Dynamic change of land use/land cover patterns and driving factors of Nansihu Lake Basin in Shandong Province, China

Anthropogenic activities and natural factors have a significant effect on land use/land cover (LULC) patterns of Nansihu Lake basin. Understanding the LULC change is essential for regional sustainable development. Based on LULC change detection methods, we characterized the spatial–temporal change of LULC patterns. Logistic regression model and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model were used in driving factors analysis and scenario simulation. The results showed that cultivated land and construction land were the dominant LULC types. As construction land gradually expanded to the surrounding areas, a large amount of cultivated land was occupied, especially in the peripheral areas of the central cities. During 1987–2017, 4109.22 km² of cultivated land was converted into construction land, accounting for 86.38% of cultivated land change, and the contribution rate to construction land was 95.24%. Because of the severe drought in 2002, waters first decreased and then increased. The dynamic degree of waters reached 2.11%, and the increment of waters was mainly converted from cultivated land and unused land. The degree of LULC fragmentation was strengthened, and the distribution showed a diversified trend. The LULC changes were deeply influenced by natural environment and socio-economic factors. Under different scenarios, the expansion of construction land and occupation of cultivated land will continue to be the main features of LULC changes in the future. The LULC patterns will become more regular and more aggregated. This study can help address the interwoven challenges of urbanization development and ecological protection.