Effects of intensified forestry on the landscape-scale extinction risk of dead wood dependent species

In the future, a significant proportion of Northern forests may become intensively managed through the planting of monospecific stands of native or introduced trees, and the use of multiple silvicultural treatments such as forest fertilization. Such an intensification of management in selected parts of the landscape is suggested by different zoning models, for example the Triad approach, which is under evaluation in some regions of North America. In this study, based on Fennoscandian conditions, we predicted landscape-scale extinction risks of five hypothetical model insect species dependent on fresh dead wood from Norway spruce (Picea abies), by simulating colonizations and local extinctions in forest stands. Intensified forestry applied to 50% of the spruce stands led to strongly increased extinction risks of all species during the following 150 years. For one species—the sun-exposure specialist—there were strong effects already after 50 years. The negative effects of intensive plantation forestry could be compensated for by taking greater biodiversity conservation measures in other managed forests or by setting aside more forests. This is consistent with the Triad model, which is according to our analyzes an effective way to decrease extinction risks, especially for the short-dispersing species and the species associated with closed forest. A zoning of forest land into intensive forestry, conventional forestry, and set asides may be better at combining increased timber production and maintenance of biodiversity in comparison to landscapes where all production forests are managed in the same way.