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Erschienen in:
1994 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Continental Expansion of Plant Disease: A Survey of Some Recent Results
verfasst von : F. Van Den Bosch, J. C. Zadoks, J. A. J. Metz
Erschienen in: Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive
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In this paper we show how the continental expansion of fungal plant diseases can be modeled. The model takes the form of a set of two integral equations. The equations describe a systematic book-keeping of the dynamics of the number of foci in host fields. Using results on related models for the spatial expansion of epidemics, the velocity of expansion can be calculated. We present explicit formulae for the expansion velocity, both within one growing season and for successive growing seasons. The method thus developed is applied to the invasion of Phytophthora infestans. This example serves as a first verification of the model. The example also shows what type of data are needed to get insight in the development of quarantine pests.