Skip to main content

2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Data-Driven Fast Real-Time Flood Forecasting Model for Processing Concept Drift

verfasst von : Le Yan, Jun Feng, Yirui Wu, Tingting Hang

Erschienen in: Cloud Computing, Smart Grid and Innovative Frontiers in Telecommunications

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The hydrological data of small and medium watershed develops with the passage of time. The rainfall-runoff patterns in these data often develop over time, and the models established for the analysis of such data will soon not be applicable. In view of the problem that adaptability and accuracy of the existing data-driven flood real-time forecasting model in medium and small watershed with concept drift. We update the data-driven model using incremental training based on support vector machine (SVM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) model respectively. According to the rapid real-time flood forecasting test results of the Tunxi watershed, Anhui Province, China, the fast real-time flood forecast data-driven model with incremental update can more accurately predict the moment when the flood begins to rise and the highest point of flood stream-flow, and it is an effective tool for real-time flood forecasting in small and medium watersheds.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Danso-Amoako, E., Scholz, M., Kalimeris, N., Yang, Q., Shao, J.: Predicting dam failure risk for sustainable flood retention basins: a generic case study for the wider greater manchester area. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 36(5), 423–433 (2012) Danso-Amoako, E., Scholz, M., Kalimeris, N., Yang, Q., Shao, J.: Predicting dam failure risk for sustainable flood retention basins: a generic case study for the wider greater manchester area. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 36(5), 423–433 (2012)
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Xie, K., Ozbay, K., Zhu, Y., Yang, H.: Evacuation zone modeling under climate change: a data-driven method. J. Infrastruct. Syst. 23(4), 04017013 (2017) Xie, K., Ozbay, K., Zhu, Y., Yang, H.: Evacuation zone modeling under climate change: a data-driven method. J. Infrastruct. Syst. 23(4), 04017013 (2017)
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Salas, J.D.: Applied Modeling of Hydrologic Time Series. Water Resources Publication, Littleton (1980) Salas, J.D.: Applied Modeling of Hydrologic Time Series. Water Resources Publication, Littleton (1980)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Valipour, M., Banihabib, M.E., Behbahani, S.M.R.: Parameters estimate of autoregressive moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average models and compare their ability for inflow forecasting. J. Math. Stat. 8(3), 330–338 (2012) Valipour, M., Banihabib, M.E., Behbahani, S.M.R.: Parameters estimate of autoregressive moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average models and compare their ability for inflow forecasting. J. Math. Stat. 8(3), 330–338 (2012)
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Valipour, M., Banihabib, M.E., Behbahani, S.M.R.: Comparison of the ARMA, ARIMA, and the autoregressive artificial neural network models in forecasting the monthly inflow of Dez dam reservoir. J. Hydrol. 476, 433–441 (2013) Valipour, M., Banihabib, M.E., Behbahani, S.M.R.: Comparison of the ARMA, ARIMA, and the autoregressive artificial neural network models in forecasting the monthly inflow of Dez dam reservoir. J. Hydrol. 476, 433–441 (2013)
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Xinying, Y., Liong, S.-Y.: Forecasting of hydrologic time series with ridge regression in feature space. J. Hydrol. 332(3–4), 290–302 (2007) Xinying, Y., Liong, S.-Y.: Forecasting of hydrologic time series with ridge regression in feature space. J. Hydrol. 332(3–4), 290–302 (2007)
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Adamowski, J., Chan, H.F., Prasher, S.O., Ozga-Zielinski, B., Sliusarieva, A.: Comparison of multiple linear and nonlinear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificial neural network, and wavelet artificial neural network methods for urban water demand forecasting in Montreal, Canada. Water Resour. Res. 48(1) (2012) Adamowski, J., Chan, H.F., Prasher, S.O., Ozga-Zielinski, B., Sliusarieva, A.: Comparison of multiple linear and nonlinear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificial neural network, and wavelet artificial neural network methods for urban water demand forecasting in Montreal, Canada. Water Resour. Res. 48(1) (2012)
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Tanty, R., Desmukh, T.S.: Application of artificial neural network in hydrology-a review. Int. J. Eng. Technol. Res 4, 184–188 (2015) Tanty, R., Desmukh, T.S.: Application of artificial neural network in hydrology-a review. Int. J. Eng. Technol. Res 4, 184–188 (2015)
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Taormina, R., Chau, K.-W., Sethi, R.: Artificial neural network simulation of hourly groundwater levels in a coastal aquifer system of the Venice lagoon. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 25(8), 1670–1676 (2012) Taormina, R., Chau, K.-W., Sethi, R.: Artificial neural network simulation of hourly groundwater levels in a coastal aquifer system of the Venice lagoon. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 25(8), 1670–1676 (2012)
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Granata, F., Gargano, R., de Marinis, G.: Support vector regression for rainfall-runoff modeling in urban drainage: a comparison with the EPA’s storm water management model. Water 8(3), 69 (2016) Granata, F., Gargano, R., de Marinis, G.: Support vector regression for rainfall-runoff modeling in urban drainage: a comparison with the EPA’s storm water management model. Water 8(3), 69 (2016)
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Gong, Y., Zhang, Y., Lan, S., Wang, H.: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector machines and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for forecasting groundwater levels near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Water Resour. Manage. 30(1), 375–391 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1167-8 Gong, Y., Zhang, Y., Lan, S., Wang, H.: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector machines and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for forecasting groundwater levels near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Water Resour. Manage. 30(1), 375–391 (2015). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11269-015-1167-8
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Shu, C., Ouarda, T.B.M.J.: Regional flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites using the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. J. Hydrol. 349(1–2), 31–43 (2008) Shu, C., Ouarda, T.B.M.J.: Regional flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites using the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. J. Hydrol. 349(1–2), 31–43 (2008)
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Sharma, S., Srivastava, P., Fang, X., Kalin, L.: Performance comparison of adoptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with loading simulation program C++ (LSPC) model for streamflow simulation in EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-affected watershed. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(4), 2213–2223 (2015) Sharma, S., Srivastava, P., Fang, X., Kalin, L.: Performance comparison of adoptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with loading simulation program C++ (LSPC) model for streamflow simulation in EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-affected watershed. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(4), 2213–2223 (2015)
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Tiwari, M.K., Chatterjee, C.: Development of an accurate and reliable hourly flood forecasting model using wavelet-bootstrap-ANN (WBANN) hybrid approach. J. Hydrol. 394(3–4), 458–470 (2010) Tiwari, M.K., Chatterjee, C.: Development of an accurate and reliable hourly flood forecasting model using wavelet-bootstrap-ANN (WBANN) hybrid approach. J. Hydrol. 394(3–4), 458–470 (2010)
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Augusto, C., Santos, G., Barbosa, G., da Silva, L.: Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models. Hydrol. Sci. J. 59(2), 312–324 (2014) Augusto, C., Santos, G., Barbosa, G., da Silva, L.: Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models. Hydrol. Sci. J. 59(2), 312–324 (2014)
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Partal, T.: Wavelet regression and wavelet neural network models for forecasting monthly streamflow. J. Water Clim. Change 8(1), 48–61 (2017) Partal, T.: Wavelet regression and wavelet neural network models for forecasting monthly streamflow. J. Water Clim. Change 8(1), 48–61 (2017)
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Choubin, B., Zehtabian, G., Azareh, A., Rafiei-Sardooi, E., Sajedi-Hosseini, F., Kişi, Ö.: Precipitation forecasting using classification and regression trees (CART) model: a comparative study of different approaches. Environ. Earth Sci. 77(8), 1–13 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7498-z Choubin, B., Zehtabian, G., Azareh, A., Rafiei-Sardooi, E., Sajedi-Hosseini, F., Kişi, Ö.: Precipitation forecasting using classification and regression trees (CART) model: a comparative study of different approaches. Environ. Earth Sci. 77(8), 1–13 (2018). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s12665-018-7498-z
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Sajedi-Hosseini, F., Malekian, A., Choubin, B., Rahmati, O., Cipullo, S., Coulon, F., Pradhan, B.: A novel machine learning-based approach for the risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination. Sci. Total Environ. 644, 954–962 (2018) Sajedi-Hosseini, F., Malekian, A., Choubin, B., Rahmati, O., Cipullo, S., Coulon, F., Pradhan, B.: A novel machine learning-based approach for the risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination. Sci. Total Environ. 644, 954–962 (2018)
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Moore, K.J., Kurt, M., Eriten, M., McFarland, D.M., Bergman, L.A., Vakakis, A.F.: Wavelet-bounded empirical mode decomposition for measured time series analysis. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 99, 14–29 (2018) Moore, K.J., Kurt, M., Eriten, M., McFarland, D.M., Bergman, L.A., Vakakis, A.F.: Wavelet-bounded empirical mode decomposition for measured time series analysis. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 99, 14–29 (2018)
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Al-Musaylh, M.S., Deo, R.C., Li, Y., Adamowski, J.F.: Two-phase particle swarm optimized-support vector regression hybrid model integrated with improved empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for multiple-horizon electricity demand forecasting. Appl. Energy 217, 422–439 (2018) Al-Musaylh, M.S., Deo, R.C., Li, Y., Adamowski, J.F.: Two-phase particle swarm optimized-support vector regression hybrid model integrated with improved empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for multiple-horizon electricity demand forecasting. Appl. Energy 217, 422–439 (2018)
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Bai, Y., Chen, Z., Xie, J., Li, C.: Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using multiscale deep feature learning with hybrid models. J. Hydrol. 532, 193–206 (2016) Bai, Y., Chen, Z., Xie, J., Li, C.: Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using multiscale deep feature learning with hybrid models. J. Hydrol. 532, 193–206 (2016)
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Liu, F., Xu, F., Yang, S.: A flood forecasting model based on deep learning algorithm via integrating stacked autoencoders with BP neural network. In: IEEE Third International Conference on Multimedia Big Data (BigMM), pp. 58–61. IEEE (2017) Liu, F., Xu, F., Yang, S.: A flood forecasting model based on deep learning algorithm via integrating stacked autoencoders with BP neural network. In: IEEE Third International Conference on Multimedia Big Data (BigMM), pp. 58–61. IEEE (2017)
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Herrnegger, M., Hochreiter, S., Klambauer, G.: Towards the quantification of uncertainty for deep learning based rainfall-runoff models (2019) Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Herrnegger, M., Hochreiter, S., Klambauer, G.: Towards the quantification of uncertainty for deep learning based rainfall-runoff models (2019)
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Cho, K., Van Merriënboer, B., Bahdanau, D., Bengio, Y.: On the properties of neural machine translation: encoder-decoder approaches. arXiv preprint arXiv:1409.1259 (2014) Cho, K., Van Merriënboer, B., Bahdanau, D., Bengio, Y.: On the properties of neural machine translation: encoder-decoder approaches. arXiv preprint arXiv:​1409.​1259 (2014)
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Anderson, M.G.: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. Wiley, New York (2005) Anderson, M.G.: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. Wiley, New York (2005)
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Beven, K.J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling the Primer. Wiley, New York (2012) Beven, K.J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling the Primer. Wiley, New York (2012)
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Todini, E.: Rainfall-runoff models for real-time forecasting. In: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences (2006) Todini, E.: Rainfall-runoff models for real-time forecasting. In: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences (2006)
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Butts, M.P., Hoest Madsen, J., Refsgaard, J.C.: Hydrologic forecasting. In: Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology, pp. 547–566 (2003) Butts, M.P., Hoest Madsen, J., Refsgaard, J.C.: Hydrologic forecasting. In: Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology, pp. 547–566 (2003)
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Gama, J., Žliobaitė, I., Bifet, A., Pechenizkiy, M., Bouchachia, A.: A survey on concept drift adaptation. ACM Comput. Surv. (CSUR) 46(4), 44 (2014)MATH Gama, J., Žliobaitė, I., Bifet, A., Pechenizkiy, M., Bouchachia, A.: A survey on concept drift adaptation. ACM Comput. Surv. (CSUR) 46(4), 44 (2014)MATH
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Moreno-Torres, J.G., Raeder, T., Alaiz-RodríGuez, R., Chawla, N.V., Herrera, F.: A unifying view on dataset shift in classification. Pattern Recognit. 45(1), 521–530 (2012) Moreno-Torres, J.G., Raeder, T., Alaiz-RodríGuez, R., Chawla, N.V., Herrera, F.: A unifying view on dataset shift in classification. Pattern Recognit. 45(1), 521–530 (2012)
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Tsymbal, A.: The problem of concept drift: definitions and related work. Comput. Sci. Dept. Trinity Coll. Dublin 106(2), 58 (2004) Tsymbal, A.: The problem of concept drift: definitions and related work. Comput. Sci. Dept. Trinity Coll. Dublin 106(2), 58 (2004)
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Bifet, A., Gavalda, R.: Learning from time-changing data with adaptive windowing. In: Proceedings of the 2007 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining, pp. 443–448. SIAM (2007) Bifet, A., Gavalda, R.: Learning from time-changing data with adaptive windowing. In: Proceedings of the 2007 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining, pp. 443–448. SIAM (2007)
40.
Zurück zum Zitat Klinkenberg, R.: Learning drifting concepts: example selection vs. example weighting. Intell. Data Anal. 8(3), 281–300 (2004) Klinkenberg, R.: Learning drifting concepts: example selection vs. example weighting. Intell. Data Anal. 8(3), 281–300 (2004)
41.
Zurück zum Zitat Song, G., Ye, Y., Zhang, H., Xu, X., Lau, R.Y.K., Liu, F.: Dynamic clustering forest: an ensemble framework to efficiently classify textual data stream with concept drift. Inform. Sci. 357, 125–143 (2016)MATH Song, G., Ye, Y., Zhang, H., Xu, X., Lau, R.Y.K., Liu, F.: Dynamic clustering forest: an ensemble framework to efficiently classify textual data stream with concept drift. Inform. Sci. 357, 125–143 (2016)MATH
43.
Zurück zum Zitat Collobert, R., Bengio, S.: SVMTorch: support vector machines for large-scale regression problems. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 1, 143–160 (2001)MathSciNetMATH Collobert, R., Bengio, S.: SVMTorch: support vector machines for large-scale regression problems. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 1, 143–160 (2001)MathSciNetMATH
44.
Zurück zum Zitat Tay, F.E.H., Cao, L.: Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting. Omega 29(4), 309–317 (2001) Tay, F.E.H., Cao, L.: Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting. Omega 29(4), 309–317 (2001)
46.
Zurück zum Zitat Dehghani, M., Saghafian, B., Nasiri Saleh, F., Farokhnia, A., Noori, R.: Uncertainty analysis of streamflow drought forecast using artificial neural networks and Monte-Carlo simulation. Int. J. Climatol. 34(4), 1169–1180 (2014) Dehghani, M., Saghafian, B., Nasiri Saleh, F., Farokhnia, A., Noori, R.: Uncertainty analysis of streamflow drought forecast using artificial neural networks and Monte-Carlo simulation. Int. J. Climatol. 34(4), 1169–1180 (2014)
47.
Zurück zum Zitat Bao, Y., Xiong, T., Zhongyi, H.: Multi-step-ahead time series prediction using multiple-output support vector regression. Neurocomputing 129, 482–493 (2014) Bao, Y., Xiong, T., Zhongyi, H.: Multi-step-ahead time series prediction using multiple-output support vector regression. Neurocomputing 129, 482–493 (2014)
Metadaten
Titel
Data-Driven Fast Real-Time Flood Forecasting Model for Processing Concept Drift
verfasst von
Le Yan
Jun Feng
Yirui Wu
Tingting Hang
Copyright-Jahr
2020
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48513-9_30

Premium Partner