.063 | 0.595 | 0.282 |
Feb | 18.23 | 215.06 | 101.74 | 45.55 | 15.42 | 44.77 | −0.222 | 0.058 | −1.463 |
March | 30.47 | 222.36 | 104.54 | 48.08 | 15.84 | 45.99 | −0.143 | 0.225 | −1.322 |
April | 5.38 | 178.34 | 81.21 | 42.10 | 12.31 | 51.85 | −0.333* | <0.05 | −1.546 |
May | 7.44 | 164.75 | 45.45 | 34.50 | 6.89 | 75.90 | −0.146 | 0.215 | −0.416 |
Jun | 0.43 | 44.55 | 10.07 | 9.75 | 1.53 | 96.77 | −0.038 | 0.754 | −0.044 |
Jul | 0.04 | 12.69 | 3.25 | 3.04 | 0.49 | 93.62 | 0.054 | 0.653 | 0.016 |
Aug | 0.02 | 15.68 | 2.45 | 3.03 | 0.37 | 123.66 | −0.171 | 0.145 | −0.037 |
Sep | 0.00 | 18.07 | 3.42 | 4.33 | 0.52 | 126.66 | 0.016 | 0.902 | 0.002 |
No. | ID | Spearman correlation | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meteorological drought indices | Meteorological drought indices and aridity index | ||||||
RDIast vis SPIb | RDIst vis SPEIc | SPI vis SPEI | RDIst vis RDIα12 | SPI vis RDIα12 | SPEI vis RDIα12 | ||
1 | Razi | 0.990 | 0.991 | 0.929 | 1.000 | 0.990 | 0.919 |
2 | Koozerash | 0.990 | 0.908 | 0.907 | 1.000 | 0.992 | 0.908 |
3 | Ravand Urmia | 0.994 | 0.858 | 0.847 | 1.000 | 0.994 | 0.858 |
4 | Mirbad Azarbayjan | 0.989 | 0.923 | 0.936 | 1.000 | 0.989 | 0.923 |
5 | Soran | 0.987 | 0.994 | 0.929 | 1.000 | 0.987 | 0.944 |
6 | Duhook | 0.995 | 0.913 | 0.910 | 1.000 | 0.995 | 0.913 |
7 | Aqra | 0.996 | 0.937 | 0.937 | 1.000 | 0.996 | 0.937 |
8 | Piranshahr | 0.994 | 0.702 | 0.687 | 1.000 | 0.994 | 0.702 |
9 | Salahddin | 0.994 | 0.955 | 0.949 | 1.000 | 0.994 | 0.955 |
10 | Badush | 0.997 | 0.950 | 0.949 | 1.000 | 0.997 | 0.950 |
11 | Mosul | 0.997 | 0.968 | 0.966 | 1.000 | 0.997 | 0.968 |
12 | Erbeel | 0.839 | 0.859 | 0.926 | 1.000 | 0.839 | 0.859 |
13 | Makhmoor | 0.996 | 0.963 | 0.962 | 1.000 | 0.996 | 0.963 |
Basin | 0.982 | 0.971 | 0.972 | 0.995 | 0.994 | 0.975 | |
PCI | Description | Number of years | |||||
< 10 | Low precipitation concentration (almost uniform) | 4 | |||||
11–15 | Moderate concentration | 12 | |||||
16–20 | High concentration | 5 | |||||
≥ 21 | Very high concentration | 14 |
3.2 Drought and Aridity Identification, Classification and Correlation
3.3 Change Point Identification
Index | Statistical analysis | homogeneity test | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mina | Maxb | Mean | SDc | 1d | 2e | 3f | 4g | |
k-value (5h) | To (5h) | Q-value (5h) | R-value (5h) | |||||
RDIst | −2.09 | 1.08 | 0.01 | 0.89 | 256 (Ha) | 14.94 (Ha) | 11.69 (Ha) | 13.86 (Ha) |
SPI | −2.01 | 1.20 | 0.02 | 0.88 | 240 (Ha) | 13.21 (Ha) | 10.99 (Ha) | 14.34 (Ha) |
SPEI | −1.59 | 1.24 | 0.04 | 0.86 | 264 (Ha) | 17..98 (Ha) | 12.82 (Ha) | 14.97 (Ha) |
AI | 0.24 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 256 (Ha) | 15.71 (Ha) | 11.98 (Ha) | 14.30 (Ha) |
Index | Statistical analysis | homogeneity test | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mina | Maxb | Mean | SDc | 1d | 2e | 3f | 4g | |
k-value (5h) | To (5h) | Q-value (5h) | R-value (5h) | |||||
RDIst | −2.09 | 1.08 | 0.01 | 0.89 | 256 (Ha) | 14.94 (Ha) | 11.69 (Ha) | 13.86 (Ha) |
SPI | −2.01 | 1.20 | 0.02 | 0.88 | 240 (Ha) | 13.21 (Ha) | 10.99 (Ha) | 14.34 (Ha) |
SPEI | −1.59 | 1.24 | 0.04 | 0.86 | 264 (Ha) | 17..98 (Ha) | 12.82 (Ha) | 14.97 (Ha) |
RDIα12 | 0.24 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 256 (Ha) | 15.71 (Ha) | 11.98 (Ha) | 14.30 (Ha) |