Evaluating adaptive capacity and identifying climate change barriers to adaptation (case study: Qarranqu Basin, Iran)

Climate change will affect water resources by altering the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation. This study provides a framework for assessing the adaptive capacity of water resources to the effects of climate change. This paper has been designed in two parts: in part I, adaptive capacity was evaluated, and in part II, the barriers to adaptation to climate change were identified. Adaptive capacity has been assessed in two sections: informal and formal institutions. A questionnaire was designed to assess the adaptive capacity of informal institutions, and the adaptive capacity score was calculated. In addition, the laws related to water resources management from 1905 to 2021 were evaluated as formal institutions of water.

The findings in part I show that the adaptive capacity of the informal institution is -0.139, and the adaptive capacity of the formal institution during the period 1905–2021 is − 0.101, − 0.114, − 0.114, − 0.133, and − 0.101. According to the results, the adaptive capacity of formal and informal institutions in this basin is weak. In part II, the barriers to adaptation have been identified. This issue was further investigated by interviews with key actors. The interviews were analyzed by the Thematic method and Maxqda2020 software. Afterward, the adaptation barriers to climate change were categorized into three Themes: actor's characteristics, structural quality, and environmental quality. Finally, the causal relationships between these barriers were indicated, and proper solutions such as open access to information, expansion of research and development, access to empowerment programs, decentralization, and also development of a comprehensive plan for adapting to climate change were proposed.