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Erschienen in:
2022 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Data-Driven Modeling of Evacuation Decision-Making in Extreme Weather Events
verfasst von : Matthew Hancock, Nafisa Halim, Chris J. Kuhlman, Achla Marathe, Pallab Mozumder, S. S. Ravi, Anil Vullikanti
Erschienen in: Complex Networks & Their Applications X
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Abstract
Data from surveys administered after Hurricane Sandy provide a wealth of information that can be used to develop models of evacuation decision-making. We use a model based on survey data for predicting whether or not a family will evacuate. The model uses 26 features for each household including its neighborhood characteristics. We augment a 1.7 million node household-level synthetic social network of Miami, Florida with public data for the requisite model features so that our population is consistent with the survey-based model. Results show that household features that drive hurricane evacuations dominate the effects of specifying large numbers of families as “early evacuators” in a contagion process, and also dominate effects of peer influence to evacuate. There is a strong network-based evacuation suppression effect from the fear of looting. We also study spatial factors affecting evacuation rates as well as policy interventions to encourage evacuation.