Environmental Problems of Central Asia and their Economic, Social and Security Impacts

The geographic area of Central Asia is largely arid and semi-arid and very sensitive to environmental perturbations. Recent changes in social structures and resource management practices, accompanied by regional climate change, have caused substantial environmental concerns. The Aral Sea has shrunk by almost 30% over the past two decades, the flow rate of the two major rivers in the region, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, has been reduced significantly due to overdraws along their courses from intensified irrigation and industrial use, soil salinization problems have worsened due to increased surface evaporation, snow covers and glaciers have receded due to regional climate change and thus reduced freshwater supplies to the region, and, as a result, the local economy has been significantly impacted to the extent that the potential for social unrest is a big concern. There is a need to develop new technologies to mitigate these environmental problems and at the same time there is a critical need to develop adaptation strategies to cope with continued environmental change. This chapter outlines at a broad scale the environmental issues of the region and potential socioeconomic consequences.

Problems of using, monitoring, managing, and protecting water resources of the Aral Sea basin are pressing because of the extremely limited nature of these resources, increasing pollution levels, and the threat of a shrinking — and gradually disappearing — Aral Sea. Results from the author's long-term research on monitoring and protection of water of the main rivers — the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya — are provided. The sources of pollution and problems in protecting water and land resources of the Aral Sea basin are discussed. The problems of return waters and underground water formation and opportunities for their use are also discussed. The results of research on migration and distribution of polluting substances (heavy metals) in the main rivers of the Aral Sea basin are considered.

The Aral Sea is a large, terminal lake in Central Asia that has undergone rapid desiccation accompanied by severe environmental degradation. This paper summarizes the key parameters of this phenomenon and discusses the use of satellite remote sensing to study and monitor the Aral Sea and its surrounding area.

In using drylands ecosystems, human societies have adopted various strategies ranging from extensive nomadic pastures to intensive irrigated cash crop production. Monitoring the condition and performance of the various systems is essential to ensure their sustainability and to suggest and test adaptations to changing conditions (whether climatic or socio-economic). Earth observation techniques are providing unique datasets for monitoring the spatial and temporal dynamics of large areas. The challenges in using these data for assessing dryland condition are discussed here through two case studies. The first is a test site of Menzel Habib in southern Tunisia which has been subjected to a large number of research projects on ecology and rangeland degradation. Using a time series of Landsat images (MSS and TM) spanning more than 30 years, after registration and inter-calibration of the images, changes in land surface characteristics have been monitored. After an overview of techniques to detect and analyze changes, their interpretation in terms of ecological condition and desertification trend is discussed. In the second case, the irrigated agricultural plain of the Marrakesh region in southern Morocco has been subjected to intensive monitoring by high resolution satellites. A test area with large irrigated agricultural fields has been monitored during three growing seasons using a time series of images with high temporal repetition. Vegetation indices allowed us to follow the crops' development by characterizing the leaf area index (LAI) development throughout the season. Using ground measurements and soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer models (SVAT) the evolution of corresponding evapo-transpiration could be computed, allowing us to estimate the total amount of water consumed by the crops. Comparing it to the crop water requirement, the efficiency of the irrigation systems can be monitored over the whole area covered by the satellite imagery. As a conclusion, the array of EO techniques available and the foreseeable developments of satellite monitoring of drylands are discussed.

The Aral Sea, despite being the 4th largest lake in the world up to 1960, has now split into six separate water bodies. This break-up and desiccation resulted overwhelmingly from upstream irrigation withdrawals from the two main influent rivers, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya. The negative effects on both the lake's ecosystem due to declining water level and increasing salinity, as well as the profound socioeconomic and human impacts to the riparian populations are well documented. This paper focuses on the conservation and rehabilitation efforts of the remnant water bodies with a focus on four key areas: the Northern (Small) Aral and its ecosystem; the Southern (Large) Aral and its ecosystem; the delta and deltaic water bodies of the Syr Darya; and the delta and deltaic water bodies of the Amu Darya. It is encouraging to note the reversal of degradation in the Northern Aral after the creation of a dike at Berg's Strait in 1992. The dike washed out in 1999 but has been replaced with a new structurally sound dike. The water level in the Northern Aral has increased several meters and salinity is returning to levels that can sustain the pre-1960 ecosystem. However, much less success has been seen regarding the Southern Aral, which continues its retreat and hypersalinization. There have been recent efforts also in the

Changed ambient conditions in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB) in Central Asia have led to drastically decreased river discharges into the Aral Sea during the twentieth century. This decrease has in turn led to the still ongoing Aral Sea desiccation and to particularly adverse environmental effects, in terms of both affected number of people and degree of environmental degradation in the ASDB. We have used a distributed basin-scale hydrological balance modeling approach for estimating the relative influences of agricultural irrigation and climate change, respectively, on observed decreases of river discharges in the ASDB. Results show that water losses through evapotranspiration increased as a result of higher temperatures in the basin after 1950. However, these increases in evapotranspiration loss due to rising temperatures alone are smaller than the water gains caused by increased precipitation in the ASDB over the same time period. Climatic changes can therefore not at all have contributed to the observed drying of the rivers in the basin, at least not so far. By contrast, the evapotranspiration loss increases from the expanded agricultural irrigation in the area can fully explain the decreased river discharges and the present water scarcity in the ASDB. We further show that the largest increase (1.85°C) in seasonal average temperature in the basin has occurred in the winter, whereas the smallest increase (0.69°C) has occurred in the summer. This result is consistent with a surface temperature cooling effect of intense irrigation in the summer, which should have increased since the 1950s due to the evapo-transpiration increase implied by the major irrigation expansion in the ASDB.

In this chapter, based on literature review and our own data analysis, biosensors were developed based on biosensor principles. Specifically, biosensors intended for the determination of total toxicity, gene toxicity, and for detecting groups of toxic elements and individual toxins are described in detail. The following individual toxins were singled out using biosensors: mycotoxins, phenol substances, surfactants, and cyanides, as well as formaldehyde and volatile carbonyls. These sensors can be used in environmental assessments to detect and monitor chemicals commonly used agriculture management, and even terrorist weapons.

This paper describes the nature and problems of rangelands in Kazakhstan. A prototype rangeland monitoring program based on an existing monitoring program developed for use in the Soviet Union is described. The monitoring approach has been modified to use the same simulation model, but more modern remotely sensed data is being incorporated into the approach as well. Results from the Balkhash area of Kazakhstan are presented to show progress to date. Current plans are to continue to develop this approach for the study area, and if feasible, apply the approach nationally.

This study deals with possible changes in agriculture under the influence of climate change and discusses the methods of adaptation in Kazakhstan.

This chapter describes a methodological approach to be used in developing regional climate change scenarios for southeastern Kazakhstan. It also addresses possibilities for using these scenarios in impact assessments in various economic and natural resource sectors. The regional scenarios are based on the output data of the global climate models and their interpretation at a case site in the Lake Balkhash basin.

This chapter presents results from assessments of evapotranspiration from agricultural fields and possible changes in connection with climate change in the context of Northern Kazakhstan — the main region of spring wheat sowings in the Republic of Kazakhstan. In calculations of evapotranspiration, the Penman-Monteith modern method was employed, as advised by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for these purposes.

This chapter presents the results of a cloud moisture source analysis employing meteorological radar over northern Kazakhstan and meteorological station data in the radar coverage limit zone.

This chapter describes both the total ozone content (TOC) field types over the Republic of Kazakhstan and the weather situations that cause extreme TOC concentrations, amid wider trends of global warming.

This study reports on the water supply problem for pasture lands in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It uses data from experiment sites in the watering places of the Bozoy pastures in Kazakhstan's Balkhash region, and it includes an evaluation of mineshaft and tube wells — potential watering points in the pastures of the Balkhash region in the event it is possible to rehabilitate them.

This study surveys environmental conditions in the Republic of Kazakhstan in terms of: atmospheric pollution, degradation of agricultural lands, production and consumption of waste, water loss and sewage, conditions of irrigated lands, and socio-economic indicators for the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2006.

The extensive use of water in agriculture in the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya basins has led to the desiccation of the Aral Sea. The lack of water pricing in Uzbekistan does not provide incentives for local agricultural producers to improve water use efficiency. Although water pricing may decrease water intake in and increase its outflow from Khorezm to the Aral Sea, the impacts of this policy on regional consumers and agricultural producers can be random. Different rates of water prices will cause different regional cropping patterns, which will bring a new system of commodity prices and, as a result, will affect the population income and food consumption in the region. Therefore, a proper rate of water pricing should be derived and its impact on regional agriculture should be established. To this end, this policy evaluation, which is part of a wider Ph.D. research project, consists of a microeconomic analysis of agricultural reforms in Khorezm based on a sector model (KhoRASM) which reflects the unique features of the region's agriculture. The model integrates three components: (1) an agricultural sector model; (2) a linear supply module with three types of agricultural producers; and (3) a flexible demand system (Normalized Quadratic-Quadratic Expenditure System) with two types of consumers. The specific objective of this study is to provide information about possibilities of introducing water pricing such that economic efficiency of water use in the region can be improved.

Water scarcity on Northern Cyprus started in the 1960s and continued thereafter, prompting several studies and research to identify levels of water deficiency on the whole island. The backbone of the country's economy is agriculture, and mostly small-scale farming is practiced. Citrus fruit cultivation produces the majority of exports from Northern Cyprus. Hence, irrigation plays a great role in achieving efficient yields of these fruits. In 1997, the General Directorate of the State Hydraulic Works of Turkey (DSI) prepared a report for the Guzelyurt area. Uncontrolled irrigation of the fields, delayed replacement of old irrigation techniques with modern ones, and poor conveyance efficiency of municipal pipelines and network systems caused over-abstraction of water from available aquifers. This phenomenon resulted in higher levels of salt contamination due to salt-water intrusion in the coastal aquifers. In this study, economic, environmental, and social impacts of water problems on Northern Cyprus are examined and discussed.

This study evaluated the expected impacts that water shortage will have on crop production and farm net income on a typical private farm in Namangan region, Uzbekistan. A Linear Programming (LP) model is used to find the combination of responses that will leave the farmer with the highest possible net income given the levels of water available. If improved irrigation practices are not a realistic alternative, farmers are left with no ways to avoid deficit irrigation when water is short, and cotton production and farm net income both fall almost in proportion to the water deficit. However, if improved irrigation practices are adopted, the model indicates that full production and income can be sustained with about 20% less water in the critical period. The improved methods also give more timely and uniform irrigation that, according to research results, will increase yields and income by more than enough to pay for the extra labor required.

Availability of water is a pre-condition for sustainable land use in any given area. Reclaiming water from irrigation is an alternative option that must be examined in order to meet water demands under conditions of increasing water deficits in the Aral Sea basin. In the territory of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, water flowing in the irrigation drainage network is mostly diverted beyond the boundaries of irrigated lands. As a result, a significant volume of water in the region is wasted due to a lack of return/ re-use in the irrigation process. Additionally, in places where irrigation drainage waters accumulate with different levels of mineralization, the lands are degraded ecologically. Some Central Asian and Near Eastern countries have had positive experiences with return water re-use, including water with low levels of mineralization, for growing different agricultural crops and for supplying water for pastures. Some scientists from Uzbekistan also have conducted fragment-based pilot research to identify the relationships between the mineralization levels of irrigation drainage water for irrigation and yields. The research was experimental in character. It was conducted by selecting the optimal level of mineralization. However, the mechanisms that explain this relationship in terms of the quality of irrigation drainage water are yet to be studied. Researching the interrelationships between water quality structure and soil conditions, physical-chemical processes, the transformations of main pollutants (within soil-waters and plant systems) that occur in the processes of irrigation that use run-off water, will enable determination of the optimal ratio of irrigation water and run-off water mix in order to achieve not only sustainable crop yield but also improve soil conditions and quality of produced crops.

Central Asia Still Remains As An Area Of Substantial Water Stress Problems Caused By Climate Change, Over-Consumption Of Water Resources And Soil Salinization. The Rapid Recession Of Glaciers Along With A Concurrent Increasing Frequency And Intensity Of Extreme Droughts Has Led To A Progressive Reduction Of The Already Scarce Resources. As In Many Other Arid And Semi-Arid Zones, Surface Waters In Central Asia Are Heavily Regulated By Extended River-Reservoir Systems, Which Affect Both The Quantity And The Quality Of Water. The Large Dams And Reservoirs Of The Amu Darya Basin Should Not Only Be A Matter Of International Dispute, But Also Considered As An Option To Adapt To Climate And Global Change And To The Future Water Shortage In The Region. With The Nurek And Rogun Dams In The Upstream Part Of The Amu Darya Basin And The Downstream Dam System, The Tuyamuyun Hydroengineering Complex (Thc), The Region Already Has A High Potential For Improving The Future Water Supply By Adapting The Management Of The Dams According To Site Specifications. The Main Scope Of This Study Is To Introduce This Potential As An Applicable Instrument For Implementing A Sustainable Water Management Strategy In The Amu Darya

Turkey, legally cultivated poppy fields yield a cash crop that is essential in the rural livelihoods of particular households and communities. Licensed farmers are able to earn far more from harvesting both poppy seeds and the remaining opiate-containing capsules that are sold to the state for use in the medical morphine industry than from any other crops. Although the cultivation of poppies in Turkey was once used for opium and heroin, among other commodities, a controlled reintroduction of poppies occurred in the 1970s following a nation-wide eradication program. Though the eradication program may be critiqued due to its geopolitical contexts and goals, the subsequent reintroduction of poppies and the emergence of this legal industry established a basis for ecological and economic stability at the scale of local communities. Moreover, for many Turkish farmers and others, it was regarded as a step towards the promotion of democracy at the scale of the nation-state. Relying on both fieldwork and archival research, this chapter looks at the historic and contemporary examples provided by Turkey and considers the ongoing challenges posed by poppies in the case of Afghanistan. Based on this review of these two different situations involving poppies, it is suggested that Turkey's instance provides powerful lessons for policy makers seeking to promote both security and sustainability throughout Eurasia and in Afghanistan, in particular.

This paper addresses the importance of distributive issues for environmental policy-making in Central Asian countries. Environmental problems in Central Asian countries are severe and require non-marginal policy interventions. Non-marginal interventions, however, are likely to lead to significant negative economic impacts on well-defined groups of people within Central Asian societies. The paper argues that distributive issues merit consideration in the process of policy-making. Implementing policies that neglect those negatively affected by them can lead to outcomes that are ultimately undesirable from a social perspective. Distributive issues therefore impose additional constraints on environmental policy and are likely to be salient features in Central Asian policy-making over the short to medium term.

This paper presents lessons from environmental management in Bulgarian agriculture for Central Asian countries. Comparative institutional analysis is employed to evaluate the potential of diverse governing modes to deal with environmental problems and risks, protect absolute and contracted eco-rights, stimulate eco-investment, and intensify and coordinate eco-activities. Firstly, we assess market efficiency, private and public modes in Bulgarian agriculture, and the identity of major environmental challenges. Next we withdraw conclusions about how positive and negative experiences from the Bulgarian transition could be used to modernize environmental management in Central Asia. The post-communist transformation of Bulgarian agriculture has been associated with a relaxation of general environmental pressure, but also has brought about significant new problems, such as degradation and contamination of farmland, pollution of surface and ground waters, loss of biodiversity, etc. Central Asian countries should adapt the Bulgarian experience to their specific economic, institutional and natural environment. More particularly, there is a need to modernize institutional structures by introducing new eco-rights, redistributing rights to natural resources, liberalizing eco-activities, and improving systems of enforcement of eco-rights. Next, it is necessary to apply a collaborative, multi-disciplinary approach in governing public support, research, education and extension programs embracing economic, social, environmental, and other aspects of agrarian sustainability. It is also important to select more effective modes for public intervention (regulation, assistance, financing, and partnership with the private sector) and enhance direct public involvement in environmental preservation and improvement. Furthermore, different forms of public and

Depletion of water resources requires us to search for less conventional strategies for water preservation and irrigation. Sustainable management of such water resources along with the development of sustainable irrigation systems will contribute stability to agricultural yield — a primary concern in all riparian countries, like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan. This paper attempts to identify priorities in reconstruction assistance planned for all riparian states on the Amu Darya. The problems of growing, processing, and trafficking illicit drugs in Afghanistan is then analyzed, searching for the economic, social, and political causes, with an emphasis on its implications for the future development and the geopolitical picture of the Central Asian region.

Cotton in Central Asia has a reputation for causing the twentieth-century ecological catastrophe known as the Aral Sea crisis. The cotton industry was blamed for political repression, economic stagnation, widespread poverty and environmental degradation in the region.¹ The cotton monoculture practices imposed during the former Soviet era not only diverted massive amounts of water from the Amu Darya, one of the two main feeders of the Aral Sea, but also caused ecological problems, such as desertification, water and soil salinization, and air and water pollution due to the run-off of pesticides and fertilizers. The consequences and environmental costs proved to be drastic: dying of the sea, deterioration of the environment for more than five million people living in the region of the sea, high rates of disease incidents, as well as even farther-reaching ecological problems. However, cotton is of paramount importance to Uzbekistan, a backbone of its economy. Not only it does account for a considerable share in foreign exchange revenues and GDP, but it also provides employment and income security for a large share of the rural population. Concurrently, affected by fluctuations in prices on the world cotton market, the export of cotton fiber caused the government of Uzbekistan a loss of about US$1.5 billion between 1998 and 2001.² Hence a continuation of the cotton monoculture and export of low value fiber can no longer be regarded as the vehicle for permanent, broad-based, and environmentally sustainable growth. A shift from the primary commodity exports to the export of value added cotton products and the removal of trade barriers became a key aspect of recent reforms. There is definitely scope for maintaining and even increasing the returns from cotton without an increase in cotton areas. Decreasing cotton areas, shifting land unsuitable for cotton to other crops, or establishing alternative uses such as tree plantations or pastures can contribute greatly to ongoing attempts to prevent or mitigate further aggravation of the ecological situation in the region. Value Chain Analysis was applied in the study region Khorezm to get a comprehensive picture of the entire cotton sector by describing the cotton flows, actors involved and their interrelationships, costs of production, and income distribution along the cotton chain. This approach allowed the assessment of some scenarios aimed at reducing the dependence on cotton while maintaining income both to the state and the farmers, as well as the estimation of ecological impacts of reforms in the cotton sector. For example, export revenue of the baseline scenario could be maintained with a simultaneous reduction in raw cotton areas of 3.5 times, in the Khorezm region alone. Under this scenario, about 80,000 ha could be released from state orders and diversified for alternative crops or land uses (tree plantations or forage crops), thus making agriculture more environmentally friendly while maintaining its economic importance.

The article describes the application of a completely new tool, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), in the Republic of Belarus. On the basis of previous experience obtained during participation in the international pilot projects, the authors analyze advantages of the strategic environmental assessment application, current problems in the process of SEA implementation, the experience of the methodological recommendation document development and possible ways of including SEA in a planning process. The application of the SEA approach is especially important today in the context of the Republic of Belarus' future inclusion in the Kyiv Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment and the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a trans-boundary context.

Environmental problems undermine sustainable development of cities. Environmental protection — and the protection of plants, in particular — is a compulsory element for sustainable urban management. Urban greenery is thus a key natural resource for a city; besides, vegetation has vast health and aesthetic significance for people. Plants are able to reduce many pollutants in the environment, and they create specific microclimates by decreasing wind, noise, and solar irradiation. On the other hand, urban environmental effects on different aspects of plants' vital functions modify the state of vegetation vastly. These modifications touch individual physiological and morphological parameters, longevity, growth, and evolution, and increase the tolerance of urban plants to different pressures such as drought, cold or vermin. It is obvious that developing a system of monitoring urban greenery is an essential task for any city. This system is able to give information related to the current state of urban vegetation and forecast various situations. In this paper, some problems in monitoring urban vegetation are described. Research presented includes developing a state framework and associated program “Assessment of the ecological state of Tashkent”. Urban plants, including dominating species of trees, shrubs, and lawn grasses, were the subjects of this study. Reducing linear growth, inhibiting significant accumulation of heavy metals, and increasing photosynthetic efficiency coefficients were revealed for urban green spaces in different sites in Tashkent under moderately increasing levels of air, water, and soil pollution. Moreover, it has been noticed that new trees, shrubs, and grasses are often lost due to inappropriate or poor care and because of overuse. It is clear that any city will develop sustainably with the adoption of natural resource conservation practices in the city's area, as the natural resources assure economic growth and high quality of life for the population.