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Erschienen in:
Recent Advances in Computational Intelligence in Defense and Security Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Evolving Narrations of Strategic Defence and Security Scenarios for Computational Scenario Planning

verfasst von : Kun Wang, Eleni Petraki, Hussein Abbass

Erschienen in: Recent Advances in Computational Intelligence in Defense and Security

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Defence and security organisations rely on the use of scenarios for a wide range of activities; from strategic and contingency planning to training and experimentation exercises. In the grand strategic space, scenarios normally take the form of linguistic stories, whereby a picture of a context is painted using storytelling principles. The manner in which these stories are narrated can paint different mental models in planners’ minds and open opportunities for the realisation of different contextualisations and initialisations of these stories. In this chapter, we review some scenario design methods in the defence and security domain. We then illustrate how evolutionary computation techniques can be used to evolve different narrations of a strategic story. First, we present a simple representation of a story that allows evolution to operate on it in a simple manner. However, the simplicity of the representation comes with the cost of designing a set of linguistic constraints and transformations to guarantee that any random chromosome can get transformed into a unique coherent and causally consistent story. Second, we demonstrate that the representation being utilised in this approach can simultaneously serve as the basis to form a strategic story as well as the basis to design simulation models to evaluate these stories. This flexibility fulfils a large gap in current scenario planning methodologies, whereby the strategic scenario is represented in the form of a linguistic story, while the evaluation of that scenario is completely left for the human to subjectively decide on it.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Improving Load Signal and Fatigue Life Estimation for Helicopter Components Using Computational Intelligence Techniques
Nächstes Kapitel A Review of the Use of Computational Intelligence in the Design of Military Surveillance Networks
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Fußnoten
1
In this chapter, the implicit Space parameter of an event is not added because it involves a concrete thing—a participant including a Character or an Object—in the story, while the participants of events are left untouched in a generated narration.
 
2
A flashback is a story played backward. It can be a full flashback in which the whole story is played backward, or a partial flashback in which a subset of events are played backward, with the rest of the events played forward.
 
3
Using pure random generation, slim chances (\(\frac{4}{7! \times 6!}\)) can be expected to obtain a narration that possesses comparatively high values of consistT and consistS at the same time.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Evolving Narrations of Strategic Defence and Security Scenarios for Computational Scenario Planning
verfasst von
Kun Wang
Eleni Petraki
Hussein Abbass
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Buch
Recent Advances in Computational Intelligence in Defense and Security

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-26448-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-26450-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26450-9_23

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