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1989 | Buch

Economics in Theory and Practice: An Eclectic Approach

Essays in Honor of F. G. Adams

herausgegeben von: Lawrence R. Klein, Jaime Marquez

Verlag: Springer Netherlands

Buchreihe : Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics

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Über dieses Buch

Lawrence Klein, University of Pennsylvania Jaime Marquez, Federal Reserve BoarrI* All examination of the economics literature over the last twenty years reveals a marked tendency towards polarisation. On the one hand, there has been a propensity to develop theoretical models which have little connection with either empirical verification or problems requiring immediate attention. On the other iland, empirical analyses are generally typified by testing for its own sake, with limited examination of the implications of the results. As a result, the number of papers confronting theory with facts towards the solution of economic problems has been on the decline for years. To fill this growing gap in the literature, we have invited a number of authors to write papers using both theoretical and empirical techniques to address current issues of interest to the profession at large: the US trade deficit and the global implications of policies that attempt to reduce it, the international ramifications of the debt crisis, the international oil market and its implications for the US oil industry, and the development of new econometric techniques. In addressing these issues, each author has approached the subject matter from an eclectic standpoint - that is, avoiding strict adherence to a given doctrine.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Frontiers in Forecasting and Econometric Modelling

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Combinations of High and Low Frequency Data in Macroeconometric Models
Abstract
Econometricians who try to follow and project the overall economy as closely as possible (“Economy Watchers”) frequently base their main forecasts on macroeconometric models, supplemented by the frequent flow — almost daily — of indicative information. As soon as reports are prepared about some specific area of economic activity, they are released to the public. At the extreme, we have instantaneous market reports, originating with the start of the day at the international date line and moving with the sun to Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sidney/Melbourne, Singapore, Frankfurt/Paris, London, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles/San Francisco. These data cover both commodity and financial market reports.
L. R. Klein, E. Sojo
Chapter 2. Stochastic Simulation, Prediction and Validation of Nonlinear Models
Abstract
Many econometric models for forecasting and policy analysis consist of a statistically estimated dynamic system of nonlinear stochastic equations. The distinguishing feature of these models is the nonlinearity of the solution for the endogenous variables in terms of model disturbances. Additionally, they are dynamic — with lagged endogenous variables and/or serially correlated errors. Models of macroeconomic systems and limited dependent variables in a simultaneous setting are notable examples.
Roberto S. Mariano, Bryan W. Brown
Chapter 3. An Integrated Exhaustible Resource Model of Copper Market Dynamics
Abstract
A longstanding problem in the modelling of resource markets in general and mineral markets in particular has been the lack of a model specification suitable for explaining long run as well as short run market adjustments. One possible solution for solving this problem considered here is to integrate relevant aspects of the rational extractions model (REM) and the standard commodity model (SCM) into a single model framework. The REM enables us to explain long run resource depletion and the possibility of rising extraction costs which would provide an incentive for establishing reserve additions. The SCM accommodates resources held in the form of above-ground materials inventories and emphasises short run market equilibrium forces such as production, consumption and inventory holding. The model framework under scrutiny thus embodies dynamic market disequilibrium where stock adjustments affect flow equilibrium in the form of below-ground reserve stocks and above-ground inventory stocks. Other factors frequently neglected, but presently included are production capacity and secondary supply.
Walter C. Labys

Trade, Debt, and Development

Frontmatter
Chapter 4. The Impact of Commodity Price Instability: Experiments with a General Equilibrium Model for Indonesia
Abstract
Fluctuations in international commodity prices long have been claimed to have deleterious effects on the producing countries. This claim has lead to considerable efforts to introduce international policies that might mitigate such effects, particularly by UNCTAD most notably in its Integrated Commodity Program and by the IMF in its Compensating Financing Facility. It also has led to a number of studies of its validity, primarily using cross-sectional data, but also, in fewer cases, using economy wide models for case studies.1 Little work has been undertaken, however, in evaluating the impact of commodity price instability within the theoretically consistent economy wide framework of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, though such models have been used to explore related questions, such as the impact of an one way movement in the terms of trade and of policy options to such a movement (e.g., Dick, Gupta, Mayer, and Vincent, 1983; Gelb, 1985).
Jere R. Behrman, Jeffrey D. Lewis, Sherif Lofti
Chapter 5. Commodity Price Contractions, Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Economies: The Venezuelan Case
Abstract
One of the consequences of the emergence of the Latin American foreign debt crisis in 1982 has been a growing attention to the problem of the incompatibility between internal economic growth and the honouring of external commitments by heavily indebted countries suffering the effects of a strong deterioration of their terms of trade. The latter problem, in turn, is the result of the collapse of the prices for their main export products, usually a limited gamut of primary commodities, which are particularly subject to extreme price fluctuations.
Pedro A. Palma
Chapter 6. Income and Price Elasticities of Foreign Trade Flows: Econometric Estimation and Analysis of the US Trade Deficit
Abstract
That the rest of the world will absorb the reduction of the US trade deficit is a matter of accounting: because this deficit is the trade surplus of the rest of the world, eliminating one means eliminating the other. What is not so evident is which countries will absorb this reduction, an issue of growing interest in view of the significant re-allocation of productive factors that are likely to emerge. That the US trade deficit will improve in response to a real depreciation of the dollar is not in doubt. What is not so clear is how long it will take, an important question given the constraints that external imbalances impose on the design of macroeconomic policy.
Jaime Marquez

Industrial Organisation and Government Policy

Frontmatter
Chapter 7. Previous Cartel Experience: Any Lessons for OPEC?
Abstract
The remarkable success of the OPEC cartel over the last fifteen years has challenged the widely held view among economists that cartels are inherently unstable and short lived. Econometric tests of alternative models of OPEC behaviour point clearly to the conclusion that OPEC is a cartel and owes its success to the willingness of the bulk of its 13 members to voluntarily restrict crude oil production.1 While OPEC appears to have similar structural characteristics as other cartels, its performance has confounded some of the leading economic experts. For example, in Milton Friedman’s now infamous article in Newsweek on March 4, 1974, he predicted that the cartel would soon collapse.2 Morris Adelman in his 1972 article in Foreign Policy is even more explicit:3
“Every cartel has in time been destroyed by one then some members chiselling and cheating; without the instrument of the multinational companies and the cooperation of the consuming countries, OPEC would be an ordinary cartel.”
James M. Griffin
Chapter 8. The Implications for Future Contingency Planning of the 1979 Gasoline Shortage
Abstract
This paper examines the origins and management of the 1979 oil crisis in search of policy implications for the next oil shortage. Deliveries of gasoline were insufficient to meet demand during the first eight months of 1979; gasoline represented half of all refinery output.1
Leslie E. Grayson, Robert K. Morris
Chapter 9. International Trade, Investment, and American Cities And Regions
Abstract
In this chapter I set out some working hypotheses about the role of cities in today’s changing international division of labour (IDOL), within the context of more general structural change1. In doing so, I examine the complex ways in which cities have evolved over time, how they are centres for political and economic struggle, and how public policies affect metropolises.
Norman J. Glickman
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Economics in Theory and Practice: An Eclectic Approach
herausgegeben von
Lawrence R. Klein
Jaime Marquez
Copyright-Jahr
1989
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Electronic ISBN
978-94-009-0463-7
Print ISBN
978-94-010-6693-8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0463-7