Evaluation of the effect of unsustainable urban development on water bankruptcy in arid regions using the system dynamics method: case of Yazd, Iran

This study aims to illustrate the effects of urban development on water resilience in arid regions. Under the influence of increasing water stress and lack of optimal management, arid lands cannot support industrial and urban development and gradually suffer from water bankruptcy. In this study, Yazd, characterized by a dry and desert climate, was selected as a case study. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and the system dynamics (SD) method were employed to demonstrate the cause-and-effect relationships of water resilience across various scenarios. Industrial development, contributing to a 68% increase, and urban development, with a 62% increase, were identified as significant driving forces. Additionally, pressures on water resources included a 29% rise in industrial water demand, a 41% increase in domestic water demand, and a worsening drought condition. Modeling results indicate that the continuation of urban and industrial development, with an 18% increase in water dependence, will exacerbate water scarcity and water bankruptcy by 50% and 90% by 2030, respectively. Meanwhile, the scenario that involves no increase in water demand in these two sectors improves water shortage and water bankruptcy by 57 and 19%, respectively. Also, the policy scenario of not increasing water production reduces the rate of land subsidence and water bankruptcy by 8% and 52%, respectively. The findings of this study underscore the necessity of aligning land-use planning with the challenges posed by expanding urban and industrial development. It is imperative to consider the limited land capacity and the vulnerability of water resources in arid regions.