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Erschienen in:
Theory of Change: Defining the Research Agenda Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Comprehensive Simulation Meta Model for Transition Planning and Decision Analysis with Sustainable Impact

verfasst von : Salomon Billeter

Erschienen in: Theories of Change

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

A comprehensive simulation meta model for transition planning and decision analysis is proposed and outlined. This model is designed to provide insight on the effects of a proposed agenda ahead of time, and to support an optimization of means and resources available to decision makers in governments, organizations, businesses, or to private persons to reach their goals across different time horizons and considering different quantities of relevance.
The model supports multiple use cases. The system of interest, the decision makers, the nature of the decisions to be made, and the quantities relevant to the decision makers do not need to be defined a priori. The results of the simulation can be aggregated onto diverse observables relevant for business, economy, society, and environment.
The meta model is modular, combining existing domain-specific models into one framework. It will gradually be extended to cover all domains and scales relevant for sustainable business, sustainable finance, and sustainable development.
The article outlines the approach and gives examples of applications. It also shows how the model will gradually be developed during its application, allowing a targeted and fast application while allowing continuous learning and improvement.

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Fußnoten
1
Synthetic approaches are used in different areas. In molecular simulation for example, mixed quantum-classical simulations at various levels allow the simulation of transitions as complex as enzyme reactions, involving 100,000s of electrons and spanning 10 orders of magnitude in time, from femtoseconds to microseconds, see e.g. Billeter et al. (2001). In social sciences, synthetic modeling has recently been established, see e.g. Billeter and Salghetti (2016), Bollinger et al. (2017), and Pauliuk et al. (2017).
 
2
The achievable time horizon depends on the nature and scale of the use case as well as the constraints put into the calculation. It generally ranges from a few years to a few decades.
 
3
For a definition, see the glossary.
 
4
For example wealth of actors such as natural or juristic persons, or the water supplies of a habitat.
 
5
See reporting 3.0 New Business Model Blueprint (Baue and Thurm 2018).
 
6
System dynamics has a good track record in solving sustainability-related challenges. For Millennium Institute’s iSDG model, see e.g. Arquitt et al. (2018).
 
7
Depending on community, such influences may be called “stress” or “perturbation”. In the SISAL model, the action module influences the other modules, and the environment acts on the core system. Hence, an agenda consists of external influences.
 
8
Such methods have successfully been used to accurately simulate enzyme reactions which occur at a rate approximately ten orders of magnitude slower than the atomic motions, see Billeter et al. (2001).
 
9
For examples on model integration, see Billeter et al. (2001), Bollinger et al. (2017), and Pauliuk et al. (2017).
 
10
See e.g. Dawid et al. (2016), Aznar-Siguan and Bresch (2019), Battiston et al. (2016a), Billeter and Salghetti (2016), Rudolf and Zurlinden (2014).
 
11
See e.g. Battiston et al. (2016b).
 
12
Examples include simple regression models, generalized linear models, autoregressive models, and a wealth of additional techniques.
 
13
Since decades, the RAND Corporation has formalized human judgement. An entry point is e.g. Sackman (1974). Moreover, scenario analysis has been successfully applied since a long time. A review is provided in Kosov and Gassner (2008).
 
14
May involve several entities and relationships.
 
15
See Section “Use Cases”.
 
16
People, companies, governments, goods, etc.
 
17
For example in biochemistry the protein around the reactive core, in finance the macro economy around the company, in society the other societies interacting with it.
 
18
See Sects. 3.6 and 3.6.3 and references therein.
 
19
Both for upfront integration and for updates.
 
Literatur
Battiston, S., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Schütze, F., & Visentin, G. (2016a). A climate stress test of the financial system, SSRN-id2726076.
Battiston, S., Caldarelli, G., D’Errico, M., & Gurciullo, S. (2016b). Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank. Statistics and Risk Modeling, 33, 117.CrossRef
Billeter, S., & Salghetti, F. (2016). Bringing a forward-looking perspective into liability modelling: Liability risk drivers, Swiss Re.
Billeter, S., Webb, S. P., Iordanov, T., Agarwal, P. K., & Hammes-Schiffer, S. (2001). Hybrid approach for including electronic and nuclear quantum effects in molecular dynamics simulations of hydrogen transfer reactions in enzymes. Journal of Chemical Physics, 114, 6925.CrossRef
Dawid, H., Harting, P., Hoog, S., & Neugart, M. (2016). A heterogeneous agent macroeconomic model for policy evaluation: Improving transparency and reproducibility. Universität Bielefeld, Working Papers in Economics and Management.
Pauliuk, S., Arvesen, A., Stadler, K., & Hertwich, E. G. (2017). Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models. Nature Climate Change, 7, 13.CrossRef
Rudolf, B., & Zurlinden, M. (2014). A compact open economy DSGE model for Switzerland. SNB Economic Studies 8/2014.
Metadaten
Titel
Comprehensive Simulation Meta Model for Transition Planning and Decision Analysis with Sustainable Impact
verfasst von
Salomon Billeter
Copyright-Jahr
2021
Verlag
Springer International Publishing
Buch
Theories of Change

Print ISBN: 978-3-030-52274-2

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-52275-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2021

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52275-9_14