Dealing With Load and Generation Cost Uncertainties in Power System Operation Studies: A Fuzzy Approach

Power systems are currently facing a change of the paradigm that determined their operation and planning while being surrounded by multiple uncertainties sources. As a consequence, dealing with uncertainty is becoming a crucial issue in the sense that all agents should be able to internalize them in their models to guarantee that activities are profitable and that operation and investment strategies are selected according to an adequate level of risk. Taking into account the introduction of market mechanisms and the volatility of fuel prices, this paper presents the models and the algorithms developed to address load and generation cost uncertainties. These models correspond to an enhanced approach regarding the original fuzzy optimal power flow model developed by the end of the 1990s, which considered only load uncertainties. The paper also describes the algorithms developed to integrate an estimate of active transmission losses and to compute nodal marginal prices reflecting such uncertainties. The developed algorithms use multiparametric optimization techniques and are illustrated using a case study based on the IEEE 24 bus test system.