9.1 Introduction
9.1.1 Trends of Natural Disasters
9.2 Scenario Earthquake Simulators. An Evolution
Software | Institution | Programming language | Applicability | Availability | Graphical user interface | Type of calculators |
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ELENA | NORSAR | MATLAB/C | User-defined | OS | Yes | SCN/SDA/PEB |
EQRM | GA | Python | User-defined | OS | No | SCN/SDA/PEB |
ELER | KOERI | MATLAB | User-defined | SA | Yes | SCN/SDA |
QLARM | WAPMERR | Java | World | SC | Yes | SCN/SDA |
CEDIM | CEDIM | Visual Basic | User-defined | SC | Yes | SCN/SDA/CPB |
CAPRA | World Bank | Visual Basic | Central America | SC | Yes | SCN/PEB |
RiskScape | GNS | Java | New Zealand | SA | Yes | SCN/SDA |
LNECLoss | LNEC | Fortran | Portugal | SC | No | SCN/SDA |
MAEviz | MAE Center | Java | User-defined | OS | Yes | SCN/SDA/CPB |
OpenRisk | SPA Risk | Java | USA | SA | Yes | CPB/BCR |
OpenQuake | GEM | Phyton | World | OS | Yes | SCN/SDA/PEB/CPB/BCR |
9.2.1 QuakeIST®
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The simulator (QuakeIST®) can handle different ground motion scenarios provided by the user, referring the ground motion values to coordinates, using external scenarios obtained from different software’s like SASHA (D’Amico and Albarello 2008), PROSCEN (Rotondi and Zonno 2010), or any historical seismic scenario.
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QuakeIST® contains several well-known attenuation relationships that the user may select or adapt to their own conveniences, in order to calculate ground shaking based on an epicentral position (coordinates) and magnitude.
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QuakeIST® requires shaking intensity, PGA, PGV or PGD as an input parameter to some objects. Conversion between PGA, PGV, PGD and different macroseismic intensity scales was implemented. Soil information can be handled through EC8 soil classes (EC-8 2004), and there are several possible options the user can choose to manage site effects (soil amplification/deamplification).
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QuakeIST® is written in C++ and interacts (but do not rely on them) with virtually all platforms of geographical information system software (GIS), such as ESRI, QuantumGIS, and others, to create maps and measure the possible impact caused by earthquakes in urban systems.
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Different types of assets can be modeled (buildings, schools, bridges, various types of networks – water, power-electricity, gas, communications-telecom, population, etc.).
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QuakeIST® contains algorithms for propagation effects and earthquake impact assessment.
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Losses maps and maps illustrating the cascade effects can be plotted for a given asset typology.
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The Disruption index can be presented for a city, a region or plotted in a geographic environment. This latest option is very important to share information to general public (people without a scientific background).
9.3 New Advancements: Interdependences and Cascade Effects
9.3.1 Disruption Index
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Direct losses: losses resulting from direct impact to buildings and infrastructures.
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Indirect losses: losses resulting from the event but not from its direct impact, for example, transport disruption, business losses that can’t be made up, losses of family income, etc.
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Tangible losses: loss of things that have a monetary (replacement) value, for example, buildings, livestock, infrastructure, etc.
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Intangible losses: loss of things that cannot be bought and sold, for example, lives and injuries, heritage, and others.
9.3.1.1 Structuring Disruption Index Model
9.3.1.2 Impact Assessment
Criteria | Descriptors |
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Environment | Identify materials or elements that can pose a substantial or potential hazard to human health or the environment when improperly managed: soil and water contamination, radiation, radioactive waste, oil spills, etc. It also assess the impact of service disruption of urban hygiene/public health from debris storage (building materials, personal property, and sediment from mudslides), contamination of water (unsafe drinking water and sanitation) and the high concentration of people in the same space |
Housing | Evaluates whether a particular area may or may not be occupied for housing function as a result of the damage, also indicates alternative housing/shelter |
Food | Evaluates if the food is accessible to the majority of the population and identifies alternatives to their supply (coping strategies) |
Healthcare | Determines if the population is served by a sufficient number of health facilities |
Education | Measures the discontinuity of education and the number of people without school lessons and identifies alternatives for recovery |
Employment | Evaluates whether a certain area retains its activity as a result of the damage after the earthquake and identify new clusters of jobs that can be generated |
Impact level | Description of the impact level |
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V | From serious disruption at physical and functional level to paralysis of the entire system: buildings, population, infrastructure, health, mobility, administrative and political structures, among others. Lack of conditions for the exercise of the functions and activities of daily life. High cost for recover |
IV | Starts the paralysis of main buildings, housing, administrative and political systems. The region affected by the disaster presents moderate damage and a slice percentage of total collapse of buildings, as well as victims and injuries and a considerable number of homeless because their houses have been damaged, which, although not collapse, are enough to lose its function of housing. Normal daily activities are disrupted; school activities are suspended; economic activities are at a stand-still |
III | Part of the population may permanently lose their property and need to permanent be relocated, which means strong disturbances of everyday life. This level is determined by significant dysfunction in terms of equipment’s, critical infrastructures and losses of some assets and certain disorders involving the conduct of professional activities for some time. The most affected areas show significant problems in mobility due to the existence of debris or damage to the road network. Starts significant problems in providing food and water, which must be ensured by the Civil Protection |
II | The region affected by the disaster presents few homeless (about 5 %) due to the occurrence of some damage to buildings, affecting the habitability of a given geographical area. Some people may experience problems of access to water, electricity and/or gas. Some cases require temporary relocation |
I | The region affected by the disaster continues with their normal functions. No injured, killed or displaced people are registered. Some light damage may occur (non-structural damage) that can be repaired in a short time and sometimes exists a temporary service interruption. The political process begins with an awareness that the problem exists as well as some investments in strengthening policy and risk mitigation is/should be made |
9.3.1.3 DI Application: Portugal
1755 Earthquake Scenario (M 8.7): Algarve Region in Portugal
9.4 Final Remarks
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earthquakes are having a major impact on millions of people every year and therefore earthquake risk management measures need to be implemented in the short term;
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failure to enforce and implement appropriate measures could increase the impact of earthquake events and undermine the resilience of a system;
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promote a risk management approach in dealing with earthquakes, including prevention, mitigation and response;
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continuous communication to raise awareness and reinforce preparedness is necessary.