Deterministic modeling in scenario forecasting: estimating the effects of two public policies on intergenerational conflict

In this article, we use a nonautonomous Lotka Volterra model to study the intergenerational conflict within an aging American society between 1974 and 2014. The main findings are that (1) the intensity of the competition among age cohorts is constantly increasing and has crowded out any mutualism, that (2) the elderly have improved their economic status relative to other age cohorts, and that (3) this trend is expected to intensify in the forecasted future (2014–2030). On this background, we test the impact of two stylized policies and of different demographic trends—for a total of 4 alternative scenarios—on the level of intergenerational conflict, and on the performances in terms of income of the relevant age cohorts in the forecasted period. The scenario analysis reveals that without policy intervention it is unlikely that society will revert to mutualistic interactions in the coming fifteen years. At the same time, policy reforms that are sufficiently far-reaching to interrupt the shift of resources from the young to the elderly might face significant political opposition. Politicians that are interested in preventing a gerontocracy and the explosion of intergenerational conflict have to find ways to lessen the opposition of the elderly to policy reforms that are in the interest of younger generations.