Comparison of BEKK GARCH and DCC GARCH Models: An Empirical Study

Modeling volatility and co-volatility of a few zero-coupon bonds is a fundamental element in the field of fix-income risk evaluation. Multivariate GARCH model (MGARCH), an extension of the well-known univariate GARCH, is one of the most useful tools in modeling the co-movement of multivariate time series with time-varying covariance matrix. Grounded on the review of various formulations of multivariate GARCH model, this paper estimates two MGARCH models, BEKK and DCC form, respectively, based on the data of three AAA-rated Euro zero-coupon bonds with different maturities (6 months/1 year/2 years). Post-model diagnostics indicates satisfying fitting performance of these estimated MGARCH models. Moreover, this paper provides comparison on the goodness of fit and forecasting performances of these forms by adopting the mean absolute error (MAE) criterion. Throughout this application, the conclusion can be drawn that significant fitting and forecasting performances originate from the trade-off between parsimony and flexibility of the MGARCH models.